Devastating Proof on the Suckage of Carriker

[mach76]

Boy, am I gonna get flamed for this one...

I simply do not understand the current hype around Carriker. Coming from a Big 12 school, I tend to watch Big 12 teams a little more often than other Conference teams, and I have never been that impressed with Carriker. Sure, I'd take him in the 2nd, but at #11? No way!

What has happened with his draft status is what happens every year -- a prospect with mediocre numbers rockets up the draft boards due to good measurables and the work of the hype machine.

However, I'm not gonna put forth a thesis without proof. I did some analysis of Carriker's stats for 2006, and came up with some very interesting results. Now, I realize that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they do tell part of the story.

So to start off on the statistical analysis...
I found Carriker's game-by-game stats at this website:
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2006&org=463&player=90

Here's a summary of his stats:
2006 Totals
Tackles
Ast. 28 (4 for a loss)
Solo 24 (12 for a loss)
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 7
QB Hurries 7
Right away, a big red flag is waved in the form of 28 assisted tackles. Assisted tackles take different forms -- some are just cleanup and some are primary with secondary help. Without watching film, there's no way to tell what the majority of his were. However, it does make me curious as to how many of those were a result of gang-tackling by a good defense.

Continuing with my analysis, I broke down the teams that Nebraska played into the following categories:

Top-Tier (Teams in strong conferences that dominated)
Above Average (Teams in strong conferences with an overall winning record and at or slightly above .500 in conference play)
Below Average (Teams in strong conferences with under .500 conference records)
Lousy (Teams in weak or no-name conferences)

I then compiled Carriker's stats for each of those categories.

Top-Tier (USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn)
Tackles
Ast. 6 (0 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.5
Solo 5 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.25
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .25
QB Hurries 0

Above Average (Kansas St., Missouri, Texas A&M)
Tackles
Ast. 5 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.67
Solo 3 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .33
QB Hurries 0

Below Average (Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma St., Colorado)
Tackles
Ast. 10 (2 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.5
Solo 11 (7 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.75
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 4 with a per game avg of 1
QB Hurries 3 with a per game avg of .75

Lousy (Louisiana Tech, Nicholls St., Troy [good record, but terrible conference])
Tackles
Ast. 7 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.33
Solo 5 (3 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.67
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .33
QB Hurries 4 with a per game avg of 1.33

Summary
Against the Top 7 Teams
Tackles
Ast. 11 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.57
Solo 8 (2 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.14
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 2 with a per game avg of .28
QB Hurries 0

Against the Bottom 7 Teams
Tackles
Ast. 17 (3 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.43
Solo 16 (10 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.29
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 5 with a per game avg of .71
QB Hurries 7 with a per game avg of 1

Take from these stats what you will, but to me it shows a player that dominates against weak competition and gets dominated by strong competition. Not exactly the game-breaker type of pick that I want at #11. He got next to no pressure on the QB nor virtually any solo tackles when playing against top competition. He became essentially a run-stopper only, and if we're just looking for a run-stopper there are plenty of 3-6 rounders that can play that role (Mebane, Keith Jackson, etc.).

[SBbound49ers]

Its hard to put stats on what he does for a team.

Hes excellent vs the run and frees up other guys to allow them to do their thing. Several Carriker fans have pointed out how Jay Moore really benefited from Carriker's success.

I agree with you that he's slightly overrated and Im not pulling for him at 11 but I wouldnt go as far to say he has a 2nd round grade.

Good post though, well put together. I especially agree with the last paragraph.....to an extent.

[MisfitZ]

your stats missed 7 sacks and he averaged 3 tackles a game against upper level teams

[Alti50]

at least you did your homework..i don't like the kid. I want a guy with a higher ceiling, than a need pick right now. I think we can get by with Oliver at the moment.

[sosaucy408]

is suckage a real word?

[TheNextDynasty]

I know this has been said a million times, but I got to make it a million + one:

Stats like tackles and sacks for a 3-4 DE are arbitrary.

If they played the game on paper, you got a point. But they don't. They don't keep stats that would accurately describe what this guy brings to the defense.

[mach76]

your stats missed 7 sacks and he averaged 3 tackles a game against upper level teams

For 2006,

2 sacks against top level + 5 sacks against lower level = 7
there's your sacks...

Avg 1.57 assisted tackles and avg 1.14 solo against top level = 2.71 total tackles/game against top competition

I don't believe I missed anything!?

[49ER-EXTREMIST]

WOW!!!! Did not know.Nice job looking this stuff up for us.I still like him,but he did take a small step back in my book after reading your post.

[mach76]

I know this has been said a million times, but I got to make it a million + one:

Stats like tackles and sacks for a 3-4 DE are arbitrary.

If they played the game on paper, you got a point. But they don't. They don't keep stats that would accurately describe what this guy brings to the defense.

Are you one of the fans that was hyping Rashaun Woods a few years ago? Probably...

[mach76]

Nolan coached against Carriker in the Senior Bowl and was very impressed. You can pull out all the stats you want but stats don't show heart or character.

And your proof of this is where?

[imabored]

why does stats matter when its in college?

[mach76]

why does stats matter when its in college?

Well if you don't get sacks in college are you suddenly gonna start when you get to the NFL? If stats don't matter at all, lets just pick the guy with the coolest name and the prettiest measurables.

[TheNextDynasty]

Are you one of the fans that was hyping Rashaun Woods a few years ago? Probably...

No. I wanted Wilfork. Why does Woods matter? You're the one that thinks stats matter so much. Didn't Woods have a 7 TD game. You'd probably cream yourself looking that up.

[majesstik1]

While I applaud your effort here, the stats are a bit deceiving. Carriker's job was to take on multiple gap assignments, clog running lanes, and push the pocket. He was not used as a pass rusher, that was Moore's job, yet Carriker still managed 7 sacks on the season. The majority of college kids only dominated lesser opponents, but the ones getting the first round grades played well or better during those games. You want a guy who completely disappeared in big games, look at Branch.

Our draft position this year is not ideal. If you look at the value of who's to be available for us from a historic perspective, nothing we draft will fit a need, except Levi Brown, but his position isn't our greatest need. ILBs are usually drafted in the 20's, and very rarely does one go top 15. Urlacher went 11 in 2000, and Willis checks in near the same caliber, but value-wise, it's questionable. There are absolutely no NTs worth using the 11th on, Landry will be off the board, we don't take 1st round CBs, and we won't use the 11th on a QB, RB, FB, TE, G, C, K, or P. This leave a choice of the aforementioned Brown, a WR, or a DE...possibly Willis. Meachem presents value, but I'm not sure we're willing to take a WR in round 1.

The DEs that could be available to us all have different niches. Anderson is the big, pass rush specialist that seems a better fit for the 4-3, but could transition to the 3-4 and could be a solid pick for us. Adams would have to move back to OLB, and we have plenty young OLBs on our roster already. Branch doesn't have the value for us at 11, we should have a choice of better athletes/impact players when our selection comes up. Then there's Carriker, who has played every position on the DL, has played in a 4-3 and 3-4 in college, has plenty of experience, and good character. He may have the lower ceiling between him and Anderson, but you also know what you're getting, and can depend on that for the next 10 years. Personally, I prefer the guys that already demonstrate they are ready to play immediately, over the risk/reward guys. Okoye falls into that risk/reward category. He was awful against the run in college, and is an upfield DT that will excell in a 4-3. Perhaps he can transition, but again, we're looking at risk/reward.

With Carriker, it's what you see is what you get. He's going to be able to play for us from day 1, do a solid job, and he can can play in any front, so if we mix it up often, he'll be ready to play any position we ask. The question is value. Do we value DE, ILB, WR, or OT highest? If the answer is DE, then what type of player are we after? The all-around performer, the specialist, or a risk/reward. This is another expensive pick, so getting it right is important.

[mach76]

No. I wanted Wilfork. Why does Woods matter? You're the one that thinks stats matter so much. Didn't Woods have a 7 TD game. You'd probably cream yourself looking that up.

As I said in my original post "statistics don't tell the whole story, but they do tell part of the story." Woods did have a 7 touchdown game which gained him much acclaim on these boards. What was ignored, however, was that it was against an extremely weak team. I currently see Carriker gaining acclaim in much the same manner (i.e. his performance against weak competition).

I bring up Woods because I see the same "Group Think" (on this board) that took place with him, taking place with Carriker. People haven't really watched film on him (just highlights), they haven't analyzed his stats, but, mysteriously, they've fallen in love with him because some draft "expert" compared him to Richard Seymour.

[Modesto49er]

Boy, am I gonna get flamed for this one...

I simply do not understand the current hype around Carriker. Coming from a Big 12 school, I tend to watch Big 12 teams a little more often than other Conference teams, and I have never been that impressed with Carriker. Sure, I'd take him in the 2nd, but at #11? No way!

What has happened with his draft status is what happens every year -- a prospect with mediocre numbers rockets up the draft boards due to good measurables and the work of the hype machine.

However, I'm not gonna put forth a thesis without proof. I did some analysis of Carriker's stats for 2006, and came up with some very interesting results. Now, I realize that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they do tell part of the story.

So to start off on the statistical analysis...
I found Carriker's game-by-game stats at this website:
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2006&org=463&player=90

Here's a summary of his stats:
2006 Totals
Tackles
Ast. 28 (4 for a loss)
Solo 24 (12 for a loss)
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 7
QB Hurries 7
Right away, a big red flag is waved in the form of 28 assisted tackles. Assisted tackles take different forms -- some are just cleanup and some are primary with secondary help. Without watching film, there's no way to tell what the majority of his were. However, it does make me curious as to how many of those were a result of gang-tackling by a good defense.

Continuing with my analysis, I broke down the teams that Nebraska played into the following categories:

Top-Tier (Teams in strong conferences that dominated)
Above Average (Teams in strong conferences with an overall winning record and at or slightly above .500 in conference play)
Below Average (Teams in strong conferences with under .500 conference records)
Lousy (Teams in weak or no-name conferences)

I then compiled Carriker's stats for each of those categories.

Top-Tier (USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn)
Tackles
Ast. 6 (0 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.5
Solo 5 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.25
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .25
QB Hurries 0

Above Average (Kansas St., Missouri, Texas A&M)
Tackles
Ast. 5 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.67
Solo 3 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .33
QB Hurries 0

Below Average (Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma St., Colorado)
Tackles
Ast. 10 (2 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.5
Solo 11 (7 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.75
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 4 with a per game avg of 1
QB Hurries 3 with a per game avg of .75

Lousy (Louisiana Tech, Nicholls St., Troy [good record, but terrible conference])
Tackles
Ast. 7 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.33
Solo 5 (3 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.67
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 1 with a per game avg of .33
QB Hurries 4 with a per game avg of 1.33

Summary
Against the Top 7 Teams
Tackles
Ast. 11 (1 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.57
Solo 8 (2 for a loss) with a per game avg of 1.14
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 2 with a per game avg of .28
QB Hurries 0

Against the Bottom 7 Teams
Tackles
Ast. 17 (3 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.43
Solo 16 (10 for a loss) with a per game avg of 2.29
Sacks
Ast. 0
Solo 5 with a per game avg of .71
QB Hurries 7 with a per game avg of 1

Take from these stats what you will, but to me it shows a player that dominates against weak competition and gets dominated by strong competition. Not exactly the game-breaker type of pick that I want at #11. He got next to no pressure on the QB nor virtually any solo tackles when playing against top competition. He became essentially a run-stopper only, and if we're just looking for a run-stopper there are plenty of 3-6 rounders that can play that role (Mebane, Keith Jackson, etc.).



