Explain: Calvin = no D?

[Kobe8.24]

Someone explain this to me. Getting Calvin does not mean we can't substantially upgrade our defense! I propose our 1st and 3rd as well as next years 1st, and people tell me (or others with similar idea) that our Defense needs too much help. I'm not understanding this. This is the way I see it, try to explain which step I mess up on, or maybe you'll agree w/ me:

We still can get AD to help our pass rush, Hood to help at CB, and Hamlin/Grant to help at Safety. Even if we only got 2 of them, w/ our draft:

by having 6 more picks through round 4 (maybe 7 if we trade Smiley) we can add a starter in the second for sure, and depth or possibly a starter in rounds 3 and 4.

What we need on D are a:

NT(not available in rd 1 anyway)

Safety(can be signed as a FA, or could draft some1 in rd 2 or 3)
pass rush OLB(likely to get AD),

ILB (not going to get one in 1st rd anyway), and

DE (would be only case against trading our 1st, but there are good options later in draft, and we are still ok w/ what we got now)

That's 5 defensive needs. We'd get 2(maybe 3) of them in FA, and would have 6(maybe 7) picks through rd 4 to solve 3(maybe 2) needs and add depth on D. And to add to this, we'd likely spend at least a rd 4 pick on a WR anyway, why not get the best one?

If someone could explain what the big problem about trading for Calvin after reading the info above, that would be greatly appreciated, Thanks.

[Optimus Prime]

http://i166.photobucket.com/albums/u111/thundercat_86/happy.jpg

[Kobe8.24]

http://i166.photobucket.com/albums/u111/thundercat_86/happy.jpg

I'm sorry, I don't get it. Does that mean that you think I'm in fantasyland, or do you see the light?

[MisfitZ]

Someone explain this to me. Getting Calvin does not mean we can't substantially upgrade our defense! I propose our 1st and 3rd as well as next years 1st, and people tell me (or others with similar idea) that our Defense needs too much help. I'm not understanding this. This is the way I see it, try to explain which step I mess up on, or maybe you'll agree w/ me:

We still can get AD to help our pass rush, Hood to help at CB, and Hamlin/Grant to help at Safety. Even if we only got 2 of them, w/ our draft:

by having 6 more picks through round 4 (maybe 7 if we trade Smiley) we can add a starter in the second for sure, and depth or possibly a starter in rounds 3 and 4.

What we need on D are a:

NT(not available in rd 1 anyway)

Safety(can be signed as a FA, or could draft some1 in rd 2 or 3)
pass rush OLB(likely to get AD),

ILB (not going to get one in 1st rd anyway), and

DE (would be only case against trading our 1st, but there are good options later in draft, and we are still ok w/ what we got now)

That's 5 defensive needs. We'd get 2(maybe 3) of them in FA, and would have 6(maybe 7) picks through rd 4 to solve 3(maybe 2) needs and add depth on D. And to add to this, we'd likely spend at least a rd 4 pick on a WR anyway, why not get the best one?

If someone could explain what the big problem about trading for Calvin after reading the info above, that would be greatly appreciated, Thanks.

ummm i dont believe he is worth this year and next years first round pick

[Kobe8.24]

ummm i dont believe he is worth this year and next years first round pick

Not good enough to be a two first round pick, or just we have "more needs"? If you answered B, read my original post again.

[Optimus Prime]

I'm sorry, I don't get it. Does that mean that you think I'm in fantasyland, or do you see the light?

Sorry it meant I think it is a good question. He just said "hmm I'm not sure."

[Kobe8.24]

Sorry it meant I think it is a good question. He just said "hmm I'm not sure."

Just wondering,

Were you one that did or didn't want to trade up to get Calvin. I only ask to see if my thoughts were actually persuasive enough to work.

[Optimus Prime]

Just wondering,

Were you one that did or didn't want to trade up to get Calvin. I only ask to see if my thoughts were actually persuasive enough to work.

Well I like Calvin Johnson a lot and would love to get him but I'm just afraid we would have to give up too much to get him. Your post does make sense that we could still improve our defense through free agency and the rest of the draft while getting a potential superstar wide reciever for Alex Smith to have for the next dozen or so years(Alex Smith, Calvin Johnson, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore would be awsome). I'm not sure if it would be better or not for the team in the long run though. I'll just say if Nolan decides to do something in order to get him I won't be too disappointed.

