Think Jamarcus Russell is a shoo in as #1?

[sunsetguy]

I have a feeling he's not, could that shake things up enough to affect our #11 pick? He showed up at the combine overweight and doesn't seem to have the motivation to be the best the way a Brady Quinn does.

Here's what I'm thinking, Raiders go another direction, and Jamarcus still on the board when Tampa picks fourth. We all know Gruden's love of QBs, can he really resist? If he can't, then Calvin Johnson is there for us at perhaps a tradeable spot. Or if he's taken lower, another player we covet could drop.

Thoughts?

[majesstik1]

Calvin Johnson is going #1 overall. We won't trade up for him. Please, abandon hope now, and get with reality.

:francis: :francis: :francis: :francis:

[White2098]

Calvin Johnson will not fall past the top ten. If Russel doesn't go to Oakland than there is a chance that he'll go to Cleavland as they did pick up Lewis recently.

[49ersRus]

I have a feeling he's not, could that shake things up enough to affect our #11 pick? He showed up at the combine overweight and doesn't seem to have the motivation to be the best the way a Brady Quinn does.

Here's what I'm thinking, Raiders go another direction, and Jamarcus still on the board when Tampa picks fourth. We all know Gruden's love of QBs, can he really resist? If he can't, then Calvin Johnson is there for us at perhaps a tradeable spot. Or if he's taken lower, another player we covet could drop.

Thoughts?

If Raiders don't pick Russel, they will go CJ. He is the BPA, and despite all of the mocks out there with Russel on it, I don't see it happening.

[Ace Matherton]

Nope i've never thought a Qb was going first overall. Russell will drop, maybe as far as carolina or the jags.

[Viper]

Why would the Raiders want Russell when they have a chance to get Aaron Rodgers for Moss?:yahoo:

[sunsetguy]

Couple of interesting replies, but the point it how would that scenario potentially reverberate down through the draft and perhaps make someone we covet more attainable e.g. Gaines Adams, Laron Landry, Jamaal Anderson, Branch, Okoye...

Draft day could be even more interesting than we think. A lot more exciting than picking Carriker before any other team would.

[mydedgerbil]

Lets trade up for Jamarcus russel!!!!!!!

just kidding. but it would be refreshing for there to be some other trade up threads for someone besides CJ, even if its russel

in response to your post, it would have massive reverbrations through the draft. basically every team would reevaluate their position. detroit and all those teams trying to trade for that pik especially. as for us, it basically assures us that we get a great talent at #11 like branch, adams, landry, okoye, carriker, anderson.

[Pound th' Rock]

Raiders take Calvin Johnson at #1 and Drew Stanton at #33. Trade Randy Moss for a mid-late first rounder.

[Pound th' Rock]

any team that uses a 1st rounder on Moss must be sick in the head.

http://i72.photobucket.com/albums/i180/tonylives69/washington_redskins_logo1030104.gif

[Fez]

I have a feeling he's not, could that shake things up enough to affect our #11 pick? He showed up at the combine overweight and doesn't seem to have the motivation to be the best the way a Brady Quinn does.

Here's what I'm thinking, Raiders go another direction, and Jamarcus still on the board when Tampa picks fourth. We all know Gruden's love of QBs, can he really resist? If he can't, then Calvin Johnson is there for us at perhaps a tradeable spot. Or if he's taken lower, another player we covet could drop.

Thoughts?
If the Raiduhs go another direction than Russell, they'll take Calvin Johnson.

But hey, if you like him so much, maybe you can convince coach Nolan to call his name at #11, even though he'll be taken already. Who knows, maybe the Raiduhs will soften up and give us that guy for free.

:francis: :francis: :francis: :francis:

[9errealist]

Calvin Johnson is going #1 overall. We won't trade up for him. Please, abandon hope now, and get with reality.

:francis: :francis: :francis: :francis:

Calvin Jonhson will not be a 9er, but he won't be #1. He'll be holding a Buc's jersey at the end of their pick. But yes abandon all hope for landing him.