Thank you ive been tryin to say this for awhile. Before the senior bowl and the combine i really liked him in the 3rd. Now they have him goin in the top 10, lol. I use to watch the huskers a lot too. I like carriker but not in the first. These guys get prepared for the combine so you really shouldnt rely on the numbers that they put up, u need to rely on the tape. Carriker is a good prospect but takin him in the first with the 11th pick is way too high. People jus jumped on the carriker badwagon, they probaly know nothing about him except from the senior bowl and combine. People have really high expectations for him, he'll be good but hes not gonna post double digit sacks like a top 10 DE is drafted to do. I think it would be a real waste to use the 11th pick on him. Willis number 11.

[TheNextDynasty]

No. I wanted Wilfork. Why does Woods matter? You're the one that thinks stats matter so much. Didn't Woods have a 7 TD game. You'd probably cream yourself looking that up.

As I said in my original post "statistics don't tell the whole story, but they do tell part of the story." Woods did have a 7 touchdown game which gained him much acclaim on these boards. What was ignored, however, was that it was against an extremely weak team. I currently see Carriker gaining acclaim in much the same manner (i.e. his performance against weak competition).

I bring up Woods because I see the same "Group Think" (on this board) that took place with him, taking place with Carriker. People haven't really watched film on him (just highlights), they haven't analyzed his stats, but, mysteriously, they've fallen in love with him because some draft "expert" compared him to Richard Seymour.

I can't speak for the others you're grouping me into, but I've seen plenty of Carriker's games. I know what he can do. I don't need stats to tell me. You said it yourself, stats don't tell the entire story. Especially when you're using stats that don't correlate to the 3-4 DE. If you want 15+ sacks from a 3-4 DE, then Carriker isn't your guy. If you want a guy that does exactly what a 3-4 DE is supposed to do (dominate the point-of-attack, take on double teams, collapse the pocket and free up the LBs) then Carriker is a dream come true.

[mach76]

How many times was he double teamed? That's what you want of your 3-4 DE.

This is obviously something that stats don't show. However, a lot of people on this board are making it sound like he was double teamed because of his dominating skills. But my question is why would another team double-team a player who hasn't shown a consistent ability to get to the QB? I think people are confusing a double-team with a 2-gap assignment. A double team is an offensive move to counter a dominating defenseman. A 2-gap is a defensive move/scheme. I would argue that a double team and a 2-gap assignment are quite different in the dynamic they bring to a team.

[TheINch]

This is obviously something that stats don't show. However, a lot of people on this board are making it sound like he was double teamed because of his dominating skills. But my question is why would another team double-team a player who hasn't shown a consistent ability to get to the QB? I think people are confusing a double-team with a 2-gap assignment. A double team is an offensive move to counter a dominating defenseman. A 2-gap is a defensive move/scheme. I would argue that a double team and a 2-gap assignment are quite different in the dynamic they bring to a team.

They would double team him because he was dominant his Junior year when he was fully healthy. Judging a 2-gap player by stats is ridiculous, look at film.

[knightdreamer]

Good point. The title is of this thread is degrading and the arguement is based on stats.

[mach76]

They would double team him because he was dominant his Junior year when he was fully healthy. Judging a 2-gap player by stats is ridiculous, look at film.

Was he double-teamed or in a 2-gap assignment on every play? If so, I would be all over the Carriker bandwagon. Of the 3 games I saw him play in this past year, I don't recall seeing him double-teamed once and you never really know what a defensive player's assignment is. Of course, I wasn't scouting him nor paying particularly close attention to him, so who knows... I just think that it's a little presumptuous to say that his assignment was always a 2-gap, when none of us really know for what % of defensive plays that was his responsibility.

[imabored]

Well if you don't get sacks in college are you suddenly gonna start when you get to the NFL? If stats don't matter at all, lets just pick the guy with the coolest name and the prettiest measurables.

you could get as much sacks as you want, it doesn't mean that you are gonna be a good NFL player or even a starter

[MisfitZ]

This is obviously something that stats don't show. However, a lot of people on this board are making it sound like he was double teamed because of his dominating skills. But my question is why would another team double-team a player who hasn't shown a consistent ability to get to the QB? I think people are confusing a double-team with a 2-gap assignment. A double team is an offensive move to counter a dominating defenseman. A 2-gap is a defensive move/scheme. I would argue that a double team and a 2-gap assignment are quite different in the dynamic they bring to a team.

ok he was lined up usually TE side right above Tackle charged with taking up two gaps and sometimes two lineman his job is not glamourous or sexy so it makes him less likely to impress certain people on this board they dont understand the dirty work guys are what we need for the 3-4..................your confident in Melvin Oliver next year(stout on the run but i saw nothing that made me think he can take on 2 gap responsibilites hes also about 20 pounds lighter then what i believe 3-4 DEs should be(BY is gone next year and Douglas is a free agent)who else do we have

[MisfitZ]

Good numbers. It is true though that there are many players we can get in the 3rd-6th round that can just focus on stopping the run. Maybe some that will do a better job than carriker. Just another reason we should go with a solid linebacker core and draft WILLIS

the dlineman in the 3-6 round are such a drop off from carriker

[TheWiz]

Just to start things off Mach...nice article. While I'm about to disagree with it on several levels, it was well worth listening to. Any opinion that isn't just heresay that is backed by stats and a logical argument is well respected in my eyes. You presented an idea, supported it, and arrived at a well-defined conclusion. Now permit me to state my disagreements with it.

1) Focusing on recent numbers tends bias and trying to avoid previous years' success. While I'm not going to engage in a game by game comparison in his prior years, you're free to do so in rebuttle of my claim. He was a steady improver through college. He was playing a lot by his sophomore year I believe and started his last 2 campaigns. Along the way he also won a team award for strength training. He presented a steady trend of size and power increase and level of play each season incrementally. If you want to limit him by his senior year numbers I will counter by saying next year, when he plays with us, you can only expect an even better player in red and gold.

2) The hype has a lot less to do with anything combine based. Heck, Carriker isn't some prospect out of the blue. I barely follow college ball, watch only a few key games and then the big bowl games, and in December I heard of him as a 1st rounder. Early in January after bowl season and before the shrine games he was listed as a likely 20-32 pick. Mind you these same people also had Moses as a 10-15 pick, Woodley a 5-10 pick, and Hall was a seemingly guaranteed 5-10 pick. It would be something if Carriker was a ghost on the landscape and then posted heroic combine numbers and zoomed into the 1st round. He was already there and only proved in the senior bowl practices that he has what it takes. He showed up in better shape than half his opposition with a tremendously strong first 2 steps and embarassed some OL. He added 5-10 spots to his worth right then and there and was a 15-25 pick overnight.

3) Good teams play well. That means that a rising DE who has mangled some smaller schools is not someone they will test. The college season is often formulaic. If you're a contending team you easily play 3 chumps to start the year, teams you expect to be easy confidence builders. Good players, especially 1st day level seniors had better run all over these pretenders. However, when they do it well they tend to raise flags. Good teams tend to play away from them. Sure they may toss a cursory weak dive at the player to try and catch him off guard and keep the defense on their heals. But usually if a team has a dominant DE, you run away from that player, roll out away from them, and add in a backside FB to double on him off the edge. Somehow I'd bet the DE and DT opposite Carriker played well in those big games. Feel free to prove me wrong.

4) Stats reveal nothing about Pro play. Seriously, since when do college stats EVER correlate heavily to professional production? You know, plenty of players from Dorsey to Mirer posted great college results and some failed to in the college ranks and exploded in the NFL. Heck, if you want to look at hype, look at Meachem. A guy who statistically went from kitten to king of the pride his senior year, had a solid combine, and jumped twice the distance Carriker did from early January when he was an early 2nd rounder.

5) You've got to believe in the peanut gallery. From a once over, Carriker is in fact a very strong prospect. He has the 6'4"-6'6" height that lately so many dominant DE's have, he's easily in the 295-305 range that most such starters fill. He showed clear dominance in man on drills in senior week and was a large part of a very dominant DL in that contest. He has won praise as having a high motor, a strength development award in a big program, and showed plenty of good measurables at the combine. He passes the sniff test. He has an instant "must pick" tagged on him as a LDE for any 3-4 team outside of the top-15 and while I still argue his earliest value match is 2 or 3 picks below us in terms of latent value, this year we can get him at a very slight 'reach'. The kind where you can't afford to trade the pick down to get even and also no team wants to move up. It happens often and is not a draft faux-pas.

As much as I was a pro-Okoye guy before the combine, Carriker has shown his ability to round out as a very fine 1st round choice for us whereas I expect Okoye to be off the boards earlier.

Right now I honestly think that we're looking at 3 scenarios. Can we possibly trade up an hour into day 1 and get Landry for a reasonable cost? Would Houston or Atlanta honestly be interested in a package that is worth it if Brown falls to the 8th pick and if it is worth it for us. Lastly, provided Carriker falls to us, who else would we rather take? I think that if we can get Landry for a small cost we will. If that fails we wait until the draft and if Brown is falling, we call ATL for a deal and try that out. If they want to much we take our chances but pick Brown before Carriker. Carriker ends up a slight, tiny value loss but a solid pick for us nonetheless.

[MisfitZ]

good post wiz seems like youve been really warming up to carriker

[killercrossover]

very good post and nice read.

[49ersRus]

I don't like to use stats for lineman, offense or defense, because I think there is a lot of teamwork involved in their success. The overall team stats is more interesting to me, for what those are worth.

It does look like you have done a lot of work here, and the stats are interesting. Particularly as it puts them in context for those who use Carriker's sacks as a basis for picking him at #11.

Holding the POA and handling double teams is more of an interior line stat then a 43 DE stat. A 43 DE is usually getting doubled by a TE, while a DT/NT has a G/C double teaming them. Its really not comparable. This is my biggest concern about Carriker. Is he tough enough to handle a double team from both an NFL OT & OG? We won't know until game time. I would prefer if we converted a DT to our 34 DE position.

This is not a great year for 34 DL or DT's in general. If Okoye wasn't 19, he would be a late first round talent. Can he live up to a top 10 billing? I think so, and he could be a monster, but we won't find out for at least a couple of years.

Branch has the measurable and I think the on field performance to justify the top 10 position. Some question his heart or his work ethic. I don't agree. If I were to put a question mark on him, it would be maturity. During his interviews he told scouts he relaxed by drawing in coloring books, and spends his off time watching cartoons all day. This explains the no show at the senior bowl (to shake hands) and his weight issue at the combine/pro-day, better then laziness IMO. With the right coaching staff, I think this can be addressed. Its still a question mark.

Okoye and Branch are the guys I like too, lol. DL is the biggets hole we have, followed by WR. We have not had a true #1 WR since we lost TO. I see us picking DL or WR before any other position. If we have to reach, lets at least plug a hole.

With all of the picks we have, this could be the draft that can turn us into a consistant playoff caliber team for the next 4 to 5 years. This is why Nolan gets paid the big bucks!

[MisfitZ]

3) Good teams play well. That means that a rising DE who has mangled some smaller schools is not someone they will test. The college season is often formulaic. If you're a contending team you easily play 3 chumps to start the year, teams you expect to be easy confidence builders. Good players, especially 1st day level seniors had better run all over these pretenders. However, when they do it well they tend to raise flags. Good teams tend to play away from them. Sure they may toss a cursory weak dive at the player to try and catch him off guard and keep the defense on their heals. But usually if a team has a dominant DE, you run away from that player, roll out away from them, and add in a backside FB to double on him off the edge. Somehow I'd bet the DE and DT opposite Carriker played well in those big games. Feel free to prove me wrong.


i decieded to test your theory
Stewart Bradley who plays SLB in the Nebraska defense so he plays opposite side of carriker in those games against big name teams
10 tackles at USC
6 tackles at Texas
7 tackles at Auburn
2 tackles at Oklahoma
Thats 25 tackles right there

Jay Moore RDE
1 tackle at USC
4 tackles at Texas
3 tackles at Oklahoma
6 tackles at Auburn
14 tackles

[MisfitZ]

Holding the POA and handling double teams is more of an interior line stat then a 43 DE stat. A 43 DE is usually getting doubled by a TE, while a DT/NT has a G/C double teaming them. Its really not comparable. This is my biggest concern about Carriker. Is he tough enough to handle a double team from both an NFL OT & OG? We won't know until game time. I would prefer if we converted a DT to our 34 DE position


yet the same can be asked of Willis can he shed blocks and make plays in the hole without 2 DTs in front of him when he has a hard time anyway doing that

[mach76]

That's not devestating proof by any means. Appreciate the effort, but a little overboard on the title.