[Nevyn]

Someone explain this to me. Getting Calvin does not mean we can't substantially upgrade our defense! I propose our 1st and 3rd as well as next years 1st, and people tell me (or others with similar idea) that our Defense needs too much help. I'm not understanding this. This is the way I see it, try to explain which step I mess up on, or maybe you'll agree w/ me:

We still can get AD to help our pass rush, Hood to help at CB, and Hamlin/Grant to help at Safety. Even if we only got 2 of them, w/ our draft:

by having 6 more picks through round 4 (maybe 7 if we trade Smiley) we can add a starter in the second for sure, and depth or possibly a starter in rounds 3 and 4.

What we need on D are a:

NT(not available in rd 1 anyway)

Safety(can be signed as a FA, or could draft some1 in rd 2 or 3)
pass rush OLB(likely to get AD),

ILB (not going to get one in 1st rd anyway), and

DE (would be only case against trading our 1st, but there are good options later in draft, and we are still ok w/ what we got now)

That's 5 defensive needs. We'd get 2(maybe 3) of them in FA, and would have 6(maybe 7) picks through rd 4 to solve 3(maybe 2) needs and add depth on D. And to add to this, we'd likely spend at least a rd 4 pick on a WR anyway, why not get the best one?

If someone could explain what the big problem about trading for Calvin after reading the info above, that would be greatly appreciated, Thanks.

First of all, this isn't a game of absolute "can"s or absolute "can't"s. It is about managing priorities.

But before we even get into the reasons that this is a poor idea, we have to address the plausibility of what you are suggesting. Now, Calvin is a very highly rated pick. Of all the other hyped players, none are considered as much of a no-doubter as Johnson. Peterson is close, but has injury questions. There are all sorts of questions about the QB's. Not everyone agrees that Joe Thomas is the best LT prospect.

Bottom line, he will go very high. Him getting to even the 6th overall pick is a pipe dream in my mind (unless he has a major arrest injury or other screwup before the draft).

Trading up that high especially for such a player isn't as easy as getting out your value chart. You need to find a team willing to move back, outbid
others who want to move up, and the more you want a guy, the higher a premium they will charge. Moving back 6-9 spaces at the top of the draft is also a problem for many teams, because not only do they lose out on CJ, but the top talent available at several other positions, too.

If we even found a team who would be willing to move back that far, we'd have problems because teams closer than us (Minnesota for one) to the selection up for grabs would be a much more appealing trade partner. The trading team would not only know what they'll get in extra picks, but have a much better idea who will be available to be selected.

Now, lets look at how you picked your trade offer. You wanted to keep a high selection this year so you kept our 2nd, so you gave up three high picks, one from next year. But that also means less immediate high pick help for the team we're trading with. So you need a GM secure enough in his job that he's willing to bank picks. Not likely at the top of the draft.

The bottom line is I think it would cost us more than that.

NOW we can talk about why it is a bad idea anyway.

1) It puts all your eggs in one basket. Yes, CJ is meant to be a sure thing. But there really are no sure things. Aside from the potential that he could end up with an attitude problem, (or cash his rookie bonus and not work hard, or any number of other elements), there is always a chance he gets hurt. Ki-Jana Carter was meant to be a no doubter running back.

Now that is always a risk, but risks like that are mitigating by having mutliple good selections. If we have 2 years worth of firsts and another day one pick invested in a guy and something happens, it would just BURY our team.

2) Defense this year is the plan: Nolan took over a team where the only young talent were on expiring contracts and practically impossible to keep. Which made this job the case study in how to build a franchise from the ground up. For 2 years, the draft AND free agency have been focused more on offense than defense. This isn't a surprise, our defense had more quality veterans when Nolan took over, and offense usually takes longer to build.

But the presumption of doing this is that at some point you will make defense the primary focus. You simply can't keep ignoring that side of the ball. Spending in free agency will help, but free agents are almost always a shorter term solution than draft picks, and this team needs a lot of help. This defense is almost as far away as the offense was when we started. That offense has added 3 free agents and 6 day one picks in 2 years and you still think it needs an upgrade.

My point being: fixing the defense will take more than one or two big free agents.

In the case of your suggested trade, not only do we not add that young star talent (unless we get lucky later) on D this year, but we can't do it next year either.

