Why 49ers Should Draft Calvin Johnson

[the scout]

As a devoted 49er fan and an NFL draft junkie, I've been following the events of the NFL free agent period and pre-draft workouts quite closely. Thus far I am very pleased with how 49ers have faired this offseason. In a free agent market that has seen record high salaries, the 49ers have signed four solid potential starters in Franklin, Lelie, Lewis, and Banta Cain for relatively meager salaries. They also, of course, made the big splash by handing out a huge contract to Nate Clements. This was a stroke of genius. It was too bad that they lost out on Thomas, but making sure to get Clements was the most important thing. This leads me into what I like to call an NFL version of Billy Beane's moneyball. Like how Beane stressed that stats like OPS can get overlooked, certain things should be given special consideration when building a NFL team.

Clements is a great shutdown corner, a rare and valuable comodity in the NFL. In a position as important as cornerback, Clement will likely be an invaluable part of the 49ers defense. Everyone knows this. But while everyone might consider his value on the field, I think what is overlooked is the draft picks that he will save the 49ers. Drafting cornerbacks is a nightmare. Looking back at the last few years, there have been countless cornerbacks taken in the first rounds of the draft. Almost all of these cornaerbacks have been busts or have not developed into shutdown corners. The 49ers know all about this--Mike Rumph, Ahmed Plummer, Jason Webster, Stantae Spencer (dare i say israel ifeanyi). Not to say that some of these players weren't productive to a certain extent, but that's 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks without much to show for it. Fixing the 49ers pass defense was likely going to cost another first round pick this season, and likely, if history is any indication, would have not led to a shutdown corner. This would leave the 49ers to continue to spend draft picks on their secondary in the years to come.

This brings me to Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is not only the best prospect in this years draft, but he is the best wide receiver prospect I ever seen. Before you dismiss me as over my head, I will back up my case. Since 1996 when I started following the NFL draf there has been no one with Calvin Johnson size that has run a 40 in the 4.3 range. Keyshawn Johnson who was picked first overall in 1996 has the size of Calvin Johnson, but ran the 40 in 4.56. Randy Moss ran in the 4.3 range, but weighed 25 pounds less. Calvin Johnson has no rival.

Beyond physical attributes, Calvin Johnson has displyed solid route running, amazing ball skills/ability to adjust to ball, an incredible verticle leap of 43-45 inches, and has a great work ethic and NO SIGNS OF AN EGO!

He also produced in college in a sub-par offense without a quality QB...

When Dennis Green drafted Randy Moss he was criticized because the Vikings already had two 1000 yard receivers. He responded by saying that he didn't care what his team needs were, that he was going to draft the best player available. These are words to live by in the NFL draft. Too often teams draft to cater to needs, even though every year positions that were solid at the beginning of the year are suddenly glaring needs the next year. In the 49ers case, wide receiver is a glaring need AND Calvin is the most dynamic player in the draft. They couldn't be luckier. The problem is that people think that trading this years pick along with next year's number one pick would be too much to switch picks with Tampa. This is where the 49ers should learn from trying to draft cornerbacks because it's same story with wide receivers. Other than 1996, drafting wide receivers in the first round has been a very risky proposition. If the 49ers don't draft Calvin Johnson they will either end up using their first round pick this year or using their second round pick this year and their first round pick the year after. Will those picks produce a number one receiever? Some think that Teddy Ginn is the answer. I might end up eating my words in the coming years but I see him as a high risk pick. Best case scenario he is Santana Moss, worst case he is Peter Warrick. The problem is that small Wide receivers in the NFL that have been successful such as Steve Smith and Santana Moss are great route runner. Ginn is not. He also has never shown the ability to go over the middle in college--in the pros, with his small frame, he is likely to never develop into a go-to guy, even if he pans out. History tells us no.

Having the opportunity to get a star wide receiver is something, like getting a shutdown corner, which is invaluable on the field, and to save draft picks in the future. This would not be same as trading up to draft any of the receivers taken in the top 10 in the past three years (Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Roy Williams (the only 1000 yard receiver), or Reggie Williams) because Calvin Johnson is a superior talent. Lesson: not all receivers drafted in the top 10 are created equal.

In conclusion: morgage the future to get Calvin Johnson, or morgage the future trying to make up for it

[Fez]

OH MY GOD!!!!

:francis: :francis:

[BEAT LA]

As a devoted 49er fan and an NFL draft junkie, I've been following the events of the NFL free agent period and pre-draft workouts quite closely. Thus far I am very pleased with how 49ers have faired this offseason. In a free agent market that has seen record high salaries, the 49ers have signed four solid potential starters in Franklin, Lelie, Lewis, and Banta Cain for relatively meager salaries. They also, of course, made the big splash by handing out a huge contract to Nate Clements. This was a stroke of genius. It was too bad that they lost out on Thomas, but making sure to get Clements was the most important thing. This leads me into what I like to call an NFL version of Billy Beane's moneyball. Like how Beane stressed that stats like OPS can get overlooked, certain things should be given special consideration when building a NFL team.

Clements is a great shutdown corner, a rare and valuable comodity in the NFL. In a position as important as cornerback, Clement will likely be an invaluable part of the 49ers defense. Everyone knows this. But while everyone might consider his value on the field, I think what is overlooked is the draft picks that he will save the 49ers. Drafting cornerbacks is a nightmare. Looking back at the last few years, there have been countless cornerbacks taken in the first rounds of the draft. Almost all of these cornaerbacks have been busts or have not developed into shutdown corners. The 49ers know all about this--Mike Rumph, Ahmed Plummer, Jason Webster, Stantae Spencer (dare i say israel ifeanyi). Not to say that some of these players weren't productive to a certain extent, but that's 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks without much to show for it. Fixing the 49ers pass defense was likely going to cost another first round pick this season, and likely, if history is any indication, would have not led to a shutdown corner. This would leave the 49ers to continue to spend draft picks on their secondary in the years to come.