Not really intended as devastating proof...just wanted to raise some new, unheard, unmentioned points. The title was all about marketing my thread. :dance2:

[daredevil2-5]

Right now I honestly think that we're looking at 3 scenarios. Can we possibly trade up an hour into day 1 and get Landry for a reasonable cost? Would Houston or Atlanta honestly be interested in a package that is worth it if Brown falls to the 8th pick and if it is worth it for us. Lastly, provided Carriker falls to us, who else would we rather take? I think that if we can get Landry for a small cost we will. If that fails we wait until the draft and if Brown is falling, we call ATL for a deal and try that out. If they want to much we take our chances but pick Brown before Carriker. Carriker ends up a slight, tiny value loss but a solid pick for us nonetheless.Just trade us Kwame Harris since we're REALLY after him!!!

[AndyLeeMVP]

Right now I honestly think that we're looking at 3 scenarios. Can we possibly trade up an hour into day 1 and get Landry for a reasonable cost? Would Houston or Atlanta honestly be interested in a package that is worth it if Brown falls to the 8th pick and if it is worth it for us. Lastly, provided Carriker falls to us, who else would we rather take? I think that if we can get Landry for a small cost we will. If that fails we wait until the draft and if Brown is falling, we call ATL for a deal and try that out. If they want to much we take our chances but pick Brown before Carriker. Carriker ends up a slight, tiny value loss but a solid pick for us nonetheless.

How much do you think we would give up in a trade up? I think if we wanted to trade up for landry, we would have to go to #6. I wonder, since washington does not have a lot of day 1 picks, if they would accept lesser value.

[badass316]

Very good read and a very interesting point of view Mach. I for one never really did not like the idea of taking carriker with the 11th pick. I hope come draft day Landry either falls to us or we make a move to get him. Otherwise I would much rather have Patrick Willis with the 11th pick and just draft a DT like Justin Harrell in the 2nd and use him as our DE. We can then use our 3rd to draft a WR like Jason Hill. It would be great if we can somehow acquire Jenkins from Carolina for either a couple of 4ths this year of a 3rd next year. Harrell - Jenkins - BY looks pretty dominant to me, more than likely it wont happen, but I dare to dream :)

[SB49er4life]

I know this has been said a million times, but I got to make it a million + one:

Stats like tackles and sacks for a 3-4 DE are arbitrary.

If they played the game on paper, you got a point. But they don't. They don't keep stats that would accurately describe what this guy brings to the defense.

Pretty much all of the highlights I saw were of him in lined up in a 4-3, and no NCAA team really uses the 3-4 that much anyways. If he can't get that great of pressure on a QB with 3 other D-lineman next to him, and especially non-existent against powerhouse teams with 0-lineman closer to ones he'd face in the NFL, then I don't see how he adds that much in terms of even freeing up other rushers. A 3-4 DE doesn't get doubled-up by the offense just for the simple fact of where he is lined up; he's got to be unblockable 1-on-1.

Let's revisit our defense/draft priorities:

Position Most Needed: DE/NT

Why we need that Position: To improve pass rush


Sure Carriker seems to have the tools to be a solid end in a 3-4, but he is just not that great of a pass rusher to constantly demand double teams to free up other pass rushers. Drafting him would make as much sense as drafting an OT that excels at run blocking when the priority is to provide better pass protection.

I can see him being a total wall against the run, but IMO, theres area's on offense we need to improve that take priority over our run defense.

[SB49er4life]

yet the same can be asked of Willis can he shed blocks and make plays in the hole without 2 DTs in front of him when he has a hard time anyway doing that

Every player has questions coming in; there is really no "perfect" prospect. There's all these things on players, whether it's Willis, Carriker, anybody, that you can in their defense or against them, it just comes down to heart and pure football ability. If a player is a true football player, not an athletic specimen getting primed to play the sport of football, they can succeed in ANY system to some degree or another.

Being suited for a particular system on paper and game-time performance are two completely different things; that's why these debates are getting mindless. I'm starting to hope that we just draft someone stupid like Daymeion Hughes just so we can all shut up.

[mach76]

Another point that I forgot to bring up in my first post is that Carriker accumulated his stats over 14 games, whereas the vast majority of other college teams only played 12 or 13 games.

[SB49er4life]

Another point that I forgot to bring up in my first post is that Carriker accumulated his stats over 14 games, whereas the vast majority of other college teams only played 12 or 13 games.

Oh, and you left out that not only did Carriker not get a sack against USC, he didn't even "free up" any of his teammates to.

[majesstik1]

How much do you think we would give up in a trade up? I think if we wanted to trade up for landry, we would have to go to #6. I wonder, since washington does not have a lot of day 1 picks, if they would accept lesser value.

I don't think we have the pieces to make a trade with WAS. They've talked with CHI about Briggs, and NE about Samuel. We don't have that type of ammo. In order for us to get to the 6th pick (were Landry to fall that far), you're looking at us trading 11, 76, 104, and 110. That's not horrible, but I'm guessing WAS would rather add proven talent along with some picks in order to move down.

Very good read and a very interesting point of view Mach. I for one never really did not like the idea of taking carriker with the 11th pick. I hope come draft day Landry either falls to us or we make a move to get him. Otherwise I would much rather have Patrick Willis with the 11th pick and just draft a DT like Justin Harrell in the 2nd and use him as our DE. We can then use our 3rd to draft a WR like Jason Hill. It would be great if we can somehow acquire Jenkins from Carolina for either a couple of 4ths this year of a 3rd next year. Harrell - Jenkins - BY looks pretty dominant to me, more than likely it wont happen, but I dare to dream :)

I think you may severely under-estimating what round these two will be drafted in.

[MisfitZ]

Pretty much all of the highlights I saw were of him in lined up in a 4-3, and no NCAA team really uses the 3-4 that much anyways. If he can't get that great of pressure on a QB with 3 other D-lineman next to him, and especially non-existent against powerhouse teams with 0-lineman closer to ones he'd face in the NFL, then I don't see how he adds that much in terms of even freeing up other rushers. A 3-4 DE doesn't get doubled-up by the offense just for the simple fact of where he is lined up; he's got to be unblockable 1-on-1.

Let's revisit our defense/draft priorities:

Position Most Needed: DE/NT

Why we need that Position: To improve pass rush


Sure Carriker seems to have the tools to be a solid end in a 3-4, but he is just not that great of a pass rusher to constantly demand double teams to free up other pass rushers. Drafting him would make as much sense as drafting an OT that excels at run blocking when the priority is to provide better pass protection.

I can see him being a total wall against the run, but IMO, theres area's on offense we need to improve that take priority over our run defense.

1st bolded part i bolded because you obvisously did not see the senior bowl practices where he was the most dominated Dlineman there

2nd Bolded part he had 7 sacks thats not horrible and lets see good ol patrick willis had ummmm how many and in a 3-4 hes going to have to be able to blitz.


Adams career
26 games 95 tackles 32 tfl 16 sacks 6 PDs 17 qb hurries 1 int 1 blocked kick

[AndyLeeMVP]

I don't think we have the pieces to make a trade with WAS. They've talked with CHI about Briggs, and NE about Samuel. We don't have that type of ammo. In order for us to get to the 6th pick (were Landry to fall that far), you're looking at us trading 11, 76, 104, and 110. That's not horrible, but I'm guessing WAS would rather add proven talent along with some picks in order to move down.



I would suggest moving smiley as i think they could use a guard to replace dockery, but after that article maiocco wrote saying that our players are unlikely to be moved on draft day, i guess that wont work.

[badass316]

I think you may severely under-estimating what round these two will be drafted in.

Harrell is a late 1st early 2nd prospect, so I see no reason as to why he cant fall to our pick in the 2nd. Were close enough to the top of the 2nd to merit some sort of chance at him. Hill is a 3rd round prospect is he not? Im more than aware that they probably wont fall but I listed it anway because its not out of the realm of possibility if they did.

[49BY97]

Well I saw that misfitz threw up a Carriker stat line so I thought I'd put up Willis'.

Patrick Willis:
He's played in 45 games, starting in 22 of those. He had 355 total tackles; 247 of which were solo, 108 assisted tackles. He had 33 tackles for loss and got 11 sacks.

In addtion:

on 5 seperate occasions Willis had 15 tackles in a single game(most recently vs. Auburn on 10/28/06)

Yes, that's right, Willis is ballin' in the SEC!
*Note that this post is not an attack on Carriker, it's just to show that Willis definately gets it done)

[Sum49er33]

:gathering:

When it comes to this guy, I think U gotta look at the tape. BIG Adam was takin' on 2-3 guys freeing up Bradley and Moore to make plays. This is what he'd be called on to do in the 3-4 system. Also, at 6-6 he could add some weight to get to the 302-305 range. Adding to his resume his combine #s were sick he benched 225 33 times and ran a 4.7 40 time. That's as fast as some receivers and TEs. My top choices for # 11 are Mr. Carriker and Jamaal Anderson from Arkansas.

[NinerRider]

Branch/Anderson > Carriker

[majesstik1]

I would suggest moving smiley as i think they could use a guard to replace dockery, but after that article maiocco wrote saying that our players are unlikely to be moved on draft day, i guess that wont work.

Hmm...Smiley, Briggs, Samuel...who's more valuable? (I ask you answer this question without any home team bias).

Harrell is a late 1st early 2nd prospect, so I see no reason as to why he cant fall to our pick in the 2nd. Were close enough to the top of the 2nd to merit some sort of chance at him. Hill is a 3rd round prospect is he not? Im more than aware that they probably wont fall but I listed it anway because its not out of the realm of possibility if they did.

Harrell is a late first, and with the teams that pick ahead of us in round two, I don't see anyway he gets by TB, CLE, CHI, ARI, MIA, and MIN and somehow we get a shot at him. Believe me, I'd be estatic if he fell that far. Hill is currently graded as a 2nd round prospect, and depending on the team, he could go high round 2 if the team is looking for an immediate contributor, and not a project.

[mach76]

Branch/Anderson > Carriker

I'm not sure if I agree with you about Branch, but I do find it interesting that Michigan's run defense was ranked #1 and Nebraska's ranked #37.
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2006&div=4&rpt=IA_teamrushdef&site=org

Since the consensus seems to be that both Branch and Carriker were used primarily to take on 2 linemen, the question is "was Branch more effective at that job?"... I mean, some people were saying about Carriker, "Don't look at his stats...look at the stats of the surrounding players." Well lets apply this concept equally and say the same about Branch. The conclusion we would reach is that Branch is better than Carriker...yes?

[majesstik1]

I'm not sure if I agree with you about Branch, but I do find it interesting that Michigan's run defense was ranked #1 and Nebraska's ranked #37.
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2006&div=4&rpt=IA_teamrushdef&site=org

Since the consensus seems to be that both Branch and Carriker were used primarily to take on 2 linemen, the question is "was Branch more effective at that job?"... I mean, some people were saying about Carriker, "Don't look at his stats...look at the stats of the surrounding players." Well lets apply this concept equally and say the same about Branch. The conclusion we would reach is that Branch is better than Carriker...yes?

For the most part, you can throw stats out the window. Watching the way a player competes and performs means more to scouts than stats. Technique, desire, coachability...none of those things will show up on a stats page.

[MisfitZ]

Well I saw that misfitz threw up a Carriker stat line so I thought I'd put up Willis'.

Patrick Willis:
He's played in 45 games, starting in 22 of those. He had 355 total tackles; 247 of which were solo, 108 assisted tackles. He had 33 tackles for loss and got 11 sacks.