3) You aren't giving our offense enough credit: Yes, our passing numbers looked pretty medicre last year. And we could certainly use an upgrade of both talent and depth at wide receiver. But remember that we also had a QB in his second year in the league and who had just switched to a defensing system that was a great departure from anything he did since high school.

On top of that, we drafted a weapon to be a star last year, (and he was hurt for much of the year). People seem to be looking at this like we can only expect the same production from guys next year that we got last year.

But I think Davis stands to be MUCH improved, and a 6th overall pick pass catcher is drafted to be your #1 pass catcher. Saying we NEED another top 10 pick on a receiver is the equivalent of calling him a bust.

Our offense is incredibly young, particularly our passing offense. As they grow, they'll get much better on their own. That doesn't mean that we should not add talent, but it means that MAYBE you should evaluate how much help we need based on where we are going to be, not on where we are now.

There are no such excuses for the defense. Manny Lawson showed some talent, Brandon Moore was ok, and others had their moments, but this is a unit that you cannot reasonably expect to get better on their own. In fact, the case could be made that in the 2nd half of last year, they overachieved.

Veteran free agents on defense will help us immediately raise the level of play. It will keep us from relying strictly on the draft crapshoot to make the D better. But it is not enough by itself. Our defense has exactly THREE former first round draft picks left on it. One is Manny Lawson. The second is Bryant Young, who could retire any year. The third is Sammy Davis, a noted bust who we acquired by trading a bust.

All of the previous high pick defensive talent that we accumulated since drafting Young in '94 is gone. Our other solid players have been "diamond in the rough" free agent and later draft finds. Some of them are quite good, but as to be expected with that type of shopping list, none of them are real game changers at their position.

Our defense needs immediate help. But it also needs a new young core of talent to build and grow around. Nolan spent 2 years making a group like that for the O, and now it is time for the D to get some love.

[Optimus Prime]

Well said Nevyn. Rep.

[Nevyn]

Oh, and you did not get a complete list of our defensive needs.

At DE for the 3-4, right now we have Young who could retire any season, Douglas, coming into his contract year and just ok, and Fields, who we think can MAYBE play the position. So we probably don't need one DE, we need 2.

At ILB, not only have we had disappointing seasons from veterans but we have also had horrible injury luck in the last few seasons. The bottom line being we need depth there, too. Only one starter, I suppose.

At safety we definitely need an upgraded cover safety, but that is the minimum requirement. You don't just want a D that gets by, you want one that dictates, and neither guy back there right now is much of a pro bowl threat.

We need to get a Nose Tackle regardless of where we get him, and Isaac is coming into a contract year, so if he doesn't show he can cover the spot soon, we'll also need additional depth there, too. That is unless you want to keep switching to the 4-3 whenever one guy gets hurt.

You didn't even mention Cornerback. At CB we got decent play from our starters, but not only could it stand to improve, but if left as is it could get substantially worse. And even if Walt holds up, he is a temporary answer on a short term contract. At the very least, we need to be developping the next guy behind him.

That is handy, because Nickel back is arguably almost as important as safety these days, and right now our options there are pathetic.

[KevinM]

Not only would I not trade up for CJ, I don't think that I'd package what it would take to do so for any wide receiver already in the league. Lots of teams win super Bowls without premium wideouts; not very many without a good or great defense.

[49ersRus]

To answer that question, lets look at our recent draft history...

2005
Rnd1 Alex Smith QB
Rnd2 David Baas OG
Rnd3 Frank Gore RB
Rnd3 Adam Snyder OT

2006
Rnd1 Vernon Davis TE
Rnd1 Manny Lawson OLB
Rnd3 Brandon Williams WR
Rnd4 Michael Robinson RB

Thats 7 offense to 1 defensive player that can likely impact our team. Last year, we ranked last in scoring defense. Without Gore running the ball and keeping the other teams offense off the field, it would have been last. Our D has been neglected and is in need of a major overhaul in talent.

If we trade away our 1st and 2nd round, plus next years 1st we have available for D.

2007
1st Offense
2nd Offense
3rd Defense?
3rd Compensatory pick - Defense?

2008
1st Offense
2nd Defense
3rd Defense
4th Defense

Thats assuming we can make that trade. That will be essentially 4 years of drafting with anemic picks on the D.