This brings me to Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is not only the best prospect in this years draft, but he is the best wide receiver prospect I ever seen. Before you dismiss me as over my head, I will back up my case. Since 1996 when I started following the NFL draf there has been no one with Calvin Johnson size that has run a 40 in the 4.3 range. Keyshawn Johnson who was picked first overall in 1996 has the size of Calvin Johnson, but ran the 40 in 4.56. Randy Moss ran in the 4.3 range, but weighed 25 pounds less. Calvin Johnson has no rival.

Beyond physical attributes, Calvin Johnson has displyed solid route running, amazing ball skills/ability to adjust to ball, an incredible verticle leap of 43-45 inches, and has a great work ethic and NO SIGNS OF AN EGO!

He also produced in college in a sub-par offense without a quality QB...

When Dennis Green drafted Randy Moss he was criticized because the Vikings already had two 1000 yard receivers. He responded by saying that he didn't care what his team needs were, that he was going to draft the best player available. These are words to live by in the NFL draft. Too often teams draft to cater to needs, even though every year positions that were solid at the beginning of the year are suddenly glaring needs the next year. In the 49ers case, wide receiver is a glaring need AND Calvin is the most dynamic player in the draft. They couldn't be luckier. The problem is that people think that trading this years pick along with next year's number one pick would be too much to switch picks with Tampa. This is where the 49ers should learn from trying to draft cornerbacks because it's same story with wide receivers. Other than 1996, drafting wide receivers in the first round has been a very risky proposition. If the 49ers don't draft Calvin Johnson they will either end up using their first round pick this year or using their second round pick this year and their first round pick the year after. Will those picks produce a number one receiever? Some think that Teddy Ginn is the answer. I might end up eating my words in the coming years but I see him as a high risk pick. Best case scenario he is Santana Moss, worst case he is Peter Warrick. The problem is that small Wide receivers in the NFL that have been successful such as Steve Smith and Santana Moss are great route runner. Ginn is not. He also has never shown the ability to go over the middle in college--in the pros, with his small frame, he is likely to never develop into a go-to guy, even if he pans out. History tells us no.

Having the opportunity to get a star wide receiver is something, like getting a shutdown corner, which is invaluable on the field, and to save draft picks in the future. This would not be same as trading up to draft any of the receivers taken in the top 10 in the past three years (Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Roy Williams (the only 1000 yard receiver), or Reggie Williams) because Calvin Johnson is a superior talent. Lesson: not all receivers drafted in the top 10 are created equal.

In conclusion: morgage the future to get Calvin Johnson, or morgage the future trying to make up for it:ohmy: :ohmy:

:falldownlaugh: im not reading that shizznit
its too long

[Mini_Me]

You know, you just might have a point. And I'm sure that those 31 other organizations won't recognize who great Johnson is going to be... we'll probably have to trade next to nothing to get him.

[Nevyn]

If Calvin Johnson makes it to the 4th overall pick AND Tampa are willing to trade back to 11 for just our first rounder next year, I'll buy you a car.

[DFresh]

Yo! Preach!

If Nolan pulls this off :jay:

[KevinM]

When Dennis Green drafted Randy Moss he was criticized because the Vikings already had two 1000 yard receivers. He responded by saying that he didn't care what his team needs were, that he was going to draft the best player available. These are words to live by in the NFL draft.

True dat, Moss led Dennis Green to the Promised Land, where the Vikings are above .500 in he Super Bowl and Green is going to be joined by Moss in the Hall of Fame someday...

(you could maybe try using examples of teams that won Super Bowls when trying to convince us that we should do what they did...)

[KevinM]

Also, if you think Israel Ifaenyi was a flop at CB... :falldownlaugh:

[94949'er]

whoa whoa whoa......

who is this Calvin Johnson guy????

[the scout]

It would cost less than you think. Giving up next year's first rounder would be more than enough. According to the draft chart (link below) we should be able to trade with the Bucs for our second round pick and one of our fourth round picks. The Bucs would probably listen to us because they've been rumored to covet Amobi Okoye as a potential Warren Sapp-like player to fill a huge void in their cover 2 defense since he left town. They also could draft a wide receiver in the second round and use their other second pick to draft a tackle which might be their biggest need. Remember, they are a grind it out, defensive, run first team. Having a star receiver is not how Gruden won his super bowl.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

[ninerlicious]

who the funk is this calvin johnson y'all are talking about? :unsure:

[WehaveVD]

Comon' man, you need to think before you speak!!!!! Trading two 1st rounders is tantamount to trading Ngata (11 pick last year) and Will Smith(18th pick) for Randy Moss.......Is that really worth it????? That's one starter for the price of two:gunshoot:

[Ace Matherton]

Your going to get some flak for this because its a bit redundant.

Nice write up though, I dont disagree Johnsons a premier talent and of of the best WR's to come out in a long time. Its just that the cost of obtaining him is far too great. Best case scenario you have to trade up to the 3 pick, more likely though you'd have to trade up with the Raiders. Neither option is really plausible for an unknown talent. Especially at a position that rarely has players see success their first year. Your talking about 1/3 of a round jump in position. 4 or 5 first two round picks in consecutive years, no rookie is (or ever has been) worthy of that price imo. Draft picks are far too valuable to the team i think.

[DavisNiner]

It would cost less than you think. Giving up next year's first rounder would be more than enough. According to the draft chart (link below) we should be able to trade with the Bucs for our second round pick and one of our fourth round picks. The Bucs would probably listen to us because they've been rumored to covet Amobi Okoye as a potential Warren Sapp-like player to fill a huge void in their cover 2 defense since he left town. They also could draft a wide receiver in the second round and use their other second pick to draft a tackle which might be their biggest need. Remember, they are a grind it out, defensive, run first team. Having a star receiver is not how Gruden won his super bowl.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

The value chart is only a guideline. Trust me they would ask for a lot more. It is not worth it.

[majesstik1]

Another thing to consider with the value chart is future picks are worth 1 round less in trade value, since you have to wait to use them.

[rygeorge]

Required reading before a new Calvin Johnson thread:
Did you read a SINGLE word of what I said? I know I type a lot but really, did you simply glaze over that argument like a kid in a candy store? Because you completewly failed the after-experience pop quiz.

Let me nit-pick if I may.

