Picking Shaun Alexander first?

[blackmonk80]

Most fantasy football guides have told everyone to take Shaun Alexander with the first overall pick in your fantasy draft. If you have it. Now, I was actually debating this for a while. Mainly due to the whole Madden curse thing. If I had the first pick, I am more inclined to take LT first. Even instead of Larry Johnson. Just because a departed offensive coordinator and new head coach kind of scare me. The whole super bowl losers curse also looms with Alexander too. So if you had the top pick, which of the big three would you take? Would you ignore the whole curse thing? Or would you risk jeporadizing your entire fantasy football season?

[DeadlyNiners]

I would ignore the curse but still take Larry Johnson as my first.

[9ertotheend]

I wouldnt pick Alexander.. until he fades LT is always my number #1, and then Larry Johnson would be the pther #2 coice... Dont think Alexander will ahve another monster year... especially w/ the loss of Hitchinson.... but you cant knock someone for taking him..

[majesstik1]

LT is my #1, then Shaun, then LJ.

EDIT: Which guides do you have? The two I have (TSN and fanball.com) have LJ #1.

[majesstik1]

I used the ESPN magazine guide. It worked really well for me the year before.

I wasn't impressed with ESPN's last year. It was really outdated. Fanball.com's Fantasy Football Weekly is my favorite guide, they do a good job mixing humor with rankings closer to my own. I buy the Sporting News one for the extra player profiles not found in most others, they also show player's game-by-game box scores on the team pages.

Ultimately, I use my own rankings that I work on year round, but I like to read the mags for something to bide the time until draft day.

[Kamron]

I had the first pick in one league this year, and I took LT. I don't have faith in Shaun to have anything like last season and the curses don't help my faith in him either. I didn't pick LJ because of new coach and aging offense. The Chiefs line has been great even with injuries and has to start faltering eventually, and I think it may be this year. Also, I picked LT because he will have an increased workload which equals more yards and touchdowns, and he's always seemed to be the most dependable.

[Pound th' Rock]

My rule of thumb is to never select players from teams that I don't like. I.E. Shaun Alexander. I don't want to be caught rooting for the Seahawks? Never!

And yes, if I am picking 7th and S.A. is still there I will take him but if I'm third and he's there I'm looking somewhere else. It has worked out for me pretty well and I normally finish 1st-3rd in my leagues. I just never select players I don't like.

[Ronin 49er]

LT will struggle with defenses stacking the line on him until Rivers proves the pass game deserves some respect and he fades late in the season when fantasy is most important. my ranking is:

1. LJ
2. SA
3. LT
Yeah that's my thinking too. I really don't like the way Rivers delivers it sidearm either but let's see if that becomes a factor with the D-line getting their hands up or just in the way more with his limiting technique.

On another note this is my first time playing FF and my backs are S.Alexander, R.Bush, D.Rhodes, M.Drew.

[Montana_Magic]

LDT has seen 8 in the box before. It didn't stop him. I wouldn't worry too much about the change to Rivers, the change to Brees was shakey and it didn't stop LDT from putting up good stats.

[PsychoZombie]

Larry Johnson...........

Herman Edwards is a run first coach, look what he did with an aging C-Mart, made him last 2 full fantasy seasons longer then he should of.

LT has had nagging little injuries the last 2 seasons with a veteran QB, with the possibilities of more carries due to Rivers and defenses keying in on the run LT is going to get banged up MORE then he has been the last 2 seasons. If you pick up LT make sure you grab Michael Turner as insurance, LT is overdue for a injury.

This year is really a bad year for running backs because once you get past the first 4 or 5 top backs all the rest are on RBC teams. One back to get 'em down the field, and another to punch it into the endzone.

So know what your league gives you more points for because having one yardage and td stud and a goalline back is PROBABLY going to be the best for most leagues out there this year. Having 2 yardage and TD studs on your roster this year is going to be almost impossible.

[majesstik1]

Guys, defenses have been keying on LT his whole career, and Brees was shakey until a year and a half ago. That doesn't concern me. Neither do the 'nagging' injuries, cause he's tough enough to play through them. LT is the most complete player in all of football, anyone who passes on him with the first pick is a fool in my book. Plus, he faces OAK and KC for 4 games, not great defenses. He also has TEN, SF, STL, CIN, BUF, and ARI, none of which is capable of shutting him down.

LJ is the glamour pick, and he's not far from being 'Diaper Boy' again when that OL's age catches up, and Herm runs him til the wheels fall off, which could easily be this year. I prefer to see a guy play a full season before risking the #1 pick on him. Sure his numbers looked good, but he also wasn't the main focus of the offense to begin the season. Now, he'll be asked to carry it 350+ times...is he capable? Possibly, but if I had the number 1 or 2, I'd go with the guys I know will get it done...unless this is a keeper league, then I'd move LJ up to #2.

If you want TDs, go with Alexander, if you want consistency go with LT, if you want risk/reward go with LJ.