In addtion:

on 5 seperate occasions Willis had 15 tackles in a single game(most recently vs. Auburn on 10/28/06)

Yes, that's right, Willis is ballin' in the SEC!
*Note that this post is not an attack on Carriker, it's just to show that Willis definately gets it done)

First off hes a MLB so you cant compare the two

Getting 15 tackles against Auburns offense IMO is like getting it against a very weak div 1 team there offense isnt what makes them good.

Also nobody is saying that Willis doesnt get it done just that he doesnt fit our system as well as Carriker. he will be a beast in a 4-3 in a 3-4 im not so sure

I didnt put Willis numbers up because noobs will come on look at them and freak out about it and plus this was a Carriker thread

[EdGrenade]

Anyone that compares to Richard Seymore is good for me!

[Rexi]

Rep just for the thread title. Someone who has an actual position on something and the confidence to say it is always refreshing on this board.

[agent23]

Let's take a look at some of the stats of 3-4 DEs who are part of the better 3-4 teams around the league and see what kind of stats they put up..(I'll bold the sack numbers)
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
New England:Ty Warren 15 84 56.0 28 7.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 4
Richard Seymour 16 40 22.0 18 4 1 0 0.0 0 0 7

San Diego: Luis Castillo 10 37 28.0 9 7 1 1 1.0 1 0 0
Igor Olshansky 13 33 18.0 15 1.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

Pittsburgh: Aaron Smith 16 61 44.0 17 4.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Brett Keisel 16 55 38.0 17 5.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 4

Dallas: Marcus Spears 16 45 29.0 16 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 2
Chris Canty 16 33 24.0 9 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 1


So from the top 4 3-4 teams in the league, the most sacks was by Ty Warren at 7.5. You can make an argument for Luis Castillo and say he could have cracked double digit sacks if he played more than 10 games last season. The point I'm trying to make is, these guys aren't exactly considered sack machines BUT they are essential to their teams success despite not getting a JABILLION sacks like some posters on here want from a 3-4 DE.

Another argument laid out was, we can find guys in the other rounds to fill in our 3-4 DE needs. Well, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Luis Castillo, and Marcus Spears were all drafted in the 1st round. Igor Olshansky was drafted in the top of the 2nd round. Chris Canty was drafted in the 4th and the Steelers duo was drafted in the 7th round. 3 out of the 4 top 3-4 teams have DE's drafted in the 1st round of the draft, which should tell you something. It ain't easy finding these guys in the latter portions of the draft.

One last thing. How did Ray Lewis do in the 3-4 without a dominating front 3?? How did less heralded linebackers (Tedy Bruschi is NOT on the level of Ray Lewis) on the Patriots do with a strong d-line? How do you think Patrick Willis is going to do? If we ran a 4-3, I'll be all for grabbing him. I just feel like his talents would be wasted on a 3-4 defensive team like ours.

I know people want guys with more upside such as Okoye, Anderson and Branch. What if these guys never reach their potential? At least we know what we are getting with Carriker. He will give us about 5 sacks a year but he will free up our hopefully agressive linebacker unit and give right tackles, right guards and centers fits for the next decade.

If Laron Landry falls to us though, all bets are off.

Can't wait for the draft to find out if I'm just a jerk for being so Pro-Carriker (or more like pro-DE/DT in the first round) after we select Patrick Willis or Robert Meachem.

[DraconisRex]

For 2006,

2 sacks against top level + 5 sacks against lower level = 7
there's your sacks...

Avg 1.57 assisted tackles and avg 1.14 solo against top level = 2.71 total tackles/game against top competition

I don't believe I missed anything!?

You missed scheme and responsibilities. Too many times sacks, especially in college, are because the defensive scheme is secondary to the athleticism of the team. That's how Miami, Florida State, and those sorts of teams win.

In other schools, it's scheme over athleticism. That's how teams like BYU (in the '80's and '90's), Stanford, Fresno State, etc.,won games. By playing the scheme well with less talented athletes.

My sister-in-law, a big-time Cornhusker, would tell you that in Nebraska, the scheme comes first. She would tell you that Carriker did his job, which was read and react and hold the POA while allowing those that surrounded him to make the "glory plays."

So, Carriker, a Top-15ish pick is there because of his play. Not only the imperfect picture you can see from your stats analysis, but what the scouts saw (and you didn't) from the game film and picked up from their interviews with the Nebraska coaching staff.

And, FWIW, it's not that I'm against stats. Truth be told, they have explanatory power and are helpful, at times, in explaining things to dunderheads. But you have to watch film and understand the environment the player is playing in and try to understand what happens with the player ON EVERY PLAY. And then you can see the stats IN CONTEXT.

If a DE holds the POA and it allows someone else to make a LOS/Negative tackle, he gets nothing on the stat sheet. Someone else gets the glory. But the DE has won the battle so the team can win the war.

OTOH, if an OLB blitzs all the time and makes 8 sacks, but gives up 20 big plays because he's out of position and can't hold the POA in the run game, he's a failure in my eyes. Even if he does go to the probowl because chowderheads just look at the big plays made and fail to account for the big plays given up that contribute significantly to the team's 27th ranked defense.

[jaysto]

First off hes a MLB so you cant compare the two

Getting 15 tackles against Auburns offense IMO is like getting it against a very weak div 1 team there offense isnt what makes them good.

Also nobody is saying that Willis doesnt get it done just that he doesnt fit our system as well as Carriker. he will be a beast in a 4-3 in a 3-4 im not so sure

I didnt put Willis numbers up because noobs will come on look at them and freak out about it and plus this was a Carriker thread

Misfitz - Please don't take this as an attack. I keep seeing you say that Willis will not fit our system. Where do you get this idea?? Do you have proof?

I have read many "Draft/Player Experts" and they all say Willis would be BETTER in a 3-4, for example:

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/commentary/view.php?id=544


Everyone states that a big weakness of Patrick Willis as not being able to fight off blocks. Can you elaborate on that a little bit and how does he compare in that regard with other 3-4 ILB prospects?

Colin: Willis is a tallish MLB and he did have a few problems at time staying low and getting thru the traffic but it’s not a major issue. I also expect it would be more of an issue as a 4-3 LB for Willis. Plus he's the kind of guy you could slide outside on 3rd down as a potential pass rusher.

What's your take on Michigan LB David Harris? Do you like him as the 49ers second round pick?

Colin: David Harris is a poor man's Patrick Willis and would be another great pick at #42 but I really doubt he lasts that long; the problem at MLB is that after Willis and Harris, there really is a big drop-off so they will be in demand.

Are there any other 3-4 teams looking to get Willis?

Colin: There are reportedly a number of teams looking at Willis probably starting with Miami at #9; Buffalo right behind the 49ers are also really interested. The scary thing for the 49ers would be if some team picking a little later traded up with say Houston. The consolation prize if you like though if you miss out on Willis, it means that other good players are going to be available at #11

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/commentary/view.php?id=541

How much is the drop off in talent for 3-4 ILBs between Patrick Willis and the next guy compared to 3-4 DEs with Adam Carriker and the next guy?

Michael: First off, a 3-4 question, who would have guessed! There is a much larger drop off in talent. David Harris looks to be the next best 3-4 ILB, and he is a middle 2nd rounder. For the DE, Carriker is not much above the rest, I also think Jamaal Anderson can play 3-4 DE.

Who are the best ILB talents for the Niners’ 3-4 defense after Willis?

Michael: David Harris of Michigan is the 2nd. But Zak DeOssie from Brown is creeping up because of his large size- 6-5 and great speed. Anthony Waters is another ideal 3-4 ILB, and with his injury last season could be a steal.

Michael, you chose Willis over Carriker for the 49ers at #11. What ultimately led you to take Willis there?

Michael: With need and the 3-4 defense I thought Carriker was a more ideal fit at 11, but Patrick Willis is just an amazing player, I see Ray Lewis attributes out of him, and thinks he can be a star, and really make an impact for the 49ers. Also, if the 49ers select him, my preseason rookie of the year.

Is there more value taking Willis in the 1st and then a DE in the 2nd or Carriker in the 1st and an ILB in the 2nd?

Michael: More value with Willis and then DE (maybe Tim Crowder) because Willis is far more better than the 2nd ILB than Carriker is to the next best 3-4 DE.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/commentary/view.php?id=540

Do you think Willis can be sucessful in the 3-4 defense?

Chris: Not to put this to simply, but Patrick Willis is THE can't miss defensive player in this draft and he'll be successful in whatever system he's placed in.

How realistic is it to think Nolan would take a DE like Carriker over a LB like Willis? Will workouts really matter to the coaches more than the work on the field if the 49ers had to choose between the 2 players at 11?

Chris: Well as I said before, everything I'm hearing leads me to believe that if Pat Willis is on the board at #11, he won't be on the board at #12. I don't think it matters honestly. Willis has had the better workouts, but Willis also had a better college career. So the theme of this answer seems to be Willis all the way.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/commentary/view.php?id=537

Do you see Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis being as successful in the 3-4 scheme as he can be in the 4-3?

Drew: Willis will be more successful in a 3-4 than a 4-3 because he's not that good in the passing game and can be covered up in a 3-4.


Can you responded to this comments? Thanks!

[Bdogg]

I will take 5-7 sacks from our DE any day of the week as long as he is doing his primary job which is controling the o-line. Shoot, if he is getting that kind of pressure what will our lb's be getting!:dance2: D-line first and foremost in this draft.

[Ace Matherton]

However, I'm not gonna put forth a thesis without proof. I did some analysis of Carriker's stats for 2006, and came up with some very interesting results. Now, I realize that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they do tell part of the story.


The problem with statistics are they only tell the story that the person who used them wants. His stock really rose due to the senior bowl not the combine. His combine performance only solidified what he showed at the SB. He was a first rounder already and moved from 20-32 status to top 15. You wont find too many 3-4 DE's with stats because their main objective is to free up their LB counterparts.

[G4LIFE]

Stats like tackles and sacks for a 3-4 DE are arbitrary.

If they played the game on paper, you got a point. But they don't. They don't keep stats that would accurately describe what this guy brings to the defense.

Excellent Point, 3-4 D-lineman are the most underappreciated people on defense.

Adam Carriker = Taking on Blockers = Better Pass Rush = Sacks/QB Hurries = Better Secondary Play = IMPROVED OVERALL DEFENSE

Carriker won't get alot of sacks or tackles in a season but will do his job and will improved the defense from an overall standpoint.

[MisfitZ]

Let's take a look at some of the stats of 3-4 DEs who are part of the better 3-4 teams around the league and see what kind of stats they put up..(I'll bold the sack numbers)
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
New England:Ty Warren 15 84 56.0 28 7.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 4
Richard Seymour 16 40 22.0 18 4 1 0 0.0 0 0 7

San Diego: Luis Castillo 10 37 28.0 9 7 1 1 1.0 1 0 0
Igor Olshansky 13 33 18.0 15 1.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

Pittsburgh: Aaron Smith 16 61 44.0 17 4.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Brett Keisel 16 55 38.0 17 5.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 4

Dallas: Marcus Spears 16 45 29.0 16 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 2
Chris Canty 16 33 24.0 9 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 1


So from the top 4 3-4 teams in the league, the most sacks was by Ty Warren at 7.5. You can make an argument for Luis Castillo and say he could have cracked double digit sacks if he played more than 10 games last season. The point I'm trying to make is, these guys aren't exactly considered sack machines BUT they are essential to their teams success despite not getting a JABILLION sacks like some posters on here want from a 3-4 DE.

Another argument laid out was, we can find guys in the other rounds to fill in our 3-4 DE needs. Well, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Luis Castillo, and Marcus Spears were all drafted in the 1st round. Igor Olshansky was drafted in the top of the 2nd round. Chris Canty was drafted in the 4th and the Steelers duo was drafted in the 7th round. 3 out of the 4 top 3-4 teams have DE's drafted in the 1st round of the draft, which should tell you something. It ain't easy finding these guys in the latter portions of the draft.