[Nevyn]

I have a feeling he's not, could that shake things up enough to affect our #11 pick? He showed up at the combine overweight and doesn't seem to have the motivation to be the best the way a Brady Quinn does.

Here's what I'm thinking, Raiders go another direction, and Jamarcus still on the board when Tampa picks fourth. We all know Gruden's love of QBs, can he really resist? If he can't, then Calvin Johnson is there for us at perhaps a tradeable spot. Or if he's taken lower, another player we covet could drop.

Thoughts?

Lots of mistakes here:

- You assume that Cleveland and Detroit would both pass on CJ and not listen to trade offers from the next few teams, and that Oakland going in "another direction" would not be drafting CJ.

- You say that Gruden 'loves QBs', when in fact what he loves are veteran QB's not draft prospects.'

- Even is Russell DID go later than expected, the only way it impacts us at 11 if he is STILL on the board at 11 (and thus an extra non-QB isn't).

[Bdogg]

Don't be surprised when the haiders draft CJ at #1 and then move back into the first round and get Russell.

[sunsetguy]

Lots of mistakes here:

- You assume that Cleveland and Detroit would both pass on CJ and not listen to trade offers from the next few teams, and that Oakland going in "another direction" would not be drafting CJ.

- You say that Gruden 'loves QBs', when in fact what he loves are veteran QB's not draft prospects.'

- Even is Russell DID go later than expected, the only way it impacts us at 11 if he is STILL on the board at 11 (and thus an extra non-QB isn't).

Hard to even know where to begin with how wrong you are actually. First, this is speculation; speculation comes with different assumptions, that's the point. Second, since virtually every mock draft has Cleveland and Detroit passing on CJ, why would that be an unreasonable assumption? Third, Gruden loves talented QBs period. He may have a preferance for veterans, but those of us with memories stretching back more than a year remember his rumored interest in A. Smith. Not to mention, Chris Simms is closer to a rookie than a seasoned veteran. Finally, you miss the point entirely. If CJ goes #1, the mix of the 10 guys taken ahead of the Niners can change. For example (this is one of many potential examples), let's say the Redskins grab Russell and 7-10 don't want Alan Branch. You have to keep in mind not every board rates the same top 11.

[Nevyn]

Hard to even know where to begin with how wrong you are actually. First, this is speculation; speculation comes with different assumptions, that's the point.

They don't have to be stupid ones.

Second, since virtually every mock draft has Cleveland and Detroit passing on CJ, why would that be an unreasonable assumption?

"would both pass on CJ and not listen to trade offers from the next few teams, and that Oakland going in "another direction" would not be drafting CJ.".

It isn't just passing on CJ. I can see Detroit fearing to take a wideout (but really, who thought they'd take Mike Williams) and Cleveland not wanting a third top 10 receiver, but the other part of this assumption is that these 2 teams don't let another one trade up for CJ. It also goes without saying that you are assuming that neither of them would draft a QB.


Third, Gruden loves talented QBs period. He may have a preferance for veterans, but those of us with memories stretching back more than a year remember his rumored interest in A. Smith.

Wow, are you off base here. First, you assume that I am basing my contention off of one offseason.

Veteran QB retreads that chucky has brought in to his teams (often teams WITH a starter):

Rich Gannon
Rob Johnson
Brian Griese
Tim Rattay
Jeff Garcia
Jake Plummer

and I'm sure I'm missing a few.

Number of first round QB's he has drafted?: ZERO

So don't come at me with "rumors" that he liked Alex Smith as your factual basis, especially since you are suggesting he'd draft him onto a team paying 5 mil each to Garcia and Simms and with Plummer a threat to unretire and Gradkowski kicking around.

Chucky's gift and curse is that he sees himself as a QB mentor and someone who can find diamonds in the rough. He doesn't look for the "all the tools" guys, he looks for the tainted guys he thinks he can get cheap, then get production out of. He also has a record of not caring about arm strength (Russell's biggest asset).

Not to mention, Chris Simms is closer to a rookie than a seasoned veteran.