[PsychoZombie]

Guys, defenses have been keying on LT his whole career, and Brees was shakey until a year and a half ago. That doesn't concern me. Neither do the 'nagging' injuries, cause he's tough enough to play through them. LT is the most complete player in all of football, anyone who passes on him with the first pick is a fool in my book. Plus, he faces OAK and KC for 4 games, not great defenses. He also has TEN, SF, STL, CIN, BUF, and ARI, none of which is capable of shutting him down.

LJ is the glamour pick, and he's not far from being 'Diaper Boy' again when that OL's age catches up, and Herm runs him til the wheels fall off, which could easily be this year. I prefer to see a guy play a full season before risking the #1 pick on him. Sure his numbers looked good, but he also wasn't the main focus of the offense to begin the season. Now, he'll be asked to carry it 350+ times...is he capable? Possibly, but if I had the number 1 or 2, I'd go with the guys I know will get it done...unless this is a keeper league, then I'd move LJ up to #2.

If you want TDs, go with Alexander, if you want consistency go with LT, if you want risk/reward go with LJ.


You have to look at the whole picture though, LT has only missed 1 game in his 5 seasons, and weither you want to believe it or not the past 2 seasons teams have NOT been stacking the box unless it's an obvious running down/play.

The last 5 games last season LT did not break the 100 yard mark and scored only 1 TD.

That's a MAJOR drop off especially when these are playoff weeks for FF leagues.

I'm not saying LT isn't a Top 3 back but 9700+ total yards in 5 years is starting to take it's toll and I am cautious with LT with the first pick because of Rivers and LT's decline over the last month and half of the season last year.

3 years ago I wouldn't worry about 8 men in the box BUT that was almost 6000 yards ago. If Brees was still there I would probably worry less, but he isn't and as we all watched our running game struggle against teams that had no respect for the passing game if Rivers struggles things could get real ugly real quick.

[majesstik1]

Brees didn't play worth a darn until 2 years ago, and even then, it took teams until mid-season to give him any kind of respect. SD hasn't had a capable WR corps during that time period either, just Gates and LT.

I feel ya about the mileage, but it wouldn't worry me too much. I still have more confidence in LT than LJ.

[majesstik1]

When you're playing for money, you've got to take your personal feelings out of it and give yourself to win.

When it comes to elite players, yes, but I have refused to draft Meshawn since he came into the league, and it has yet to bite me.

[PsychoZombie]

The first thing I tell people who have never played FF is that you have to play it as a fan of football not any particular team. I had a league last year that I managed that a friend of mine, a Bears fan, drafted like 11 Bears players and Donovan McNabb. I mean he was the LAUGHING joke of the league. Needless to say he learned his lesson, 1 win, and has done a little more research this year.

I've been playing FF in one form another for about 8 years now and I have to say that this year is the HARDEST one for RB's. After the first 3 picks at RB there is a major decline in RB studs.

ALOT of teams have a RBC approach. I mean Willie Parker is going to be the yardage stud for Pittsburgh, but Staley will get the scores. I use Pittsburgh here mainly because it's THEIR fault Superbowl teams are ALWAYS copied the following season and it's showing this year. Teams are not looking for that home run stud RB anymore they are looking for multiple backs to get the job done which is sending FF into a whole new way of thinking and drafting.

It's definately going to be interesting this year.

[DeadlyNiners]

I agree. LJ should be a beast in Fantasy Football.
For me, it'll be LJ, Shaun, then LT. I would pick Shaun first but that curse kinda worries me. Psycho, I agree with you. This is the hardest year in deciding on rbs.

[majesstik1]

I've been playing FF in one form another for about 8 years now and I have to say that this year is the HARDEST one for RB's. After the first 3 picks at RB there is a major decline in RB studs.

ALOT of teams have a RBC approach. I mean Willie Parker is going to be the yardage stud for Pittsburgh, but Staley will get the scores. I use Pittsburgh here mainly because it's THEIR fault Superbowl teams are ALWAYS copied the following season and it's showing this year. Teams are not looking for that home run stud RB anymore they are looking for multiple backs to get the job done which is sending FF into a whole new way of thinking and drafting.

It's definately going to be interesting this year.

I felt more like that last year. This season, has more clarity to me at the RB position, examples: Ronnie Brown has the job to himself; Caddy has clearly beat out Pittman as the go-to guy; Portis (the elite after the top 3) has Al Saunder's system to rack up points with; Marshall Faulk is most likely going to retire, giving Jackson the reigns (on an offense that will run more); LaMont Jordan has shown he can be a reliable back after stepping out from behind Martin; Rudi Johnson is finally getting workhorse respect in FF circles; Dom Davis doesn't have to worry about Bush, and he gets Denver's offensive scheme :money: . That's ten #1 backs, in most years your lucky to see 7 or 8. This year's first round (and even the begining of the second round) will see all 'redraft' teams get a #1 back.

This is going to be a good year :smile: