5th pick of the draft?

[jerry rice]

I just found out that I have the 5th pick of my main money league. I know it's early, but with what you know now who would you go with?

Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis? (Or someone else?)

10 yards a point. 6 points a TD. 0.25 points per reception.

I like Tiki, he's was dope last year, lots of yardage! But he's getting older and may lose some goalline carries to Big Brandon Jacobs this year.

With the improved receiving corps in Washington, I expect Portis to be solid all year.

Who would you pick????

[markiemarko]

Who would you pick????

tiki

[Nikko]

Between those two, Tiki.

[49ers1]

LT and Shaun are top 3 picks, no way they're there at 5.

I'de take Clinton Portis over Tiki.

[Pound th' Rock]

lt, shaun, peyton, to, brady...there's 5 players there. any one of those can remain at 5. considering Peyton and Brady's history and TO's big play ability those are probably your top 3 easily...leaving Shaun and LT for 4th and 5th..then you have people like Steve Smith who someone will pick early off the strenght of last year.

Brady is a great QB but he's not the greatest fantasy QB. He's good, no doubt about that, but I would hold off on getting a QB and select a premier runner in that position. I would lean towards LaMont Jordan or Rudi Johnson at the #5. I just don't have confidance in Portis OR Tiki making it a full 16 games.

[DeadlyNiners]

Brady is a great QB but he's not the greatest fantasy QB. He's good, no doubt about that, but I would hold off on getting a QB and select a premier runner in that position. I would lean towards LaMont Jordan or Rudi Johnson at the #5. I just don't have confidance in Portis OR Tiki making it a full 16 games.
Excellent point!

[majesstik1]

My Top 5 (as of today):

1. Shaun Alexander --- will lead the league in TDs again
2. LT --- will be heavily relied upon with Rivers at the helm
3. LJ --- will share carries with Holmes, but will still get enough touches
4. Peyton --- No Edge = more passing
5. Clinton Portis --- Al Saunders is a RBs dream, just ask Holmes and Johnson.

If any of these guys are there, you're in good shape. Right now, on paper, Portis looks to be a notch below the elite 4, but by season's end, he may be the #2 fantasy scorer.

[jerry rice]

Thanks for all the input!!!

It's only the beginning of June and my draft isn't until the first week of September, and I'm nervous already! LOL

This is for my main league, it's 300 bones to enter, so I got some pressure to do good!

This is the 8th year for this (12 team) league, so the owners are pretty savvy. I'm assuming (Like most mock drafts) Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian are gone with the first 3 picks. You can't go wrong with any of those players. It's hard to see any owners passing up on any one of them.

I usually go RB, RB in the first two rounds since the elite RBs are harder to come by. But I'd consider a top WR in round 2. If TO, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson or even Moss are there I'd consider it.

There is no way Peyton lasts to my second round pick and I wouldn't even consider him with my first pick.

Peyton is good and if he has a season like 2 years ago will be the top fantasy player. But since my league only starts 1 QB a week, I can get a good QB much later.

The scoring difference for QBs, isn't as drastic as RBs.

The thing is, if you choose Peyton in the first round. The next QB (Brady) probably won't come off the board until about the third round. There will also be capable QBs in the 4th or 5th and even 6th or later. (Palmer, Eli Manning, McNabb, Bledsoe, Trent Green, Jake Plummer, etc.). All of those QBs are very servicable and have good value and can be had much later in the draft.

The highest I would take a WR is the late first or early second. By taking a WR early, you can still end up with a solid RB in the second round. But in the 3rd round you might have choices of Ahman Green, Droughns, Willie Parker, Dunn. Those aren't bad options, but a bit more risky. Assuming that the top 11 or so RBs have already been taken, hopefully a better prospect, a clear cut starter (Julius Jones, McGahee, Dom Davis) would fall to me if that happened. But I know in my league the good RBs come off the board real quick, so I wouldn't count on it.

But back on subject...

Right now I have Tiki and Portis as number 4 and 5. I've also seen the Edge climbing up the boards recently.

RE: Tiki
He's getting old and might lose some goalline to the Big Brandon Jacobs. But I expect the NYG to be pretty domniant this year. Eli looks like he's getting even better. Tiki catches a lot of passes out the back field and has the knack for the big plays. He's good for atleast 1500+ total yards (Rushing & receiving). I'm not sure he can keep up with the (10+) TD totals though.

RE: Portis
He does not catch as many passes as Tiki. But he really hit his stride in his last half of last year. From week 9 until the end of the season, he had 963 yards rushing and 8 TDs. With an improved WR corps this year, I think the WAS run game can be even more explosive. He is the undisputed number one and does not come out for goalline carries.

Barring injury, both should be solid number ones, so this may be a good problem to have.

Should I take the productive aging vet, or the younger up and coming RB? We will know more as the season gets closer, but I'm leaning towards Portis right now.

[jerry rice]

Here is some analysis for the players that I am considering. It might be helpful for some of you. For others, it might be too long to read. But I've added Ronnie Brown as another player that I am considering. Miami's two-headed running attack last year was good combo. If Ronnie can get all those touches, he could be in for a huge season.