"There will never be another Rice"

Current estimates say that if we want to leapfrog even 5 spots to get a shot at a falling "CJ" we will need to jettison our 2nd rounder, our 3rd rounder, and a little more in the form of most of our remaining tradable picks. History shows that athletes like "CJ" draw not only competition for the rights to get him but price him out of our market. The Saints traded about one and a half drafts to get a player who had documented problems with the limelight and whose personality profile is a reason the Colts passed on him. James was a huge success in IND, Williams found a cloud of Weed around his head, a trip to India, and a season in Canada but we all know those stories. If we're selling out our chances at seriously upgraded offensive and defensive depth for 1 single player...he'd BETTER be close to Rice. Even you are admitting his flaws.

"You might find a good WR late in the first round"

So we can find another player short of Rice who is good and still not trade our draft and our other 1st rounder? I'd really entertain notions of selling a 3rd and 4th with our 2nd to get a guy like Meacham or Bowe if they fell far enough. But you're saying there are other WRs who can play professionally at a good level who are available. So, why are we selling our draft stock for a non-Rice WR when multiple cheaper options are available?

"but CJ will be a immediate impact player"

The cruz of my entire argument. Thank you for stating it. If there are a half dozen other good WRs and CJ is a bonafide, proven and guaranteed impact player who will spike so many TD receptions that women will cry tears of joy....why are TEAMS TRADING HIM AWAY! Think about it. You are the the Redskins. Your scouting staff, front office, and owner see a perfect physical specimen available. Of course you are backing your vast expertise versus an entire room of football professionals. So you think they're all collectively stupid enough to pass on an IMMEDIATE, IMPACT WR who is so amazing only regular fans and the 49ers recognize it? Heck, even if that were true you're suggesting that we sell the farm for a couple of shiny jewels that will wow us one week but who cares if it turn out to be cubic zirconium! We got an "impact player" for a year. Heck, JJ Stokes was an impact player, how good of a trade up was that?

"has the best chance to be great out of all the WR's in the draft"

Again, a great example of what you want to believe. Think about it. How are you so certain that your opinion is more correct than about 60 football professionals? Because that's at least how many specialists in the top 6 teams has reviewed his files and admittedly know more than you do about him. So you're saying you're more certain than 60 other professionals. That's a pretty big stab. You're also saying they're too dumb to see a meal ticket that you envision and they will drop him on our laps.

Really, go back and review some history. Fans like you were drueling over players like Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, and Troy Williams in recent years and tell me how IMPACT are they now? To deny that "CJ" is not the same is a high level of "homerism" at its best.

[Nevyn]

It would cost less than you think. Giving up next year's first rounder would be more than enough. According to the draft chart (link below) we should be able to trade with the Bucs for our second round pick and one of our fourth round picks. The Bucs would probably listen to us because they've been rumored to covet Amobi Okoye as a potential Warren Sapp-like player to fill a huge void in their cover 2 defense since he left town. They also could draft a wide receiver in the second round and use their other second pick to draft a tackle which might be their biggest need. Remember, they are a grind it out, defensive, run first team. Having a star receiver is not how Gruden won his super bowl.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

"No deal"

"But according to the chart its fair"

"Oh, ok then"

:falldownlaugh:

[49ers]

TheWiz took the words right out of my mouth. GJ Wiz.

[the scout]

First of all I am not saying that trading up is always a good draft strategy. Clearly there many cases when trading up didn’t work out. Yes, every year there’s a new hot receiver that everyone hypes as the next big thing. However, Calvin Johnson is not just this year’s item of month.

You seemed to dismiss my argument for why Calvin Johnson is an especially exceptional prospect with an argument that goes as follows: he’s not that good if other teams are passing on him, what the ***** do you know, there’s a lot of NFL scouts that know more than you that don’t think he’s that great. First of all, you underestimate me. I don’t blame you for dismissing me as one of those fans that wants to trade up EVERY year to get the this year’s hot prospect, but that is not the case. Calvin Johnson is that good. Just as you questioned my credibility, I will question the credibility of all these so-called football experts whose opinion you revere.

Here is are WR drafted in the first round of the NFL draft since 1997:

1997
Ike Hilliard (#7) *
Yatil Green (# 15)
Reidel Anthony (#16)

1998
Kevin Dyson (#16) *
Randy Moss (#21) **
Marcus Nash (#30)

1999
Torry Holt (#6) **
David Boston (#8) **
Troy Edwards (#13)

2000
Peter Warrick (#4)
Plaxico Buress (#8) **
Travis Taylor (#10)
Sylvester Morris (#21)
R. Jay Soward (#29)

2001
David Terrell (#8)
Koren Robinson (#9) *
Rod Gardner (#15)
Santana Moss (#16) **
Freddie Mitchell (#25)
Reggie Wayne (#30) **

2002
Donte Stallworth (#13) *
Ashley Lelie (#19) *
Javon Walker (#20) **

2003
Charles Rodgers (#2)
Andre Johnson (#3) **

2004
Larry Fitzgerald (#3) **
Roy Williams (#7) **
Reggie Williams (#9)
Lee Evans (#13) **
Michael Clayton (#15) *
Michael Jenkins (#24)
Rashan Woods (#31) !!!

2005
Braylon Edwards (#2)*
Troy Williamson (#7)*
Mike Williams (#10)
Matt Jones (#21)*
Mark Clayton (#22)*

2006
Santonio Holmes (#25)*

**=#1 wide receiver
*=somewhat productive, or too early to tell

I know a little bit exhaustive, but I had to show this to prove my point. There’s 40 WR prospects drafted in the first round, and only 11 were ever legitimate #1 wide receivers. That’s 27.5% success rate. That’s pretty horrible. Now obviously it is very hard to project wide receiver prospects, but this shows that the chances that the so-called experts get it right is not very high. So yes, “you could find another good WR late in the 1st round”, but not likely.

So you may say that Calvin Johnson is just as hard to project as all the other high draft pick busts. True, prjecting WR is always tricky, but not one of the wide receivers for mentioned was as good as a prospect as Calvin Johnson. No one had his combination of size, speed, hands, playmaking ability, and character.