One last thing. How did Ray Lewis do in the 3-4 without a dominating front 3?? How did less heralded linebackers (Tedy Bruschi is NOT on the level of Ray Lewis) on the Patriots do with a strong d-line? How do you think Patrick Willis is going to do? If we ran a 4-3, I'll be all for grabbing him. I just feel like his talents would be wasted on a 3-4 defensive team like ours.

I know people want guys with more upside such as Okoye, Anderson and Branch. What if these guys never reach their potential? At least we know what we are getting with Carriker. He will give us about 5 sacks a year but he will free up our hopefully agressive linebacker unit and give right tackles, right guards and centers fits for the next decade.

If Laron Landry falls to us though, all bets are off.

Can't wait for the draft to find out if I'm just a jerk for being so Pro-Carriker (or more like pro-DE/DT in the first round) after we select Patrick Willis or Robert Meachem.
Great Post agent

[49BY97]

I didnt put Willis numbers up because noobs will come on look at them and freak out about it and plus this was a Carriker thread


Well you just mentioned that Willis would have to be able to blitz and I think that with 11 sacks and with the athletic ability he possesses, then blitzing is something he could defiantely do in a 3-4. Please don't take me as the kind of person who is in love with Willis or any player for that matter. I think it's a shame that the message board is divided in half between Willis and Carriker and I think it's even more a shame that the Carriker fans don't want to look at Willis and Willis fans don't want to look at Carriker. I could go either way as of today. I think Carriker would shore up our D-line but I also think that Willis could be the kind of spark plug playmaker that defines our defense for the next ten years.

[jaysto]

the people that don't want Willis don't want him because they don't think his skill set fits the system. the people that don't like Carriker don't dispute he fits the system but think you can find a DE that will be just as productive as Carriker in later rounds. there is a big difference and typical of most fans always wanting the flashy pick.

Ok, here we go again...I posted this for Misfitz and now for you knobs. I for one don't think Willis will have ANY issues in a 3-4 but some people here do but I have yet to SEE any proof of this point. I for one TRUST McNOLAN to pick the right person for our team but some people in here just want talk about one player over the other, which is fine, that's what forums are for. BUT, I do beleive you must back it up with proof and for this I turn to people who do this for a living do to speak, see the coments below, they are made by people who so this for a living. I fix computers, so what do I know??? Maybe Carriker is the perfect fit but maybe Willis is too...Ok, now I am rambling and I will stop now....:gunshoot:

Misfitz - Please don't take this as an attack. I keep seeing you say that Willis will not fit our system. Where do you get this idea?? Do you have proof?

I have read many "Draft/Player Experts" and they all say Willis would be BETTER in a 3-4, for example:

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/...iew.php?id=544


Everyone states that a big weakness of Patrick Willis as not being able to fight off blocks. Can you elaborate on that a little bit and how does he compare in that regard with other 3-4 ILB prospects?

Colin: Willis is a tallish MLB and he did have a few problems at time staying low and getting thru the traffic but it’s not a major issue. I also expect it would be more of an issue as a 4-3 LB for Willis. Plus he's the kind of guy you could slide outside on 3rd down as a potential pass rusher.

What's your take on Michigan LB David Harris? Do you like him as the 49ers second round pick?

Colin: David Harris is a poor man's Patrick Willis and would be another great pick at #42 but I really doubt he lasts that long; the problem at MLB is that after Willis and Harris, there really is a big drop-off so they will be in demand.

Are there any other 3-4 teams looking to get Willis?

Colin: There are reportedly a number of teams looking at Willis probably starting with Miami at #9; Buffalo right behind the 49ers are also really interested. The scary thing for the 49ers would be if some team picking a little later traded up with say Houston. The consolation prize if you like though if you miss out on Willis, it means that other good players are going to be available at #11

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/...iew.php?id=541

How much is the drop off in talent for 3-4 ILBs between Patrick Willis and the next guy compared to 3-4 DEs with Adam Carriker and the next guy?

Michael: First off, a 3-4 question, who would have guessed! There is a much larger drop off in talent. David Harris looks to be the next best 3-4 ILB, and he is a middle 2nd rounder. For the DE, Carriker is not much above the rest, I also think Jamaal Anderson can play 3-4 DE.

Who are the best ILB talents for the Niners’ 3-4 defense after Willis?

Michael: David Harris of Michigan is the 2nd. But Zak DeOssie from Brown is creeping up because of his large size- 6-5 and great speed. Anthony Waters is another ideal 3-4 ILB, and with his injury last season could be a steal.

Michael, you chose Willis over Carriker for the 49ers at #11. What ultimately led you to take Willis there?

Michael: With need and the 3-4 defense I thought Carriker was a more ideal fit at 11, but Patrick Willis is just an amazing player, I see Ray Lewis attributes out of him, and thinks he can be a star, and really make an impact for the 49ers. Also, if the 49ers select him, my preseason rookie of the year.

Is there more value taking Willis in the 1st and then a DE in the 2nd or Carriker in the 1st and an ILB in the 2nd?

Michael: More value with Willis and then DE (maybe Tim Crowder) because Willis is far more better than the 2nd ILB than Carriker is to the next best 3-4 DE.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/...iew.php?id=540

Do you think Willis can be sucessful in the 3-4 defense?

Chris: Not to put this to simply, but Patrick Willis is THE can't miss defensive player in this draft and he'll be successful in whatever system he's placed in.

How realistic is it to think Nolan would take a DE like Carriker over a LB like Willis? Will workouts really matter to the coaches more than the work on the field if the 49ers had to choose between the 2 players at 11?

Chris: Well as I said before, everything I'm hearing leads me to believe that if Pat Willis is on the board at #11, he won't be on the board at #12. I don't think it matters honestly. Willis has had the better workouts, but Willis also had a better college career. So the theme of this answer seems to be Willis all the way.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/...iew.php?id=537

Do you see Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis being as successful in the 3-4 scheme as he can be in the 4-3?

Drew: Willis will be more successful in a 3-4 than a 4-3 because he's not that good in the passing game and can be covered up in a 3-4.

Can you responded to this comments? Thanks!

[Niners408]

The Point of this tread is Carriker Sucks. enough said!!

[jaysto]

yes Jaysto, actually its annoying how you keep posting that. notice how nobody has commented on that and you have posted it atleast 5 times already. to begin, that long post is inaccurate. it makes literally no sense for someone to say a guy has trouble sheading blocks and then say he would be better off in a 3-4 than 4-3. that is just the most ridiculous thing anyone could say when talking about ILB's.

now if your little quote said something about Willis possibly having to move to 4-3 OLB because he doesn't take on blocks well then i would say that makes more sense, but it doesn't. a 3-4 ILB has to take on many more blocks than a 4-3 ILB.

in addition, that quote is full of flaws. Buffalo is not a 3-4 team, and Miami isn't really a 3-4 team either. Plus crowder will not be a 3-4 DE, he would be a 3-4 OLB.

so as you see, your little quote is pretty much a joke with just random statements that don't mean much. i hope someone finds the ranking list that was posted before of 3-4 prospects and Willis was not even on the list at all for 3-4 LB's. does anyone have that list?


WOW...all you can do is personal attacks? Are you a niners fan? No, PROOF once again...it's just YOUR OPINION. I quoted "draft experts" (not saying they know everything) what is in your posts???? NOTHING BUT YOUR OPINION. Who are you? Are you a football coach? Do you play PRO football?

[jaysto]

yes a 49ers fan but i'm not sure how that pertains to this debate at all, in fact i never attacked you personally. but i can't understand why a person would keep posting something over and over again when it is full of flaws and continuously ask people to respond to it.

Hmmm...lets see "your little quote is pretty much a joke" that's pretty demeaning and your "talking down"...So, where's your FACTS? I have yet to see ANY facts from you and your posts. All I see from you is your opinion. I quoted other people, I don't claim to "know it all" unlike you.

[jaysto]

saying your quote is a joke is not a personal attack. its simply discrediting your quote which has nothing to do with you on a personal level. you called me out and asked me to respond to your quote directly so I did. if you didn't want my answer then why did you ask me directly? and i have shown you facts. Miami and Buffalo are not 3-4 teams. Crowder in a 3-4 would be an OLB, not DE. and if Willis does not take on blocks well then he would be a better fit in a 4-3 not 3-4, thats basic assignment stuff. i mean this isn't rocket science.

Ok, this is pointless...again no proof, just your opinion :nolisten: , you know nothing. Bye,Bye.:tease:

[AndyLeeMVP]

Hmm...Smiley, Briggs, Samuel...who's more valuable? (I ask you answer this question without any home team bias).



Oh yeah, hes definitely least valuable on that list. It was just a thought i was throwing out there.

[jaysto]

The Point of this tread is Carriker Sucks. enough said!!

I think Niners408 says it best ^^^:biggrin:

[badass316]

WOW...all you can do is personal attacks? Are you a niners fan? No, PROOF once again...it's just YOUR OPINION. I quoted "draft experts" (not saying they know everything) what is in your posts???? NOTHING BUT YOUR OPINION. Who are you? Are you a football coach? Do you play PRO football?

It happens quite often on these boards that people try to convey their opinions almost like they are actual facts. You just gotta roll with it and let it slide off of your shoulder, otherwise you will just get into long meaningless arguments. Its like being thrown in a C++ loop lol

[knightdreamer]

Ok, this is pointless...again no proof, just your opinion :nolisten: , you know nothing. Bye,Bye.:tease:

Not cool!

Knobs 27 & the Wiz are heavyweights on this MB.
It is unwise for a featherweight to do battle with a heavyweight. You end up looking like a fool!

[badass316]

Not cool!

Knobs 27 & the Wiz are heavyweights on this MB.
It is unwise for a featherweight to do battle with a heavyweight. You end up looking like a fool!

I sure hope you were being sarcastic... LoL

[Mac9er]

I think, not to just interject my opinion, the issue is media hype of a guy like Willis, the truth is, his draft value for a 4-3 defense is much higher than a 3-4.


Compare Willis's career stats, a 1st rounder and a high one at that and a 4th rounder like Ded Harrington who would play inside in a 3-4....

Willis
Career Statistics
Year GP TKL TFL SACK PBU INT
2003 13 20 1.0 0.0 0 0
2004 10 70 11.0 5.0 1 0
2005 10 128 9.5 3.0 3 1
2006 12 137 11.5 3.0 7 0
Totals 45 355 33.0 11.0 11 1

Harrington
Career Statistics
Year GP TKL TFL SACK PBU INT
2002 DNP - - - - -
2003 12 62 10.0 2.0 3 1
2004 11 43 4.5 1.0 0 0
2005 12 73 12.5 3.0 3 1
2006 13 100 8.5 3.5 4 1
Totals 48 278 35.5 9.5 10 3

Harrington is a character guy and bigger. Only 2/10's of a second slower in the 40. So it's about value and the subsequent production given which round they are drafted in. We all want to draft the BPA, but not at the expense of changing our defensive scheme for one player...

Carriker could easily add 10 or 15Lbs and not have much drop off in production for what we need him for in a 3-4... there is a big drop off between him and a 4th rounder...

[jaysto]

Not cool!

Knobs 27 & the Wiz are heavyweights on this MB.
It is unwise for a featherweight to do battle with a heavyweight. You end up looking like a fool!

I sure hope you were being sarcastic... LoL

Yeah, I hope you are kidding!! I don't care who they are (althought I like the Wiz) I am entitle to my opinion just as they are!! And, I wasn't battling if anyone was it was Knobs.... I quoted other peoples opinions and asked why they where wrong about Willis. I have yet to get any proof they these "experts" where wrong, other then knobs saying they are wrong. So, he's a "heavyweight" I should just believe him??? HMMMM.:madgal:

[49ER-EXTREMIST]

GOD!!!!!! GIVE IT UP ALREADY!!!!! YOU GUYS ARE JUST WASTING YOUR TIME!!! NONE OF US HERE KNOWS CRAP!!!!! IT'S ALL JUST OPINIONS!!!!