What does that have to do with anything?

Finally, you miss the point entirely. If CJ goes #1, the mix of the 10 guys taken ahead of the Niners can change. For example (this is one of many potential examples), let's say the Redskins grab Russell and 7-10 don't want Alan Branch. You have to keep in mind not every board rates the same top 11.

I didn't miss the point at all. If the Redskins are going to take a QB, Russell doesn't HAVE to fall to shake up the top 10. Even if they don't Branch could fall a long way. Many people have him rated below both Carriker and Okoye anyway.

MY point is that you chose one scenario that is not only perfectly likely but once that is less likely to impact our selection than many other ones,. and then you compounded it by making your LONE example one in which both CJ and JaMarcus make it to the 4th pick, and justify it by the statement "Jon Gruden loves QBs". Well, Matt Millen loves top 10 WRs, so I guess Calvin aint getting past #2.

[sunsetguy]

Wow, some people are easily unhinged. OK, forget Gruden if you like since you are obsessed with this point, fact is there are different draft boards out there and not all top 11 picks are the same. Consequently, a change in the order of who is picked will likely cause someone to be available at 11 that might not otherwise have been. I could see where a Laron Landry or Jamal Anderson could fall enough for us to grab him.

If you don't think this is interesting or valid speculation, then politely move on. No reason to be a jerk about it, you are just as much a nobody here as everyone else.

[Nevyn]

Wow, some people are easily unhinged. OK, forget Gruden if you like since you are obsessed with this point, fact is there are different draft boards out there and not all top 11 picks are the same. Consequently, a change in the order of who is picked will likely cause someone to be available at 11 that might not otherwise have been. I could see where a Laron Landry or Jamal Anderson could fall enough for us to grab him.

If you don't think this is interesting or valid speculation, then politely move on. No reason to be a jerk about it, you are just as much a nobody here as everyone else.

1) You are the one taking this personally. I didnt obsess about Gruden. I pointed out that you were mistaken, you argued, I elaborated.

2) Yes, what happens in the first 10 picks will affect the decision at #11. Of course, even if this did happen, there really isn't any way to know which of the occurences in the top 10 provoked it.

What you are really presumably trying to figure out is who will be there when we pick, and that question is much more practical to come at from the other side. (eg "Could player X slide to #11? What would have to happen"?)

That seems a lot more productive than asking about a scenario which could have a big impact on us or none at all. Oakland could pass on Russell, and by the 4th pick the consensus top 4 still of the board and everything back to normal. ANY of the top ten teams could do something unexpected. ANY team after us could potentially trade up to take someone we want.

And before you get on a pedestal about politeness, reread your 2 responses to me.

[101South]

I would like to see Gruden take a QB in every round of this draft and have like 20 QBs (1 of which might be in the Peace Corps) at the start of training camp. A new NFL record.

Go Chucky go!!!

[sunsetguy]

1) You are the one taking this personally. I didnt obsess about Gruden. I pointed out that you were mistaken, you argued, I elaborated.

2) Yes, what happens in the first 10 picks will affect the decision at #11. Of course, even if this did happen, there really isn't any way to know which of the occurences in the top 10 provoked it.

What you are really presumably trying to figure out is who will be there when we pick, and that question is much more practical to come at from the other side. (eg "Could player X slide to #11? What would have to happen"?)

That seems a lot more productive than asking about a scenario which could have a big impact on us or none at all. Oakland could pass on Russell, and by the 4th pick the consensus top 4 still of the board and everything back to normal. ANY of the top ten teams could do something unexpected. ANY team after us could potentially trade up to take someone we want.

And before you get on a pedestal about politeness, reread your 2 responses to me.

If as you say it's the same thing, then the only reason to criticize the way I approached it is to be a smartass. A great reply would have been "whatever happens before we pick, I hope X is there for us." Instead you went through this elaborate effort to undermine a premise with which you agreed in the end. Hardly productive on your part.

So let's take this back to square one rather than engage in titt for tat. Do you have a thought as to whom you hope will drop to us?