Why don’t other teams know he’s that good? They do. The first three teams drafting have other glaring needs that will likely prevent them from picking Calvin Johnson. Why would a team pass on a superior player to draft based on need. Simple, the NFL is a win now league. You draft players to fill holes in your team, to hopefully make your team a playoff contender. Teams have so much pressure on them to win, and not winning is going to result in coaches and GMs being fired.

The fact is that you have no idea what teams think about him. What we do know is he is the unanimous number one player on just about every single draft analyst’s board. No one has passed on him yet, and I’ll bet that many teams will be trying to trade up on draft day if they can. The problem is that many teams don't have the draft picks to trade up, or have too many needs.

According to draft charts the 49ers would have to give up their first 3 picks to trade up to get Johnson. If he is a number one receiver he is easily worth that (remember if you go by history it takes 4 1st round picks to land one #1 WR). Thanks to free agency the 49ers have depth a every position other than DE, LB, and maybe the offensive line (although wraggle, baas, and Snyder are all capable). If they trade their first 3 picks they still have 8 more picks left.


There’s always a bit of gamble to trade up, but if anyone was ever worth trading up for, it’s Calvin Johnson

[Ace Matherton]

Why don’t other teams know he’s that good? They do. The first three teams drafting have other glaring needs that will likely prevent them from picking Calvin Johnson. Why would a team pass on a superior player to draft based on need. Simple, the NFL is a win now league. You draft players to fill holes in your team, to hopefully make your team a playoff contender. Teams have so much pressure on them to win, and not winning is going to result in coaches and GMs being fired.

The fact is that you have no idea what teams think about him. What we do know is he is the unanimous number one player on just about every single draft analyst’s board. No one has passed on him yet, and I’ll bet that many teams will be trying to trade up on draft day if they can. The problem is that many teams don't have the draft picks to trade up, or have too many needs.

According to draft charts the 49ers would have to give up their first 3 picks to trade up to get Johnson. If he is a number one receiver he is easily worth that (remember if you go by history it takes 4 1st round picks to land one #1 WR). Thanks to free agency the 49ers have depth a every position other than DE, LB, and maybe the offensive line (although wraggle, baas, and Snyder are all capable). If they trade their first 3 picks they still have 8 more picks left.


There’s always a bit of gamble to trade up, but if anyone was ever worth trading up for, it’s Calvin Johnson

What your missing is that 27% hit ratio ALSO includes Johnson, dont get mezmerized by his athletic ability. Fact is the guy is NOT as good a prospect as Fitz was or Edwards, Holt Rogers and Andre Johnson imo. Your mistaken if you think any team in the top 5 would trade out of it for a 1st 2nd and 3rd. Case in point to move up 3 spots the giants had to give up 2 firsts 2 thirds and a 5th to move from 4 to 1.

Keep in mind no matter what you think about him and his abilities, he has just as much chance of busting as ANY other WR thats ever come out. You just dont give up that many picks on a big question mark. Basically is CJ better than the collective "ability" of all the picks you gave up for him? IMHO no way.

[Blong4Ever]

Here is are WR drafted in the first round of the NFL draft since 1997:

1997
Ike Hilliard (#7) *
Yatil Green (# 15)
Reidel Anthony (#16)

1998
Kevin Dyson (#16) *
Randy Moss (#21) **1
Marcus Nash (#30)

1999
Torry Holt (#6) **2
David Boston (#8) **he was a number 1 receiver but he's still a bust
Troy Edwards (#13)

2000
Peter Warrick (#4)
Plaxico Buress (#8) **3
Travis Taylor (#10)
Sylvester Morris (#21)
R. Jay Soward (#29)

2001
David Terrell (#8)
Koren Robinson (#9) *
Rod Gardner (#15)
Santana Moss (#16) **4
Freddie Mitchell (#25)
Reggie Wayne (#30) **5actually isn't #1 on his team but he would be

2002
Donte Stallworth (#13) *
Ashley Lelie (#19) *
Javon Walker (#20) **6

2003
Charles Rodgers (#2)
Andre Johnson (#3) **7

2004
Larry Fitzgerald (#3) **8
Roy Williams (#7) **9
Reggie Williams (#9)
Lee Evans (#13) **10
Michael Clayton (#15) *
Michael Jenkins (#24)
Rashan Woods (#31) !!!

2005
Braylon Edwards (#2)*
Troy Williamson (#7)*
Mike Williams (#10)
Matt Jones (#21)*
Mark Clayton (#22)*

2006
Santonio Holmes (#25)*

**=#1 wide receiver
*=somewhat productive, or too early to tell

I know a little bit exhaustive, but I had to show this to prove my point. There’s 40 WR prospects drafted in the first round, and only 11 were ever legitimate #1 wide receivers. That’s 27.5% success rate. That’s pretty horrible. Now obviously it is very hard to project wide receiver prospects, but this shows that the chances that the so-called experts get it right is not very high. So yes, “you could find another good WR late in the 1st round”, but not likely.

By my count it's 10-Boston I believe was cut by Miami. I like your post it's a bit lengthy and hard to read but let's look at it from a 1st receiver picked in the draft perspective. I count 2 superstars and 8 verdict still out, busts, or non-probowlers. 8 out of 10 did not/have not lived up to their expectations. Edwards and Holmes are very good young receivers which may be premiere so it's hard to say but even 60% not top tier receivers isn't favorable. I'm not saying anything about CJ but being the first receiver picked does not gaurantee success same as being the first qb. It is not in our best interest to waste the future on a gamble.

[dsr4900]

i hope that if the niners do pick a WR in the draft that they remember what happened to the great JJ STOKES and what a great career he had...

[Blong4Ever]

i hope that if the niners do pick a WR in the draft that they remember what happened to the great JJ STOKES and what a great career he had...

And Woods...

[Nevyn]

First of all .........etc .....etc ....


Wow, that was a bizaare post.

You argued that we should trade up for a receiver because receivers have a high bust rate ... okey dokey.

I don't have the energy for the whole pick chart argument again, so you'll just have to use common sense and the search feature to figure out why it will cost more than you are assuming to trade up for him. You might also want to google past top 10 deals and compare them to the chart.

