2nd overall pick dilemna

[Nevyn]

So we've just established the order for the fantasy draft in one of my leagues for next week, and I'm 2nd overall. Here's the relevant info:

12 teams

Rosters:
QB
RB
RB/WR
WR
WR
WR/TE
K
DEF

Points
QB 1 / 25 yds, 6 per TD, -2 INT, - 2fum
Rushing 1/10yd 6 per TD, -2 fum
Receiving 1/10yd 6 per TD, 0.2 per catch

Assuming LT goes first (if not its easy, this is how I break down my choices):

Stephen Jackson: The safe pick. Durable and productive with a stable offense from last year. Lots of catches and total yards and respectable TDs, but has never put up the monster TD years LJ and Alexander have.

Frank Gore: The homer pick. He is also a safe pick and it feels like a crime to pass on him with an opportunity to get him, but unless he has a ridiculous TDs breakthrough, he really shouldn't go ahead of Jackson.

Larry Johnson/Shaun Alexander: The swing for the fences picks. Both have a history of FF dominance with seasons of ridiculous TD production carrying their teams. Picking this early in a 12 team league, that is the type of year I need. LJ has seen his line get worse again and could be playing with Brodie Croyle, but in spite of bad line and QB injuries last year, he still put up more points than anyone but LT I believe.

I will probably take Jackson but I really loathe this position. I don't want to end up with just a "solid" back and have the guy picking 4th get a monster season, and I hate passing on Gore, but I've never been one to reach for homer picks.

Suggestions?

[TheGame]

So we've just established the order for the fantasy draft in one of my leagues for next week, and I'm 2nd overall. Here's the relevant info:

12 teams

Rosters:
QB
RB
RB/WR
WR
WR
WR/TE
K
DEF

Points
QB 1 / 25 yds, 6 per TD, -2 INT, - 2fum
Rushing 1/10yd 6 per TD, -2 fum
Receiving 1/10yd 6 per TD, 0.2 per catch

Assuming LT goes first (if not its easy, this is how I break down my choices):

Stephen Jackson: The safe pick. Durable and productive with a stable offense from last year. Lots of catches and total yards and respectable TDs, but has never put up the monster TD years LJ and Alexander have.

Frank Gore: The homer pick. He is also a safe pick and it feels like a crime to pass on him with an opportunity to get him, but unless he has a ridiculous TDs breakthrough, he really shouldn't go ahead of Jackson.

Larry Johnson/Shaun Alexander: The swing for the fences picks. Both have a history of FF dominance with seasons of ridiculous TD production carrying their teams. Picking this early in a 12 team league, that is the type of year I need. LJ has seen his line get worse again and could be playing with Brodie Croyle, but in spite of bad line and QB injuries last year, he still put up more points than anyone but LT I believe.

I will probably take Jackson but I really loathe this position. I don't want to end up with just a "solid" back and have the guy picking 4th get a monster season, and I hate passing on Gore, but I've never been one to reach for homer picks.

Suggestions?

i'm in the same spot as you...I'm going S-jack he will put up monster total yards and should get around 15 total TD's....LJ is too big of a risk and Alexander I wouldnt take till pick 5 or 6. Gore is great but i dont see him matching Jackson in TD's

[DUNCAN51NICK]

I'm in the exact same situation. I think I'm going to take Jackson, then trade him for Gore and get an upgrade at a different position.

[MasterShake]

Jackson is the easy EASY pick.....there is no other choice at #2.

[Ace Matherton]

With .2 reception point SA should not even be in the discussion, personally i could not fathom picking anyone other than SJ there with that set up and point structure. Gore to me is more of a question without any more upside than SJ and LJ is a risk with the best upside but for me too many o line issues.

[Nevyn]

With .2 reception point SA should not even be in the discussion, personally i could not fathom picking anyone other than SJ there with that set up and point structure. Gore to me is more of a question without any more upside than SJ and LJ is a risk with the best upside but for me too many o line issues.

Alexander isn't REALLY in this discussion, he's just in my head, because he is a year removed from 28 tds, and so he and LJ are the ones I'm worried about looking back at the end of the year and saying "I wish I'd taken THAT guy". This year I'd much rather be picking 5th-7th.

I'll probably be a good boy and take Stephen Jackson, but I don't have to like it.

PS. I think I got my 2 leagues messed up and this one might not have the .2 per reception. I'll check when I get home tonight.

[keNbo]

I would take Jackson. If Jackson can continue to improve on his rushing TDs, which he did last year, then I think the pick is justified.

He went from 4 TDs in 2004 to 8 in 2005 and then 13 last year. If you really want to reach for a theory, you could say he is due for +6 TDs over last year, giving him 19. That's a stretch though.

But seriously, I don't see any reason to think he can't/won't improve upon his totals.

[Ace Matherton]

I would not count on SJ or any back to get more than 15-17 total TD's, yes even LT.

[Bdogg]

Jackson is the easy pick here. He will most likely put up 1800+ total yards and at least 15 td's this year. That is a pretty good year for a rb. He as safe a pick as you could get.

[majesstik1]

For me it's a choice between Gore and Jackson. Too many red flags on the other two.

Now, do you want to root for SJ twice a year, and still hope the Niners win, or do you just want to make it easy on yourself?

[majesstik1]

I'm in the exact same situation. I think I'm going to take Jackson, then trade him for Gore and get an upgrade at a different position.

good idea

:ninerh:

[DUNCAN51NICK]

I know, that's why thought of it.:hatwave:

[imabored]

Get Jackson then trade him to the person that gets gore and another player.

[Nevyn]

Get Jackson then trade him to the person that gets gore and another player.

Knowing my league, that simply wont happen.