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View Full Version : How much would you be willing to pay to move up to picks 5-10?


49ersRus
03-11-2007, 10:54 AM
Details below. All trades includes our #11 pick in the first.

#5 Az. Need 450 pts. Would cost us either our 2nd rnd (#42) 480 pts, or 3rd (#76) 210 pts + 4th (#101) 96 pts + 4th (#122) 50 pts. Az might trade if they think Levi Brown would be available to them at #11 and they can't get Thomas. Problems are, they are in conference and would rake us over the coals if possible, or trade with someone else.

#6 Wash. Need 350 pts. Would cost us a 3rd (#76) 210 pts + 4th (#101) 96 pts + 4th (#12) 50 pts. Wash might trade in order to get more draft picks, and if they feel they can pickup a quality DL guy at #11. Have traded with us before. Might not drop if they really like who is available to them at #6 (Branch/Okoye/Adams/Anderson/Landry).

#7 Minn. Need 250 pts. Would cost us a 3rd (#76) 210 pts + 5th (#138) 37 pts. The Vikes might be willing to trade down to get a CB like Hall, or less likely but possible a WR like Ginn Jr.

#8 Houston. Need 150 pts. Would cost us a 4th (#107) 96 pts + 4th (#122) 50 pts. Houston might trade down because they need an OT and Brown would likely fall past Miama and Atlanta.

#9 Miami. Need 100 pts. Would cost us a 4th (#107) 96 pts. Might trade down for us if they want Ginn Jr. and an extra pick. Won't trade down if Quinn falls to them or they want Branch/Okoye/Willis. They are a 34 defense, so what is appealing to us is appealing to them on the D.

#10 Atlanta. Need 50 pts. Would cost us a 4th (#122) 50 pts. Might trade down if they have 2 people they are equaly interested in and want the extra 4th round pick. Unfortunately they would probably like two guys we are really interested, namely Landry/Okoye.

Please vote for how high you might be willing to go up, and for which talent (No CJ please).

Underrated49ers
03-11-2007, 10:59 AM
ill say it before and ill say it again

I wouldnt pay a dime to move up from the 11 spot. But i would trade up from the 2nd round to get another 1st. I would trade 2 or 3 of our 4th rounders and our 3 rounder (non compensatory) to get inbetween the 20-25 spot in the first round.

2 first round picks is much better then having 1 slightly higher first round pick.

we have multiple options of who we want at the first, someone will be available for us.

heckler
03-11-2007, 11:04 AM
ill say it before and ill say it again

I wouldnt pay a dime to move up from the 11 spot. But i would trade up from the 2nd round to get another 1st. I would trade 2 or 3 of our 4th rounders and our 3 rounder (non compensatory) to get inbetween the 20-25 spot in the first round.

2 first round picks is much better then having 1 slightly higher first round pick.

we have multiple options of who we want at the first, someone will be available for us.

I agree completely.

majesstik1
03-11-2007, 11:11 AM
I'd go up to number 2 to draft Calvin Johnson.

Calvin Johnson is going #1 overall. We won't trade up for him. Please, abandon hope now, and get with reality.

:francis: :francis: :francis: :francis:

majesstik1
03-11-2007, 11:12 AM
I think the trades ahead of us will cement that we'll stay put.

49ersRus
03-11-2007, 11:43 AM
I think there is a good chance that we trade up. Why wait and let others determine our fate? and then bemoan how we didn't get the guy we wanted? How Atlanta or Miami screwed us! Thats what losers do. Winners determine what they want, what its going to cost them, and then determine if its worth it.

Let me give you some scenarios.

1. Gaines Adams drops to the 8th pick. The niners think he would transition well to a 34 OLB (As do I). The cost is a couple of 4th round picks. Do we do this deal? I say yes!

2. Landry/Adams are gone at the 8th pick. Okoye is left and so is Quinn. Miami wants quinn, but we think Atlanta wants Okoye. Atlanta doesn't need a QB. So we do a deal with Miami. A 4th round pick for Okoye. Done deal IMO.

We won't do a deal that doesn't make sense, but there are a lot of possibilities out there in the 5-10 range.

Ace Matherton
03-11-2007, 12:21 PM
I think there is a good chance that we trade up. Why wait and let others determine our fate? and then bemoan how we didn't get the guy we wanted? How Atlanta or Miami screwed us! Thats what losers do. Winners determine what they want, what its going to cost them, and then determine if its worth it.

Let me give you some scenarios.

1. Gaines Adams drops to the 8th pick. The niners think he would transition well to a 34 OLB (As do I). The cost is a couple of 4th round picks. Do we do this deal? I say yes!

2. Landry/Adams are gone at the 8th pick. Okoye is left and so is Quinn. Miami wants quinn, but we think Atlanta wants Okoye. Atlanta doesn't need a QB. So we do a deal with Miami. A 4th round pick for Okoye. Done deal IMO.