[Jachel]

In regards to all of this, I understand what "The Scout" is trying to say, and I understand what just about everyone else is saying. But I more than understand that Nolan is absolutely brilliant at what he does. If CJ is worth most our draft (which I personally think he could turn out to be), Nolan will find a way to get CJ for a bargain, just not a bargain on paper. Kinda like Barlow to the jets. If I remeber correctly, some experts felt Barlow was/is a good young RB, so "what a bad trade for the 9ers", but in reality, it was a brilliant move. Same applies here. If Nolan decides to trade up to get CJ, it will seem like a lot, but when we look back on it, it will be very little.

[roleplay3r1]

Yeah I wholeheartedly agree. Calvin Johnson is the best player in the history of the NFL and to not trade up for him would be downright stupid.

I can't believe this kids' name isn't being thrown around more. It's almost like nobody knows about him.

:thud:

[Nevyn]

In regards to all of this, I understand what "The Scout" is trying to say, and I understand what just about everyone else is saying. But I more than understand that Nolan is absolutely brilliant at what he does. If CJ is worth most our draft (which I personally think he could turn out to be), Nolan will find a way to get CJ for a bargain, just not a bargain on paper. Kinda like Barlow to the jets. If I remeber correctly, some experts felt Barlow was/is a good young RB, so "what a bad trade for the 9ers", but in reality, it was a brilliant move. Same applies here. If Nolan decides to trade up to get CJ, it will seem like a lot, but when we look back on it, it will be very little.

No one thought that was a bargain with the possible exception of the Jets and Barlow. When we got an actual worthwhile pick for Barlow, I nearly threw a parade.

[the scout]

Wow, that was a bizaare post.

You argued that we should trade up for a receiver because receivers have a high bust rate ... okey dokey.

I don't have the energy for the whole pick chart argument again, so you'll just have to use common sense and the search feature to figure out why it will cost more than you are assuming to trade up for him. You might also want to google past top 10 deals and compare them to the chart.




I understand how my argument was confusing, but I think you are missing the most important point. I am proposing that it is the ways that Calvin Johnson sets himself apart from all the listed drafts picks which makes trading up and drafting him worth it. Without trying to sound like a broken record, he is a better prospect than any of the other prospects. A lot of people don't seem to grasp this. This is not my opinion, this is based on facts.

His combination of size, speed, and athletic ability is UNRIVALED by any of wide receiver drafted in the last...I don't know if there has been anyone-- someone please tell me if they think otherwise--but predraft, don't try to tell that Jerry Rice was a better prospect just because he's Jerry Rice, and no (to that one person who wrote a reply to message earlier) Braylon Edwards was/is slower and smaller, not even close.

Not to mention he has better ball skills than any other prospect in the draft and has a reputation as a hard worker without an ego.

He drew national attention as a junior without being at school with much national attention. He put amazing numbers despite being a part of an offense that had subpar talent all around him.

At this point people give one of three responses: trust Nolan he will make the right decision (I don't know about everyone else, but I'm pretty sure Nolan is not the one in charge of the personal decisions, so I'm not sure how that's relevant), giving up the picks is not worth it, or we would have to give more than you think.

For the record what I am purposing is that the 49ers trade their first three picks for the Bucs pick at number 4. People have critisized this saying two contradictatory statements: that's not enough to trade up seven spots or that's too high of a price--if the price was that high, the Bucs would make the trade. As it stands, the assumption that the 49ers top three picks will be enough is subject to rules of any supply and demand market. Sometimes trading up costs more than other times, depending on what the demand is to trade up. In this case, the demand for Calvin Johnson may be too high, but given the chance to get him for their first three picks, I think they should make the trade.

[MisfitZ]

you said youve never seen anyone of his size run a 4.3 in the forty but someone on the niners have ran that before his names VD you may have heard of him

O yeah nolans plan is to build through the draft because thats how you do it the right way well its tough to build through the draft if you give up all your draft picks for one guy

[MisfitZ]

I understand how my argument was confusing, but I think you are missing the most important point. I am proposing that it is the ways that Calvin Johnson sets himself apart from all the listed drafts picks which makes trading up and drafting him worth it. Without trying to sound like a broken record, he is a better prospect than any of the other prospects. A lot of people don't seem to grasp this. This is not my opinion, this is based on facts.

His combination of size, speed, and athletic ability is UNRIVALED by any of wide receiver drafted in the last...I don't know if there has been anyone-- someone please tell me if they think otherwise--but predraft, don't try to tell that Jerry Rice was a better prospect just because he's Jerry Rice, and no (to that one person who wrote a reply to message earlier) Braylon Edwards was/is slower and smaller, not even close.

Not to mention he has better ball skills than any other prospect in the draft and has a reputation as a hard worker without an ego.

He drew national attention as a junior without being at school with much national attention. He put amazing numbers despite being a part of an offense that had subpar talent all around him.

At this point people give one of three responses: trust Nolan he will make the right decision (I don't know about everyone else, but I'm pretty sure Nolan is not the one in charge of the personal decisions, so I'm not sure how that's relevant), giving up the picks is not worth it, or we would have to give more than you think.

For the record what I am purposing is that the 49ers trade their first three picks for the Bucs pick at number 4. People have critisized this saying two contradictatory statements: that's not enough to trade up seven spots or that's too high of a price--if the price was that high, the Bucs would make the trade. As it stands, the assumption that the 49ers top three picks will be enough is subject to rules of any supply and demand market. Sometimes trading up costs more than other times, depending on what the demand is to trade up. In this case, the demand for Calvin Johnson may be too high, but given the chance to get him for their first three picks, I think they should make the trade.

ummmm if CJ is the prospect you claim him to be why would he still be there at 4 shouldnt he be a top 2 pick if hes the next best wr thats going to cure cancer and be rookie of the year while feeding starving kids in africa and winning the nobel peace prize

[Nevyn]

I understand how my argument was confusing, but I think you are missing the most important point. I am proposing that it is the ways that Calvin Johnson sets himself apart from all the listed drafts picks which makes trading up and drafting him worth it. Without trying to sound like a broken record, he is a better prospect than any of the other prospects. A lot of people don't seem to grasp this. This is not my opinion, this is based on facts.

Yeah, we get it.