For this thread to reach 9 pages is just stupid.Just CHILL OUT and wait till next weekend.It's like watching a bunch of retards trying to hump a door nob.:wheel:


The 1st few post,stats and coments was cool,but dammmmmmm.:hunter: :thud:

[49ER-EXTREMIST]

49er-Extremist....its the offseason and we're bored. :banghead:




LOL!!! I know knobs.......me too.Don't take that much into what I said.:chicken:

[jaysto]

49er-Extremist....its the offseason and we're bored. :banghead:

With this I do concur! LOL...I shall say no more! :sflogo: :closed:

[mrTgo49ers]

Mach76:

I enjoyed your post and it was a good read. As big of a supporter of us drafting Willis that I am. I have to say that as a coach I cant read into these stats as much as you have. Here are my thoughts, take them as you will: 1) Adam played better against lower competition which is what we would expect, I would however have liked to see him be a little more dominating and take over games such at the Senior Bowl (where the O-line has only worked together for a couple days). He was never really unleashed and my major questions is, or was he? 2) He may have disappeared in bigger games but part of that you have to believe is due to being a role player and game planning. Better teams have better backs and lineman and thus he is forced to focus more attention to the run and forcing double teams. Though he may not be double teamed he may be following blockers, clogging gaps and taking on lead blockers. Stunts are used to open up blitzing lanes for LBs, safeties and often times, DTs. It is really impossible to know what schemes the DC was calling and the game plan against those major teams. And considering that the Nebraska hasnt exactly been known for its dominating front 7 in recent years my guess it he was forced to play a power role more then an edge role.

All and all, I do think Carriker will be a very a good DE in the 3-4, however my opinion based on what I have seen of him and other guys and knowing the role of a 3-4 DE, is that there are players in the 2nd and 3rd round that wont be much of a drop off from Carriker. My support of Willis comes from both what he did and knowing what I know about schemes to look at that Ole Miss front 7 and see a guy that not only made plays at the point of attack but also chase down RBs going around the edge when the d-line got no push and OLBs were taking themselves out of the plays. That is the type of ILB that makes OCs cringe. Being focused into the 3-4 so that he is primarily responsible for that inside gaps will make him even more dominating because with his size, speed and instincts he can focus on putting his nose in and breaking through the junk before the play even has a chance to develop. His instincts at at the ILB position are simply uncoachable. His intangibles also make him able to improve in his pass defense.


Jay and Misfitz:

I have also posted a lot of these expert arguements about Willis vs Carriker and i guess everyone has to just agree to disagree. Like I said I think Carriker will be a very good 3-4 DE, I just think Willis is the better player and I have him graded much better as well as my feeling is that if both guys are there then Nolan will take Willis over Carriker. Lets not forget his intangibles too. His brother died in a pool recently, he was a foster kid yet and has been through a lot and has florished as what many consider is the most respectful player in the draft (See Frank Gore, Alex Smith, etc.), these are Nolan type of guys, though Carriker has a great attitude too. Anyway, regarding the post, these guys are experts and spend all their time leading up to the draft looking at tape and I have seen the same things that they have that Willis will be a great 3-4 ILB. What you have to be looking at is the schemes of the defense, the abilities up front on the d-line, how teams are game planning, how Wilis reacts to certain situations and where the potential is. I will admit that one thing Willis does need to get better at is playing lower and reacting to a push up front, but the problem with that was that, in his defense he was commonly forced to make the play outside due to inabilities of the OLBs to make plays on the edge. It may have made him a bit gun shy, but this one thing that is easily fixable and a 3-4 scheme is the best way to fix it. Get him focused on the inside. I disagree with the point that he cant fight through trash because I have seen him do it numerous times and infact he has great instincts at taking the proper angles in the trash to be more effective then many ILBs would be at his age. Once he is focused on the inside in a 3-4 this will become even more evident. Anyway, Jay I love reading it, post it a thousand times. And Fitz if you dont like it and you are tired of all the Willis threads then simply dont read them. There is good info there and whether it is Willis, Carriker, Branch or someone else drafted by us on draft day, it is all going to come out again and again. The only person who can stop it is Nolan and that is on draft day when he makes his pick because only he knows best. Jay, I agree you are right that no one has given any evidence that Willis cant do it except for he got taken out by the best FB in the senior bowl on a play in which teams have had 5 days to practice together and his d-line got schooled all day. Eeverything I've seen is that he can do it and we will find out on draft day if he gets his chance. But we may not even get a chance to draft him.

[jaysto]

Mach76:

I enjoyed your post and it was a good read. As big of a supporter of us drafting Willis that I am. I have to say that as a coach I cant read into these stats as much as you have. Here are my thoughts, take them as you will: 1) Adam played better against lower competition which is what we would expect, I would however have liked to see him be a little more dominating and take over games such at the Senior Bowl (where the O-line has only worked together for a couple days). He was never really unleashed and my major questions is, or was he? 2) He may have disappeared in bigger games but part of that you have to believe is due to being a role player and game planning. Better teams have better backs and lineman and thus he is forced to focus more attention to the run and forcing double teams. Though he may not be double teamed he may be following blockers, clogging gaps and taking on lead blockers. Stunts are used to open up blitzing lanes for LBs, safeties and often times, DTs. It is really impossible to know what schemes the DC was calling and the game plan against those major teams. And considering that the Nebraska hasnt exactly been known for its dominating front 7 in recent years my guess it he was forced to play a power role more then an edge role.

All and all, I do think Carriker will be a very a good DE in the 3-4, however my opinion based on what I have seen of him and other guys and knowing the role of a 3-4 DE, is that there are players in the 2nd and 3rd round that wont be much of a drop off from Carriker. My support of Willis comes from both what he did and knowing what I know about schemes to look at that Ole Miss front 7 and see a guy that not only made plays at the point of attack but also chase down RBs going around the edge when the d-line got no push and OLBs were taking themselves out of the plays. That is the type of ILB that makes OCs cringe. Being focused into the 3-4 so that he is primarily responsible for that inside gaps will make him even more dominating because with his size, speed and instincts he can focus on putting his nose in and breaking through the junk before the play even has a chance to develop. His instincts at at the ILB position are simply uncoachable. His intangibles also make him able to improve in his pass defense.


Jay and Misfitz:

I have also posted a lot of these expert arguements about Willis vs Carriker and i guess everyone has to just agree to disagree. Like I said I think Carriker will be a very good 3-4 DE, I just think Willis is the better player and I have him graded much better as well as my feeling is that if both guys are there then Nolan will take Willis over Carriker. Lets not forget his intangibles too. His brother died in a pool recently, he was a foster kid yet and has been through a lot and has florished as what many consider is the most respectful player in the draft (See Frank Gore, Alex Smith, etc.), these are Nolan type of guys, though Carriker has a great attitude too. Anyway, regarding the post, these guys are experts and spend all their time leading up to the draft looking at tape and I have seen the same things that they have that Willis will be a great 3-4 ILB. What you have to be looking at is the schemes of the defense, the abilities up front on the d-line, how teams are game planning, how Wilis reacts to certain situations and where the potential is. I will admit that one thing Willis does need to get better at is playing lower and reacting to a push up front, but the problem with that was that, in his defense he was commonly forced to make the play outside due to inabilities of the OLBs to make plays on the edge. It may have made him a bit gun shy, but this one thing that is easily fixable and a 3-4 scheme is the best way to fix it. Get him focused on the inside. I disagree with the point that he cant fight through trash because I have seen him do it numerous times and infact he has great instincts at taking the proper angles in the trash to be more effective then many ILBs would be at his age. Once he is focused on the inside in a 3-4 this will become even more evident. Anyway, Jay I love reading it, post it a thousand times. And Fitz if you dont like it and you are tired of all the Willis threads then simply dont read them. There is good info there and whether it is Willis, Carriker, Branch or someone else drafted by us on draft day, it is all going to come out again and again. The only person who can stop it is Nolan and that is on draft day when he makes his pick because only he knows best. Jay, I agree you are right that no one has given any evidence that Willis cant do it except for he got taken out by the best FB in the senior bowl on a play in which teams have had 5 days to practice together and his d-line got schooled all day. Eeverything I've seen is that he can do it and we will find out on draft day if he gets his chance. But we may not even get a chance to draft him.


Well said and thank you. :hangloose:

[MisfitZ]

Mach76:

I enjoyed your post and it was a good read. As big of a supporter of us drafting Willis that I am. I have to say that as a coach I cant read into these stats as much as you have. Here are my thoughts, take them as you will: 1) Adam played better against lower competition which is what we would expect, I would however have liked to see him be a little more dominating and take over games such at the Senior Bowl (where the O-line has only worked together for a couple days). He was never really unleashed and my major questions is, or was he? 2) He may have disappeared in bigger games but part of that you have to believe is due to being a role player and game planning. Better teams have better backs and lineman and thus he is forced to focus more attention to the run and forcing double teams. Though he may not be double teamed he may be following blockers, clogging gaps and taking on lead blockers. Stunts are used to open up blitzing lanes for LBs, safeties and often times, DTs. It is really impossible to know what schemes the DC was calling and the game plan against those major teams. And considering that the Nebraska hasnt exactly been known for its dominating front 7 in recent years my guess it he was forced to play a power role more then an edge role.

All and all, I do think Carriker will be a very a good DE in the 3-4, however my opinion based on what I have seen of him and other guys and knowing the role of a 3-4 DE, is that there are players in the 2nd and 3rd round that wont be much of a drop off from Carriker. My support of Willis comes from both what he did and knowing what I know about schemes to look at that Ole Miss front 7 and see a guy that not only made plays at the point of attack but also chase down RBs going around the edge when the d-line got no push and OLBs were taking themselves out of the plays. That is the type of ILB that makes OCs cringe. Being focused into the 3-4 so that he is primarily responsible for that inside gaps will make him even more dominating because with his size, speed and instincts he can focus on putting his nose in and breaking through the junk before the play even has a chance to develop. His instincts at at the ILB position are simply uncoachable. His intangibles also make him able to improve in his pass defense.


Jay and Misfitz:

I have also posted a lot of these expert arguements about Willis vs Carriker and i guess everyone has to just agree to disagree. Like I said I think Carriker will be a very good 3-4 DE, I just think Willis is the better player and I have him graded much better as well as my feeling is that if both guys are there then Nolan will take Willis over Carriker. Lets not forget his intangibles too. His brother died in a pool recently, he was a foster kid yet and has been through a lot and has florished as what many consider is the most respectful player in the draft (See Frank Gore, Alex Smith, etc.), these are Nolan type of guys, though Carriker has a great attitude too. Anyway, regarding the post, these guys are experts and spend all their time leading up to the draft looking at tape and I have seen the same things that they have that Willis will be a great 3-4 ILB. What you have to be looking at is the schemes of the defense, the abilities up front on the d-line, how teams are game planning, how Wilis reacts to certain situations and where the potential is. I will admit that one thing Willis does need to get better at is playing lower and reacting to a push up front, but the problem with that was that, in his defense he was commonly forced to make the play outside due to inabilities of the OLBs to make plays on the edge. It may have made him a bit gun shy, but this one thing that is easily fixable and a 3-4 scheme is the best way to fix it. Get him focused on the inside. I disagree with the point that he cant fight through trash because I have seen him do it numerous times and infact he has great instincts at taking the proper angles in the trash to be more effective then many ILBs would be at his age. Once he is focused on the inside in a 3-4 this will become even more evident. Anyway, Jay I love reading it, post it a thousand times. And Fitz if you dont like it and you are tired of all the Willis threads then simply dont read them. There is good info there and whether it is Willis, Carriker, Branch or someone else drafted by us on draft day, it is all going to come out again and again. The only person who can stop it is Nolan and that is on draft day when he makes his pick because only he knows best. Jay, I agree you are right that no one has given any evidence that Willis cant do it except for he got taken out by the best FB in the senior bowl on a play in which teams have had 5 days to practice together and his d-line got schooled all day. Eeverything I've seen is that he can do it and we will find out on draft day if he gets his chance. But we may not even get a chance to draft him.