We won't do a deal that doesn't make sense, but there are a lot of possibilities out there in the 5-10 range.
Your not being realistic about these trades. Dont use the stupid value chart, use logic. Why would any of the teams you've listed as partners want to trade back for fourths? Because the points add up? The value chart hass different values at each pick for every team in the nfl. Most draft day trades on the draft chart favor the team moving back and almost never come to fruition if the offer is just marginal. No team is moving back 2+ place in the first round for fourths, it wont happen.
You say we should not let other teams decide whom we pick so why would those teams allow us to do the same to them? Adams I doubt is terribly high on our list, and of the prospects who might actually be worthy of a trade up move only Landry would fit the bill. If given the chance I dont believe either MIA or ATL or Hou would do a trade with Landry or Okoye on the board.

Would I do the trades you listed absolutley, but it would never be that cheap to move up 2+ spots in the first from 11.

49ersRus
03-11-2007, 05:57 PM
Your not being realistic about these trades. Dont use the stupid value chart, use logic. Why would any of the teams you've listed as partners want to trade back for fourths? Because the points add up? The value chart hass different values at each pick for every team in the nfl. Most draft day trades on the draft chart favor the team moving back and almost never come to fruition if the offer is just marginal. No team is moving back 2+ place in the first round for fourths, it wont happen.
You say we should not let other teams decide whom we pick so why would those teams allow us to do the same to them? Adams I doubt is terribly high on our list, and of the prospects who might actually be worthy of a trade up move only Landry would fit the bill. If given the chance I dont believe either MIA or ATL or Hou would do a trade with Landry or Okoye on the board.

Would I do the trades you listed absolutley, but it would never be that cheap to move up 2+ spots in the first from 11.

This analysis is of course based on the value chart, which is only a first line approximation. Wether we would be willig to pay more or less, will depend on what we think we will get.

I have already stated why a team would trade down on my first post, but let me try and state it more clearly.

The basic value proposition for any team is to get your guy at the cheapest price possible. If I am Houston, and I want Levi Brown, I can do one of two things. Pick him at #8, or if I think he will be available at a lower pick, trade down. They would need to find a partner who would be willing to trade. We would make sense, because Miami and Atlanta have greater needs then OT. So trading down with us, in this scenario makes sense for them.

Lots of people on this mb talk about trading down to get Carriker. Every team is trying to get the most out of their draft situation.

Would we want to trade up? It depends. If we want Landry, and his is still available at #8, we will most likely have to trade up to get him. Landry won't make it past Atlanta IMO. So we have to decide if its worth it to us.

I would be willing to trade a couple of 4th round picks for a player I felt could be an impact player in this league. I am big on Adams/Landry/Okoye and if they fell to within our range, and we were not confident they would fall all the way down to us, I would try to make a deal.

Part of this post is about how high we might be willing to go up, but it also breaks down what it would take. Yes, by the value chart, but that is the only objective standard we have. Its only an approximation. We could do better or worse. Without the value chart we could not even have the basis for an intelligent discussion on this topic.

Ace Matherton
03-11-2007, 06:08 PM
I understand what your getting at, my point was the offers you put up are in no way realistic and thus there is no need for consideration. Just because they add up (and some dont) doesnt mean the trade is anymore likely. Would we trade up, sure if the value was right. I dont see any player the Niners would consider moving up to get past pick 7 as the value would eliminate most of what Nolan has done to get those picks. As for the last three options with the teams directly higher than us in the draft, they are likely targeting many of the same guys we would be and a trade down would be unlikely for them unless they were getting more than the going rate for the pick. Nolan has shown how much he values these picks and only in cases where we have excess would he deal them. That essentially leaves 1 third and 2 fourths as expendable picks which may be used to get back into the first round but I cant imagien a scenario where they would be used to move up so few spots.

Sage Niner
03-11-2007, 06:19 PM
Trying to trade up in this draft is risky, as this is shaping up one of the most unpredictable drats in recent memory. No team ahead of us has a clear cut target. There are 3-4 players that each team could realistically draft. Trading up for say Branch, could be a wasted pick as he could just as easily fall to us as he could be a top 5-6 pick. Not to mention theres always a few bone head moves in the Draft where a late 1st round talent goes in the top 10. There will still be plenty of premium talent left when we pick.

If anything I would rather us use your plethora of picks to trade up to get a second 1st round pick and grab two starters.

dhimiter
03-11-2007, 06:26 PM
Trade up only for Calvin Johnson

majesstik1
03-11-2007, 06:31 PM
Wow, apparently you didn't see the :gunshoot: afterwards. Pull your wedgy out and relax. I was joking.

:ok:

Doesn't look like you were able to decifer the humor in my post either. So, take your cute little wedgie joke, put it back in your pocket, and save it for next time. :secret:

49er_fan_22
03-11-2007, 09:05 PM
we probably wont trade up in the first round but will hav to trade somehow, we hav like 12 picks, that way too much, espicially to sign.

MungoD
03-12-2007, 05:28 PM
i can see us trading up here to get landry, if he is still kicking about at 9 i think we deal with Miami to get Landry to finish the secondary off,

BY97
03-12-2007, 05:42 PM
It depends on who is available that the Niners would want, and how badly they want him. That is the only reason to trade up - not because of pick value.