But do you really think all of those WRs busted because they werent big enough, or werent fast enough. Some people can get injured. Some people get their top 10 bonus money and then cease to work hard. Some big WR's become obsessed with working out to the point that they are carrying too much weight and it leads to a string of injuries which kill their promising career. That's why no one is a sure thing and no player is worth giving up your whole draft for.

And what you still haven't addressed is that if he is THAT sure a prospect, he just won't be available.

For the record what I am purposing is that the 49ers trade their first three picks for the Bucs pick at number 4. People have critisized this saying two contradictatory statements: that's not enough to trade up seven spots or that's too high of a price--if the price was that high, the Bucs would make the trade.

Those statements aren't contradictory at all. I don't think giving up our top 3 selections is worth it for us. We need too much help at too many spots, and limiting yourself to one bullet in the draft is stupid. That doesnt mean it is enough compensation for the Bucs to move back that far, nor that they would benefit as much from the extra picks as we would suffer for the lack of them.

Put another way, at the local Cineplex, 7 dollars is NOT ENOUGH to buy medium popcorn and a pop. It costs more. But even if they only charged 7, I wouldnt want to pay it. Even if it was historic "once it a lifetime" popcorn.

[dynasty49]

Trading for Calvin Johnson will sell more tickets and jerseys, therefore the fans and the team can get a new stadium.

Imagine Johnson and Davis on the field together with the running game we possess.....The defense won't have to be on the field so much because thats a lot of first downs.

[xraided25]

:boxing:

[49ERSFAN$LIFE]

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/7139/funnysign04vg1.jpg

[49ERSFAN$LIFE]

hahaha now i know why you use that image a lot :laugh:

:laugh: yep

[dynasty49]

I'm sure NFL scouts would love to comment. Especially, the teams who are looking to trade up for him.

[49ERSFAN$LIFE]

I'm sure NFL scouts would love to comment. Especially, the teams who are looking to trade up for him.

Really? Are you serious?? :hyper:


:laugh:

[dynasty49]

Are you??

[TheWiz]

Trading for Calvin Johnson will sell more tickets and jerseys, therefore the fans and the team can get a new stadium.

Imagine Johnson and Davis on the field together with the running game we possess.....The defense won't have to be on the field so much because thats a lot of first downs.

I'm sure this is a fishing expedition but I can't help myself.

First of all, the team doesn't make money from selling jerseys, the NFL does. The NFL owns the rights to the images, names, and likenesses of all active players. Whenever a jersey, poster, t-shirt, or mug is sold featuring a player that is NFL merchandise it goes to the league, not the team. Even 'TO' and his store has to use a logo or non-NFL merchandise. His Jerseys he sells don't even have Cowboys logos on them they are generic blue or white jerseys. Players are not even allowed to sign contradicting sponsorship deals on items. The resul are extensive.

The logic of NOT wanting the defense on the field? We signed Clements to a big contract, as well as players like Banta-Cain, Franklin, and Lewis. Fans want to see them play too!

A player doesn't sell tickets, winning does. The fact we're up and coming and ready to join the playoff field of top 12 teams means more tickets sold. If you pay the costs of NFL tickets to see a rookie WR, I'd laugh at you. You go to see a winning, competing club. Not a player. It's not like baseball where I'd buy a $30 grandstand ticket to see Clemens pitch in his final season.

[dynasty49]

Please be so kind as to respond with posts that will have reason and a detailed explanation to support your agreement or disagreement...and pleasee refrain from using phrases that could be found insulting....

Thank you for your cooperation in this matter....

[dynasty49]

I'm sure this is a fishing expedition but I can't help myself.

First of all, the team doesn't make money from selling jerseys, the NFL does. The NFL owns the rights to the images, names, and likenesses of all active players. Whenever a jersey, poster, t-shirt, or mug is sold featuring a player that is NFL merchandise it goes to the league, not the team. Even 'TO' and his store has to use a logo or non-NFL merchandise. His Jerseys he sells don't even have Cowboys logos on them they are generic blue or white jerseys. Players are not even allowed to sign contradicting sponsorship deals on items. The resul are extensive.

The logic of NOT wanting the defense on the field? We signed Clements to a big contract, as well as players like Banta-Cain, Franklin, and Lewis. Fans want to see them play too!

A player doesn't sell tickets, winning does. The fact we're up and coming and ready to join the playoff field of top 12 teams means more tickets sold. If you pay the costs of NFL tickets to see a rookie WR, I'd laugh at you. You go to see a winning, competing club. Not a player. It's not like baseball where I'd buy a $30 grandstand ticket to see Clemens pitch in his final season.


Thank you for providing detail.....Maybe I should elaborate more, but I choose not to get into it about this topic. But, I agree with some parts of what you explained. Are you saying fans dont come to see exciting players? Certainly, Johnson alone will not take us to the playoffs by himself, but it would be someone along with Smith, Gore, Davis, and Lawson that can add more attraction to the team. Johnson would be a capstone.

Did the 49ers not get on the map because of great players like Montana, Lott, Craig, Taylor, and RICE who was the capstone???? Great players stimulate many things in oragnizations like competitiveness, leadership, and yes financial benefits.....

[dynasty49]

oh, this thread is serious?

Serious is not an issue. Responses can be.

[FLNiner]

Serious is not an issue. Responses can be.

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6199/wtfdidhesayhz3.jpg

[Stumpy]

Thank you for providing detail.....Maybe I should elaborate more, but I choose not to get into it about this topic. But, I agree with some parts of what you explained. Are you saying fans dont come to see exciting players? Certainly, Johnson alone will not take us to the playoffs by himself, but it would be someone along with Smith, Gore, Davis, and Lawson that can add more attraction to the team. Johnson would be a capstone.

Did the 49ers not get on the map because of great players like Montana, Lott, Craig, Taylor, and RICE who was the capstone???? Great players stimulate many things in oragnizations like competitiveness, leadership, and yes financial benefits.....

The 49ers got on the map because they WON BIG GAMES. Montan, Rice, Lott, Taylor, these players became BIG NAMES because they played so well once they got INTO THE NFL, not because they put up BIG NUMBERS at the SCOUTING COMBINE.

[Peter Proud]

Plain and simple: People will pay for winners......not losers. There's no other way to say it.