I DONT CARE ABOUT ALL THE PWILLIE THREADS.......if you dont like what i post in them how bout you not read them i like carriker so when i guy comes on here to talk ish about him im gonna back my guy just like everyone who backs Willis...........You say that known of us know anything for all you know i could be a scout in fact thats what im pursuing.

Im tired of hearing about his play in the senior bowl. Why you ask? Because he was unblocked the whole time and just chased down rbs he never met them in the gaps to stop em for a short gain he seemingly got all his tackles on the sideline 5+ yards after the line of scrimmage. Also you said he got taken out by the best FB(whos likely to play RB in the NFL) but it was because the teams only practiced for 5 days????? how does practicing with a team for only 5 days factor in to getting owned by a RB one on one?

Everything I have seen on Willis tells me that he will be a PRO BOWL MLB not ILB. First off in a 3-4 your ILBs do not have to be fast and sideline to sideline guys they have to be able to sift through trash and be able to take on an offensive lineman if they have to(everything ive read and SEEN says he cant do this) they have to be able to pass blitz(something he does not do well at all. In coverage he may or may not be good he has very good instincts so he may be alright in coverage.

I think that in a 4-3 he would be fantastic and if he has problems now sifting through trash in a 4-3 its only going to get harder in a 3-4........and supposedly all experts are saying he can play in a 3-4 and what not then why in a Kirwan article when he listed 3-4 ILBs that were the top prospects from the general consensus of several scouts and gms was Willis not on it?

Could Willis play in a 3-4? possibly but I still think he would take away from his strengths and make him less effective and basically leave everyone going well whyd we do that.

Personally I know that if we dont draft him and the Bills do his first good game the board is going to go crazy with the i told you we should have drafted him even though its a completly different scheme

About his brother dying yes it sucks but how many other players have been through the same thing point being? Reggie Nelson played right after his mom died in fact he was going to give up football to take care of her so spare me his sad story.(yes i know i sound like an insensitive *****)

[mrTgo49ers]

I DONT CARE ABOUT ALL THE PWILLIE THREADS.......if you dont like what i post in them how bout you not read them i like carriker so when i guy comes on here to talk ish about him im gonna back my guy just like everyone who backs Willis...........You say that known of us know anything for all you know i could be a scout in fact thats what im pursuing.

Im tired of hearing about his play in the senior bowl. Why you ask? Because he was unblocked the whole time and just chased down rbs he never met them in the gaps to stop em for a short gain he seemingly got all his tackles on the sideline 5+ yards after the line of scrimmage. Also you said he got taken out by the best FB(whos likely to play RB in the NFL) but it was because the teams only practiced for 5 days????? how does practicing with a team for only 5 days factor in to getting owned by a RB one on one?

Everything I have seen on Willis tells me that he will be a PRO BOWL MLB not ILB. First off in a 3-4 your ILBs do not have to be fast and sideline to sideline guys they have to be able to sift through trash and be able to take on an offensive lineman if they have to(everything ive read and SEEN says he cant do this) they have to be able to pass blitz(something he does not do well at all. In coverage he may or may not be good he has very good instincts so he may be alright in coverage.

I think that in a 4-3 he would be fantastic and if he has problems now sifting through trash in a 4-3 its only going to get harder in a 3-4........and supposedly all experts are saying he can play in a 3-4 and what not then why in a Kirwan article when he listed 3-4 ILBs that were the top prospects from the general consensus of several scouts and gms was Willis not on it?

Could Willis play in a 3-4? possibly but I still think he would take away from his strengths and make him less effective and basically leave everyone going well whyd we do that.

Personally I know that if we dont draft him and the Bills do his first good game the board is going to go crazy with the i told you we should have drafted him even though its a completly different scheme

About his brother dying yes it sucks but how many other players have been through the same thing point being? Reggie Nelson played right after his mom died in fact he was going to give up football to take care of her so spare me his sad story.(yes i know i sound like an insensitive *****)[/QUOTE]

First of all, I didnt say that none of us know anything. I never said that, all I said is that these are people that look at this stuff all day too and they know a thing about it as well and they all seem to think Willis will be very good in the 3-4. I take that for what its worth too, because as far as I know they are all Mel Kipers and Kiper continually forgets to include a teams scheme in his draft projections. But my point is that my feeling from eveything that I have seen of him is that he can do the job, you may not see it, but I do. AS far as the senior bowl goes, when you have a defensive line that has only practiced for 5 days there is no continuity, everyone is out ther for them selves and to try and get stats, not to play a rold like fill gaps and take on lead blockers so a LB can shoot the gap and make the play behind the line. Why? Because if he makes the play, then he gets the recognition. Not to mention with the lack of ability to biltz and stunt in the game, it isnt hard for a FB to run free. The game is not a game, thats why scouts dont stay and watch it. I have said over and over that I like Carriker, I go in and read everything people are saying etc. because I think he will be a good player and good pick by us. But I think Willis will be better and flourish in the 3-4. If you look at his scheme in college, he didnt have the advantage of focusing on the middle and shooting into the backfield, that just wasnt a luxury he was afforded on that defense. The things he was able to do considering, astounds me and thats one reason he is rated higher then Carriker on my board. Anyone that would pull the "Neaner neaner neaner" card on drafting Willis if he flourishes in the Buffalo is an ***** because again its a different team and different system. But that doesnt mean he still would not be a good pick for us. And as far as his brother dying and everything he went through as a kid growing up, those are just intangibles that show extra character. Icing on the cake if you will.

[mrTgo49ers]

Part of my point is that I dont think that this is devistating proof that Carriker sucks. He is a great player. All it is is a little bit more of confirmation of what I have seen out of him as to why he is #13 on my draft board. It just further confirms some of my question marks I have on him. With that being said, if we draft him at 11, I would be very happy, but not as happy as I would be if we draft Willis.

[mrTgo49ers]

Nevermind fitz, I got your message, I'll check it out.

[49ER-EXTREMIST]

Just for the record,I'd like to see Willis be our 11th pick.If not then Carriker.Our D-Line is as MUST to be improved and I think it will be,buy the end of the 4th round even "IF" Willis goes #11.This is how I'd feel after we make our picks.........







#11....Willis :hyper:

#11....Carriker :banana3:

#11....Branch :pray: (you better be fricken good or else)

[SB49er4life]

1st bolded part i bolded because you obvisously did not see the senior bowl practices where he was the most dominated Dlineman there

2nd Bolded part he had 7 sacks thats not horrible and lets see good ol patrick willis had ummmm how many and in a 3-4 hes going to have to be able to blitz.


Adams career
26 games 95 tackles 32 tfl 16 sacks 6 PDs 17 qb hurries 1 int 1 blocked kick

No, I didn't see the Senior Bowl practices where he was the most dominant lineman there. Amobi Okoye was hands down the most dominant D-lineman there, so you must be talking about another Senior Bowl.

Your right on the second part, though; 7 sacks is NOT horrible by any means. But is a "not horrible" pass rusher going to improve our pass rush, let alone even worth that high of a pick ?

Patrick Willis has more than enough speed, power, football instincts and burst to blitz; could it be that his sack total wasn't very high because you don't ask 4-3 MLB's to blitz that much, and he had a below average D-line in front of him ?


Look, I understand there is legitimate concerns with Willis' place in a 3-4, but you are just not wanting to accept factual criticism about the player that your supporting. I'm sorry, but Carriker is just not anything out of the ordinary as a pass rusher. There is nothing to support that he is, except "practices" against not even necessarily the best players in the country, the best SENIORS who even bothered to go to the Senior Bowl, and athletic measureables.

[SB49er4life]

I DONT CARE ABOUT ALL THE PWILLIE THREADS.......if you dont like what i post in them how bout you not read them i like carriker so when i guy comes on here to talk ish about him im gonna back my guy just like everyone who backs Willis...........You say that known of us know anything for all you know i could be a scout in fact thats what im pursuing.

Im tired of hearing about his play in the senior bowl. Why you ask? Because he was unblocked the whole time and just chased down rbs he never met them in the gaps to stop em for a short gain he seemingly got all his tackles on the sideline 5+ yards after the line of scrimmage. Also you said he got taken out by the best FB(whos likely to play RB in the NFL) but it was because the teams only practiced for 5 days????? how does practicing with a team for only 5 days factor in to getting owned by a RB one on one?



So the same thing you are using to support Carriker, the Senior Bowl, is the same thing that doesn't prove anything about Willis ?

I'm sure Carriker has never been blown up in a football game ever in college. In fact, that's why he's such a remarkable prospect is because he's the only player in college football history that has never let his opponent beat him. Ever.

I don't know if this post was in response to someone attacking you or anything, but it really sounds like your losing your cool over nothing. There are legitimate flaws and concerns regarding Carriker and it seems that you just don't wanna hear it because it's not supporting the claims YOU are making.

[majesstik1]

No, I didn't see the Senior Bowl practices where he was the most dominant lineman there. Amobi Okoye was hands down the most dominant D-lineman there, so you must be talking about another Senior Bowl.

Your right on the second part, though; 7 sacks is NOT horrible by any means. But is a "not horrible" pass rusher going to improve our pass rush, let alone even worth that high of a pick ?

Patrick Willis has more than enough speed, power, football instincts and burst to blitz; could it be that his sack total wasn't very high because you don't ask 4-3 MLB's to blitz that much, and he had a below average D-line in front of him ?


Look, I understand there is legitimate concerns with Willis' place in a 3-4, but you are just not wanting to accept factual criticism about the player that your supporting. I'm sorry, but Carriker is just not anything out of the ordinary as a pass rusher. There is nothing to support that he is, except "practices" against not even necessarily the best players in the country, the best SENIORS who even bothered to go to the Senior Bowl, and athletic measureables.

I'm not posting to change your mind, or even to say we shouldn't draft Willis, however, there were a few things in this post I felt the need to comment on.

1) Carriker dominated the Senior Bowl practices every bit as much as Okoye. They played different positions during the weak, so I think that may have been to Carriker's benefit. Him lining up at DE against college peers is a mis-match, he's too strong for 22-23 year old LTs. He pretty much threw those kids around all week.

2) In this post, you keep referring to a potential 3-4 DE as a pass rusher, when we know that's not their sole responsibility in that front. As long as we find a DE that can control multiple gaps, push the pocket, and collapse the running lanes, we've found a star in our defensive system. The pass rush would just be icing on the cake. IMO, Carriker is the top option to succeed at all the responsibilities a 3-4 end is asked to perform.

3) Willis is still young, and has room for a few more pounds of muscle, so I don't doubt he could be a success in any defense. The value he'll bring is the ability to line him up at any of the four LB positions. Carriker brings that value to the DL. Either way, we'd be getting a solid prospect. I really like Willis, and think he'll be a star in the NFL, but he's also going to come in and play a position that attracts more noticability. If we were to draft Carriker, and he finished the year with one sack, the n00bs here will throw a fit. But, if we take Willis, and he gets 80+ tackles, and a couple of sacks, he'll be the next great thing in the fan's eyes.

For me, the argument isn't about who fits us better, it's a matter of what kind of value does our front office put on the two positions...or do we value another position greater? For me, there are four solid prospects at different positions I think we'll be targeting: Carriker, Willis, Landry, and Meachem. One, possibly more, of those guys is going to be gone before our pick, so it's going to show a lot about what our front office values most at that slot. Then again, we could end up with Levi Brown, since he's in the same tier as the other guys, just not as much of an obvious need.

[SB49er4life]

I'm not posting to change your mind, or even to say we shouldn't draft Willis, however, there were a few things in this post I felt the need to comment on.