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TIKI BARBER:

Positives

In 2004, Tiki Barber established himself as one of the league’s preeminent tailbacks, leading the league in total yards (2.096). For an encore, Barber delivered a historic 2005 season that included 1,860 rushing yards (2nd in the NFL), 357 carries (3rd), a 5.2 yards-per-rush average and 11 touchdowns. If that wasn’t enough, his 2,390 yards from scrimmage not only led the league for the 2nd consecutive year, it was the 2nd best single season in NFL history. There’s very little Barber can’t do on the football field, including breaking off long TD runs (he had a 95-yarder this year), catching passes (seven consecutive seasons with 50+ receptions), or picking up a blitz to keep Eli Manning off his back.

Negatives

Once known as a prolific fumbler, Barber only fumbled once last year despite a record number of touches. When you’ve been as successful as Barber there aren’t too many areas of concern, but certainly age and physical stature are areas to watch. Barber is 31 years old and the carries are starting to mount. While he’s been durable throughout his career, he clocks in at 5’9”, 195 pounds; hardly ideal size to take a consistent pounding. Finally, his TD totals took a step back last year as Brandon Jacobs vultured seven scores.

Outlook

The cat’s out of the bag. The last two seasons, Tiki Barber was available in drafts a round or two later than he should’ve been and savvy owners benefited from his value. While Barber should again put up solid RB1 numbers barring injury, you’re going to have to draft him in the first round in most leagues. He’s worth a first round pick, but the days of Barber being a great sleeper pick are long gone.
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Clinton Portis:

Positives

In four NFL seasons, Clinton Portis has run for 1,500 yards three times. Last season’s 1,516 yards marked the third time he’s finished in the top-5 for rushing. After a year of adjustment, Portis seems to have found his comfort zone in the Redskins offensive system, as witnessed by his 4.3 yards per rush. While not a prolific receiver, he’s good enough to catch 30-40 balls and a score or two. For a small back, Portis has been a workhorse, carrying the ball 352 times last year; increasing his workload four straight years. New offensive coordinator Al Saunders worked wonders for Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in Kansas City; one has to think he can raise Portis’ game to unprecedented levels.

Negatives

Portis’ yards per rush improved in 2005 but his two-year YPC in Washington (4.1) pales in comparison to his average in Denver (5.5). There’s little question he’s better suited for the zone blocking scheme made popular in Denver. Portis doesn’t have the receiving skills of some of the other elite backs, and he caught a career low 30 passes last season despite playing a full 16 games. Very few backs can handle 350+ carries a season without wearing down, much less someone weighing little more than 200 pounds.

Outlook

It’s hard to argue with Portis fantasy production. His worst season, 2004, was good for 11th among fantasy RBs and last year he finished 6th. There’s virtually nothing Portis can’t do with the ball in his hands, and he should remain a fixture in the top 10 barring injury. Expect at least 1,400 yards rushing and 10+ touchdowns over a full season.
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Ronnie Brown:

Positives

Bad for the Miami Dolphins, good for fantasy team owners. That is how the suspension of RB Ricky Williams should be viewed. Ronnie Brown will now step into 2006 as the undisputed starting RB for the Dolphins. The team may bring in a veteran to back him up, but Brown will not have any serious competition from back up RBs Sammy Morris or Travis Minor. Brown does it all – he rushes and catches the ball equally well, and his blocking skills are developing very nicely. At 6’1” and 213 pounds, Brown has an ideal RB build. The Dolphins added San Francisco fullback Fred Beasley, a stellar lead blocker his entire career, to plow holes open for Brown. With QB Daunted Culpepper likely to miss the first 6 to 8 games of 2006, Brown will see the ball early, often, and consistently. He is the prime offensive weapon in 2006 for the Dolphins. When Culpepper is able to play for the Dolphins, Brown’s numbers should skyrocket. Even with competition from Williams in 2005, Brown managed 32 catches on 47 targets, and those numbers should increase in 2005.

Negatives

Being the primary focus of an offense without a quarterback is a boon and a bust. Brown will face a ton of eight man fronts early in the year. Considering he will cost an early to mid first round selection to acquire, fantasy owners have to seriously consider if they are willing to weather the distinct possibility of low numbers for the first month or so of the season. It does not help that the team faces Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and New England in three of the first six games. Another concern about Brown is durability. Though there are no concrete issues regarding his durability, he split time with Ricky Williams in 2005, and split time throughout his college career at Auburn with Cadillac Williams. The question is whether Brown can stay injury free at the most physically demanding position in the NFL, especially considering that defenses will sell out to stop the run until Culpepper is under center. Culpepper’s rush TDs have decline over the last three seasons, but Culpepper is still a threat to vulture some goal line TDs that would normally be Brown’s.

Outlook

There are two big “ifs” surrounding Brown. If he can take a 16-game pounding as the starting RB, and if he can produce against the eight-man fronts he will see early in the season, then he will certainly be well worth a first round pick. Assuming an owner is willing to take the risk of those early season game, the reward with choosing Brown in the first round is his production once Culpepper returns. The best move may be to stockpile running backs and dangle trade bait to the Brown owner a few weeks into the season. In leagues that reward RBs with PPR, Brown is especially valuable.