[707Nin3rsFan]

i would go see the niners regardless if they win or lose, but more people would buy tickets to see a winning team and not just a single player :wild:

[KevinM]

The Raiders didn't sell out a single game last year... the NFL was clearly buying out unused tickets or other such shenanigans.

[dynasty49]

As a devoted 49er fan and an NFL draft junkie, I've been following the events of the NFL free agent period and pre-draft workouts quite closely. Thus far I am very pleased with how 49ers have faired this offseason. In a free agent market that has seen record high salaries, the 49ers have signed four solid potential starters in Franklin, Lelie, Lewis, and Banta Cain for relatively meager salaries. They also, of course, made the big splash by handing out a huge contract to Nate Clements. This was a stroke of genius. It was too bad that they lost out on Thomas, but making sure to get Clements was the most important thing. This leads me into what I like to call an NFL version of Billy Beane's moneyball. Like how Beane stressed that stats like OPS can get overlooked, certain things should be given special consideration when building a NFL team.

Clements is a great shutdown corner, a rare and valuable comodity in the NFL. In a position as important as cornerback, Clement will likely be an invaluable part of the 49ers defense. Everyone knows this. But while everyone might consider his value on the field, I think what is overlooked is the draft picks that he will save the 49ers. Drafting cornerbacks is a nightmare. Looking back at the last few years, there have been countless cornerbacks taken in the first rounds of the draft. Almost all of these cornaerbacks have been busts or have not developed into shutdown corners. The 49ers know all about this--Mike Rumph, Ahmed Plummer, Jason Webster, Stantae Spencer (dare i say israel ifeanyi). Not to say that some of these players weren't productive to a certain extent, but that's 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks without much to show for it. Fixing the 49ers pass defense was likely going to cost another first round pick this season, and likely, if history is any indication, would have not led to a shutdown corner. This would leave the 49ers to continue to spend draft picks on their secondary in the years to come.

This brings me to Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is not only the best prospect in this years draft, but he is the best wide receiver prospect I ever seen. Before you dismiss me as over my head, I will back up my case. Since 1996 when I started following the NFL draf there has been no one with Calvin Johnson size that has run a 40 in the 4.3 range. Keyshawn Johnson who was picked first overall in 1996 has the size of Calvin Johnson, but ran the 40 in 4.56. Randy Moss ran in the 4.3 range, but weighed 25 pounds less. Calvin Johnson has no rival.

Beyond physical attributes, Calvin Johnson has displyed solid route running, amazing ball skills/ability to adjust to ball, an incredible verticle leap of 43-45 inches, and has a great work ethic and NO SIGNS OF AN EGO!

He also produced in college in a sub-par offense without a quality QB...

When Dennis Green drafted Randy Moss he was criticized because the Vikings already had two 1000 yard receivers. He responded by saying that he didn't care what his team needs were, that he was going to draft the best player available. These are words to live by in the NFL draft. Too often teams draft to cater to needs, even though every year positions that were solid at the beginning of the year are suddenly glaring needs the next year. In the 49ers case, wide receiver is a glaring need AND Calvin is the most dynamic player in the draft. They couldn't be luckier. The problem is that people think that trading this years pick along with next year's number one pick would be too much to switch picks with Tampa. This is where the 49ers should learn from trying to draft cornerbacks because it's same story with wide receivers. Other than 1996, drafting wide receivers in the first round has been a very risky proposition. If the 49ers don't draft Calvin Johnson they will either end up using their first round pick this year or using their second round pick this year and their first round pick the year after. Will those picks produce a number one receiever? Some think that Teddy Ginn is the answer. I might end up eating my words in the coming years but I see him as a high risk pick. Best case scenario he is Santana Moss, worst case he is Peter Warrick. The problem is that small Wide receivers in the NFL that have been successful such as Steve Smith and Santana Moss are great route runner. Ginn is not. He also has never shown the ability to go over the middle in college--in the pros, with his small frame, he is likely to never develop into a go-to guy, even if he pans out. History tells us no.

Having the opportunity to get a star wide receiver is something, like getting a shutdown corner, which is invaluable on the field, and to save draft picks in the future. This would not be same as trading up to draft any of the receivers taken in the top 10 in the past three years (Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Roy Williams (the only 1000 yard receiver), or Reggie Williams) because Calvin Johnson is a superior talent. Lesson: not all receivers drafted in the top 10 are created equal.

In conclusion: morgage the future to get Calvin Johnson, or morgage the future trying to make up for it

I totally Agree with you my friend.

[101South]

Scout,

If this is a fishing expedition you at least put alot of effort into it. I also love CJ since seeing him in early 2005. I also would concede to one point - if we could trade our first 3 pick and get him, we should just do it.

But that wont get it done. I dont think he gets past #2, and moving up to there would take a Ricky Williams/Ditka sort of scenario, which led to Ditka's getting his sss canned. Or the Minnesotta GM who traded 5 draft picks for a proven commodity Herschell Walker, and set up the Cowboys dynasty of the 90's.

You point out that 27+% of the first round WR's have been very good. But show me the % of multiple draft picks for 1 player trades that have been successful for the team giving up the multiples. ???

I'll help you a little with the Ifeanyi deal too. As KevinM was probably beginning to point out but thought, why bother?, the reason Ifeanyi was a bust as a cb was the fact that.....he was a freakin DE!!! Even Charles Haley would have sucked playing cb.

Now if you could figure out a way to ship bottled water preblended with the Date Rape Drug to every other teams' war rooms, maybe just maybe we could trade Willie Middlebrooks and our 6th rounder for CJ. :go9ers:

[KevinM]

yeah they did.. and No the NFL doesnt buy tickets

O RLY? So the Christmas Eve game against Arizona that I went to, that was on local TV and announced as a sellout... while the stadium was never more than 2/3 full was not shenanigans? I say again... the Raiders did not sell out every game last year. I doubt they sold out ANY just like they didn't for the past several years. You don't honestly believe that every team in the league sold out every game last year do you? Because they all got on local TV and the NFL announced that they all did...