1) Carriker dominated the Senior Bowl practices every bit as much as Okoye. They played different positions during the weak, so I think that may have been to Carriker's benefit. Him lining up at DE against college peers is a mis-match, he's too strong for 22-23 year old LTs. He pretty much threw those kids around all week.

2) In this post, you keep referring to a potential 3-4 DE as a pass rusher, when we know that's not their sole responsibility in that front. As long as we find a DE that can control multiple gaps, push the pocket, and collapse the running lanes, we've found a star in our defensive system. The pass rush would just be icing on the cake. IMO, Carriker is the top option to succeed at all the responsibilities a 3-4 end is asked to perform.

3) Willis is still young, and has room for a few more pounds of muscle, so I don't doubt he could be a success in any defense. The value he'll bring is the ability to line him up at any of the four LB positions. Carriker brings that value to the DL. Either way, we'd be getting a solid prospect. I really like Willis, and think he'll be a star in the NFL, but he's also going to come in and play a position that attracts more noticability. If we were to draft Carriker, and he finished the year with one sack, the n00bs here will throw a fit. But, if we take Willis, and he gets 80+ tackles, and a couple of sacks, he'll be the next great thing in the fan's eyes.

For me, the argument isn't about who fits us better, it's a matter of what kind of value does our front office put on the two positions...or do we value another position greater? For me, there are four solid prospects at different positions I think we'll be targeting: Carriker, Willis, Landry, and Meachem. One, possibly more, of those guys is going to be gone before our pick, so it's going to show a lot about what our front office values most at that slot. Then again, we could end up with Levi Brown, since he's in the same tier as the other guys, just not as much of an obvious need.

Haha, it's not about changing my mind, but I do appreciate intelligent, weighted observations/criticisms/facts. As stated before, I don't have "beef" with Carriker or his supporters, heck, if we draft him at #11, I'll welcome him and support Nolan's decision a 100% because he's an incredible talent evaluator and knows what he is doing.

I know Carriker had a great Senior Bowl week and all, but it's a tough call to say he was better than Okoye when the kid is just embarrassing fully grown men on more or less every drill. I suppose that's left to opinion, though.

I don't think your quite understanding what I mean when I say "pass rush" referring to 3-4 DE's; I'm not talkin about a guy who we're gonna expect to rack up sacks, I'm talking about a guy whose going to command double teams, which IS what you need from that position. I haven't seen any real evidence from Carriker that he can't be blocked 1-on-1, and while good Senior Bowl practices are nice and definitely should be considered, I feel there is a whole lot more to suggest that he doesn't bring that much to the table in terms of even helping to generate more of a rush for us. At least not enough for what you'd expect out of a #11 pick.

The versatility aspect of Carriker that you mention only applies to him in a 4-3 scheme; there is no way he could line up at NT in a 3-4. Unless, we incorporate that hybride 3-4/4-3 scheme.


I could care less about a guys stats, especially a 1st year player. If Carriker gets 0 sacks, but the defense considerably improves its sack total from last year, obviously it means he was a success. For Willis, I'd be more concerned with how he plays on important downs, playing from behind, and the energy level he'd bring to the D more so than number he puts up.


**For the record, I don't have a problem with Carriker, his supporters or anything along those lines for that matter; nor will I be heart-broken if we don't draft Patrick Willis. I just can't sit back and read one players weaknesses blown outta proportion while another player with flaws like any other prospect is being regarded as perfect.

[majesstik1]

When I watched Nebraska this year, Carriker stood out to me before I really knew who he was. The reason he did so was because he was beating double teams. I liked that no matter what the opposition did, he didn't stay blocked (even lined up inside at DT). He found ways to get off the double team, and still reach the QB or RB in the backfield. He showed me he would push the pocket in any scheme. His size, strength and athleticism is a solid mix for us, and would provide us with at least one great DE beyond this upcoming season.He really does translate as the top DE prospect in the 3-4.

Willis is the top LB in the draft...either way we choose, we're going to get a solid player. At #11, ILBs don't get their named called that high if you look at past draft history, but I do think Willis would be worth the selection. Every bit as much as Carriker. For me though, I see more value at ILB in the later rounds than I do for 3-4 end...that's my biggest reason for leaning towards AC.

[SB49er4life]

When I watched Nebraska this year, Carriker stood out to me before I really knew who he was. The reason he did so was because he was beating double teams. I liked that no matter what the opposition did, he didn't stay blocked (even lined up inside at DT). He found ways to get off the double team, and still reach the QB or RB in the backfield. He showed me he would push the pocket in any scheme. His size, strength and athleticism is a solid mix for us, and would provide us with at least one great DE beyond this upcoming season.He really does translate as the top DE prospect in the 3-4.

Willis is the top LB in the draft...either way we choose, we're going to get a solid player. At #11, ILBs don't get their named called that high if you look at past draft history, but I do think Willis would be worth the selection. Every bit as much as Carriker. For me though, I see more value at ILB in the later rounds than I do for 3-4 end...that's my biggest reason for leaning towards AC.

Like I said before, if Carriker is who we choose, I'm all for it because we have excellent talent evaluators for even a knowledgeable fan to sit back and 2nd guess.

Not claiming to be a Carriker expert, in fact I wasn't really sure who he was before this MB, but even his highlight reel that I saw didn't show me anything amazing. Good, solid football, but nothing that would suggest "this guy is going to be amazing". I try to make an assessment based off of every that I see and gather myself, not just biased opinions by others, ya know ? Kinda like "Never ask a salesman if his product his the best".

Prototypically speaking, yes, Carriker is the best 3-4 DE in the draft, but I honestly think Okoye would make much more of an impact for us at the position, and is more versatile in a 3-4. We're talkin about a 19 year old All-American who is gonna be MUCH better by the team he is an NFL vet vs. a solid guy who fits excellently on paper, but is still yet to be determined how he actually plays out in a 3-4.

I do agree completely that there is a very sharp drop-off in 3-4 DE talent after him, and there is much better ILB depth later on, but I'm still on a firm believer in drafting the BPA. I don't think Carriker will be the BPA for us at #11.


What do you think about Quinn Pittcock out of Ohio St. as an end in a 3-4 ? I read a scouting report on him suggesting he would be a decent fit in that scheme, he's got excellent size and is supposed to be a hard working, good kid.

[MisfitZ]

Like I said before, if Carriker is who we choose, I'm all for it because we have excellent talent evaluators for even a knowledgeable fan to sit back and 2nd guess.

Not claiming to be a Carriker expert, in fact I wasn't really sure who he was before this MB, but even his highlight reel that I saw didn't show me anything amazing. Good, solid football, but nothing that would suggest "this guy is going to be amazing". I try to make an assessment based off of every that I see and gather myself, not just biased opinions by others, ya know ? Kinda like "Never ask a salesman if his product his the best".

Prototypically speaking, yes, Carriker is the best 3-4 DE in the draft, but I honestly think Okoye would make much more of an impact for us at the position, and is more versatile in a 3-4. We're talkin about a 19 year old All-American who is gonna be MUCH better by the team he is an NFL vet vs. a solid guy who fits excellently on paper, but is still yet to be determined how he actually plays out in a 3-4.

I do agree completely that there is a very sharp drop-off in 3-4 DE talent after him, and there is much better ILB depth later on, but I'm still on a firm believer in drafting the BPA. I don't think Carriker will be the BPA for us at #11.


What do you think about Quinn Pittcock out of Ohio St. as an end in a 3-4 ? I read a scouting report on him suggesting he would be a decent fit in that scheme, he's got excellent size and is supposed to be a hard working, good kid.

if im not mistaken Okoye was a second team all american

[Ness]

Mike Mayock had some really nice things to say about Carriker. And I think I trust his judgment. He could really upgrade our defensive line. I wonder...if we did pick him, would he start opposite Bryant Young? Or Marques Douglas? I know Young is going to be in a reduced role this season.

[MisfitZ]

Mike Mayock had some really nice things to say about Carriker. And I think I trust his judgment. He could really upgrade our defensive line. I wonder...if we did pick him, would he start opposite Bryant Young? Or Marques Douglas? I know Young is going to be in a reduced role this season.

He would play in Marques douglas's spot at LDE

[ftn49]

It probably wouldn't matter to much, I would immagine they would have a pretty good rotation going on, the "back up" would get more than enough playing time.

But it could be the rookie that starts on the bench.

[SB49er4life]

if im not mistaken Okoye was a second team all american

Still an All-American.

[rygeorge]

doesn't Douglas play RDE?

He does but a SF Chronicle story a few months ago said Nolan wants to switch the projected starters of Young and Fields. He wanted Fields at LDE and the quicker Young at RDE. I'm not sure, then, where Douglas would play or Oliver.

[euronimous]

Thank you ive been tryin to say this for awhile. Before the senior bowl and the combine i really liked him in the 3rd. Now they have him goin in the top 10, lol. I use to watch the huskers a lot too. I like carriker but not in the first. These guys get prepared for the combine so you really shouldnt rely on the numbers that they put up, u need to rely on the tape. Carriker is a good prospect but takin him in the first with the 11th pick is way too high. People jus jumped on the carriker badwagon, they probaly know nothing about him except from the senior bowl and combine. People have really high expectations for him, he'll be good but hes not gonna post double digit sacks like a top 10 DE is drafted to do. I think it would be a real waste to use the 11th pick on him. Willis number 11.

I have to agree that Carriker might be a bit overrated. I'd still like to have him on our team but I am questioning if any of these top defensive prospects that we'll be looking at are really worth a #11 pick. I think alot of these defensive prospects are mid first rounders and have continually crawled up the the board since even before the combine. Carriker, Okoye, Willis, were all mid to even late first rounders and mysteriously kept climbing. Same goes for a couple of the WR's. Meachum was a prospect in the second round at one time, and now looks as though he'll go top 20 possibly top 15. I think the hype machine does in fact get worse every year.

[FranktheTank]

He does but a SF Chronicle story a few months ago said Nolan wants to switch the projected starters of Young and Fields. He wanted Fields at LDE and the quicker Young at RDE. I'm not sure, then, where Douglas would play or Oliver.

Douglas played RDE last year and will be a rotaional or starting RDE this year. That's all that really needs to be said.

[majesstik1]

I have to agree that Carriker might be a bit overrated. I'd still like to have him on our team but I am questioning if any of these top defensive prospects that we'll be looking at are really worth a #11 pick. I think alot of these defensive prospects are mid first rounders and have continually crawled up the the board since even before the combine. Carriker, Okoye, Willis, were all mid to even late first rounders and mysteriously kept climbing. Same goes for a couple of the WR's. Meachum was a prospect in the second round at one time, and now looks as though he'll go top 20 possibly top 15. I think the hype machine does in fact get worse every year.

I think fans are just so behind in getting information that when NFL front offices begin to leak values on some prospects that the casual fan hasn't heard of, they perceive it as "hype". Honestly, there is no such thing as "hype" for NFL teams. They do a lot of homework on these guys, and many of the prospects have been on their radar long before the fans hear about them.

Meachem has been a top 20 player all year. If you would like, you can go back to some October posts in the NCAA forum, and even see that fans here were already discussing that...before the "hype" picked up. Hype is a bunch of crap that makes people feel better for being naive to the actual process, and are just depending on front office leaks to generate leads.

[MisfitZ]

I think fans are just so behind in getting information that when NFL front offices begin to leak values on some prospects that the casual fan hasn't heard of, they perceive it as "hype". Honestly, there is no such thing as "hype" for NFL teams. They do a lot of homework on these guys, and many of the prospects have been on their radar long before the fans hear about them.

Meachem has been a top 20 player all year. If you would like, you can go back to some October posts in the NCAA forum, and even see that fans here were already discussing that...before the "hype" picked up. Hype is a bunch of crap that makes people feel better for being naive to the actual process, and are just depending on front office leaks to generate leads.

word! lol

Now the top guys are guys we have been discussing all year