Why can't we just pick up lots of people in FA? We used to do that all of the time until the Salary Cap was implemented. Now, we can only take so many people before we take significant cap hits, particularly if we want to keep the talent we draft. In reality, we should stay disciplined and only get one hight priced defensive talent in FA. The rest need to be affordable or we will have to pass on them. See Washting Redskins if you need an example of the price of overpaying in FA.

Our long term success at D will largely depend on how we do in the draft. This year in particular. A good draft will take us to the playoffs for years to come. A weak draft could hurt us for years to come. We need mostly D this year, and possibly next year as well if we want to build a balanced team necessary to win a Superbow.

[VDavis18]

As much as I think we all really like Calvin Johnson's potential, he isn't worth giving up what we would have to give up to get him. We definitely need to bulk up our deffense.

I think the guy for us is Amobi Okoye, the guy is young and has the body to put on the beef. he is at 305 right now...not quite NT status but would be a huge asset to us in the DE status for the 3-4 in my mind. He doesn't need all the glory and seems to be an unselfish guy which is perfect for that type of position.

As for the FA, I think it's a must that we get Adalius Thomas, it'd also be extremely nice to get Ken Hamlin because he is a pretty darned good cover saftey therefore bulking up our secondary, and as Adam Scheffter said on the NFL Network, we would be killing our divisional rivals!

Take Hamlin away from Seattle and we got a heck of an easier time passing the ball now. Plus in the NFC West, our opponents might just have the best tandem WR in the league. Think about it, Boldin and Fitz...Holt and Bruce...Jackson, Branch, and all the other guys Seattle has! I think Ken Hamlin would be a great addition to this team.

Also since we need some depth at CB, I really like Jason David (Colts CB) or Roderick Hood.

As for helping our depth at WR, let's face it, I dont think we are going to get a number one Wide Out this year in the FA or the Draft. That being said I think that a guy like Jason Hill would be a HUGE asset to our team. My dad is a WSU fan so i have kinda followed Hill's career and the guy is impressive.

Also i think something should be said about his work ethic. Everyone projected him to run about a 4.45 in the 40 yard dash at the combine but he comes out and runs a 4.32! I mean the guy just came off an injury his senior year and he gets out there and works his butt off to show those scouts that he can play some ball...I like this kid's attitude and his playing abilities, he is a big guy that adjusts very well to the ball and is pretty darned fast. Very reliable hands as well. He also came away with a great senior bowl

So why take CJ, give up picks that could potenitally help out our most pressing need (Deffense) and still come away with a pretty darned good receiver...doesnt make any sense to me.

Another guy I like in the draft at WR is Steve Smith, class act and a hard worker which I like and I think Nolan does too...

I know that this doesn't solve all of our prolmes but i didn't even touch on the rest of our draft picks, plus I think that by obtaining these players or at least some of them we would be heading in the right direction...

[Ace Matherton]

How many threads need to be posted to get the same answer?
http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showpost.php?p=563815&postcount=9

http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showpost.php?p=563815&postcount=9

http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showpost.php?p=564490&postcount=18

and if you think many on here dont know ish
http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showpost.php?p=564562&postcount=11

Look at how many teams in the past that have bet the farm for that "cant miss" player and have been burned.
Plain and simple teams who are in contention and have most if not all their holes filled can afford to do it, we are not that type of team, there are so many holes to fill on D and O that trading picks for an unproven player who is highly likely to produce average to below average numbers his first couple of years is a bad way to go.

We are not a team in contention, neither are the two teams speculated (3 and 4). You think they would give up such a valuable pick for a mid first and a third this year when both coaches are on the hot seat? A first next year makes NO sense given that those teams must win now to keep their coaches. Its a pipe dream and no different than all the posts last year saying we should trade up for Bush. Bush was twice the player in college that CJ was and had just as good of measurables, if we didnt do it then we wont now. There will be a point where a trade for CJ makes sense but htats not at at 3 or 4. 6 7 8 maybe depending on what the teams want but moving up that far for a WR especially in a draft class that is LOADED with WR talent is just throwing away value. Its a horrible move if your giving up more than 1 extra pick for an unproven workout warrior who may or may not be a solid WR.

Defense, dont kid yourself into thinking we are going to get 3 starter via FA it wont happen. So that leaves those holes to fill via the draft and ig your first pick on D is the second round your looking at a highly unlikely scenario that we can find a starter past round 2, leaving a crap D jsut like this year.