[dynasty49]

First of all I am not saying that trading up is always a good draft strategy. Clearly there many cases when trading up didn’t work out. Yes, every year there’s a new hot receiver that everyone hypes as the next big thing. However, Calvin Johnson is not just this year’s item of month.

You seemed to dismiss my argument for why Calvin Johnson is an especially exceptional prospect with an argument that goes as follows: he’s not that good if other teams are passing on him, what the ***** do you know, there’s a lot of NFL scouts that know more than you that don’t think he’s that great. First of all, you underestimate me. I don’t blame you for dismissing me as one of those fans that wants to trade up EVERY year to get the this year’s hot prospect, but that is not the case. Calvin Johnson is that good. Just as you questioned my credibility, I will question the credibility of all these so-called football experts whose opinion you revere.

Here is are WR drafted in the first round of the NFL draft since 1997:

1997
Ike Hilliard (#7) *
Yatil Green (# 15)
Reidel Anthony (#16)

1998
Kevin Dyson (#16) *
Randy Moss (#21) **
Marcus Nash (#30)

1999
Torry Holt (#6) **
David Boston (#8) **
Troy Edwards (#13)

2000
Peter Warrick (#4)
Plaxico Buress (#8) **
Travis Taylor (#10)
Sylvester Morris (#21)
R. Jay Soward (#29)

2001
David Terrell (#8)
Koren Robinson (#9) *
Rod Gardner (#15)
Santana Moss (#16) **
Freddie Mitchell (#25)
Reggie Wayne (#30) **

2002
Donte Stallworth (#13) *
Ashley Lelie (#19) *
Javon Walker (#20) **

2003
Charles Rodgers (#2)
Andre Johnson (#3) **

2004
Larry Fitzgerald (#3) **
Roy Williams (#7) **
Reggie Williams (#9)
Lee Evans (#13) **
Michael Clayton (#15) *
Michael Jenkins (#24)
Rashan Woods (#31) !!!

2005
Braylon Edwards (#2)*
Troy Williamson (#7)*
Mike Williams (#10)
Matt Jones (#21)*
Mark Clayton (#22)*

2006
Santonio Holmes (#25)*

**=#1 wide receiver
*=somewhat productive, or too early to tell

I know a little bit exhaustive, but I had to show this to prove my point. There’s 40 WR prospects drafted in the first round, and only 11 were ever legitimate #1 wide receivers. That’s 27.5% success rate. That’s pretty horrible. Now obviously it is very hard to project wide receiver prospects, but this shows that the chances that the so-called experts get it right is not very high. So yes, “you could find another good WR late in the 1st round”, but not likely.

So you may say that Calvin Johnson is just as hard to project as all the other high draft pick busts. True, prjecting WR is always tricky, but not one of the wide receivers for mentioned was as good as a prospect as Calvin Johnson. No one had his combination of size, speed, hands, playmaking ability, and character.

Why don’t other teams know he’s that good? They do. The first three teams drafting have other glaring needs that will likely prevent them from picking Calvin Johnson. Why would a team pass on a superior player to draft based on need. Simple, the NFL is a win now league. You draft players to fill holes in your team, to hopefully make your team a playoff contender. Teams have so much pressure on them to win, and not winning is going to result in coaches and GMs being fired.

The fact is that you have no idea what teams think about him. What we do know is he is the unanimous number one player on just about every single draft analyst’s board. No one has passed on him yet, and I’ll bet that many teams will be trying to trade up on draft day if they can. The problem is that many teams don't have the draft picks to trade up, or have too many needs.

According to draft charts the 49ers would have to give up their first 3 picks to trade up to get Johnson. If he is a number one receiver he is easily worth that (remember if you go by history it takes 4 1st round picks to land one #1 WR). Thanks to free agency the 49ers have depth a every position other than DE, LB, and maybe the offensive line (although wraggle, baas, and Snyder are all capable). If they trade their first 3 picks they still have 8 more picks left.


There’s always a bit of gamble to trade up, but if anyone was ever worth trading up for, it’s Calvin Johnson

I agree totally.

[KevinM]

No way. Our draft picks should be used smartly. We should draft Patrick Willis in the first and then draft Anthony Gonzalez in the second. He is a very hard worker and is from Thee Ohio State.

The ILBs in rounds 2-4 are too good to use #11 on one when there is a bigger dropoff in the 3-4 defensive lineman.

[KevinM]

He doesn't play that fast, and all ILBs are "tackling machines."

[49er_fan_22]

The only way I could see us gettin Calvin Johnson is if we traded our 1st, 3rd, and 2 of our 4ths to Washington for their 6th overall. And then traded the 6th overall pick (from Was) and a 2008 2nd round, along with another 4th to Tampa Bay for the 4th overall pick.

3 unlikely things would have to happen:
1. Washington would have to be willing to trade with us
2. Tampa Bay would have to be willing to trade with us
3. Calvin Johnson would have to fall to the 4th spot

each is unlikely by itself, but for all 3 things to happen it would be extremely unlikely.

that is way too much to sacrifice for one guy, even tho id love to get cj, im not to sure we can afford it with our picks, or our cap room. i realll doubt that he will be a bust like some say he will be, but i dont see the niners trading up for him unless nolan can get a really good deal. with that said, there r still a lot of great picks our there for us at # 11 like landry, carriker, branch, and okoye, ( we really shudnt draft a WR in the first round even if we dont get johnson, they are all too risky. ) so we really dont hav to get johnson to get a player that can hav an immediate impact on the team.

[KevinM]

yeah. and i find it funny when people use little queer smiley faces to express emotion.

http://kevinjmcdaniel.googlepages.com/ohnoes.gif

[KevinM]

I didnt say all, READ MY POSTs before opening your mouth...I said some..not all and that wasnt my point to begin with, its that players sell tickets! Not just winning... some teams lose all the time but still sell out.

I wasn't responding to all your posts, just the one about the Raiders selling out games. They didn't; I don't know if you noticed, but EVERY SINGLE GAME in the entire league last year was on local TV. First time in like 18 years or whatever the Raiders pulled that off, and they haven't sold out more than a couple of games in years. Trust me, there were some shenanigans going on so that the NFL could claim that all its games were sellouts to get them on TV. I don't care about any of the rest of your posts because I was only responding to one part of one post.