12 team format toughest first pick

[Ace Matherton]

What draft position in the first round are you least looking forward to having for whatever reason.

Most boards seem to think #4 because of the drop off after the big three backs and it being a pickem type of choice. Personally I'd love to have that spot becasue i favor much more a player to be taken around there than most "experts". Forgive me for not saying who since i still have to draft with you guys.
I personally think the 5-8 spots are no mans land and would rather be at the end of the round than the middle this year. Your pretty much pushed to take a back but your choices all have major changes/durability/backup issues and it makes me uneasy having a first pick of Brown,Caddy Rudi,Jackson, Jordan, Edge, DD and Co.

[majesstik1]

A lot depends on what kind of league you're in. In keeper leagues, anything in the first is fine, as you have a shot at a franchise carrying back, or Peyton Manning with any of the top 12 selections. For obvious reasons, the top 3 is a golden spot to be, and I'd even extend that to the top 5, as I would be happy with any of the top 5 on my rankings.

In redraft leagues, anything outside the top 5 is a wash. I'd probably prefer to be the 12th pick in a redraft league, just so I could grab two decent backs right away, there will be a fair selection with pick 12 and 13.

EDIT: So to answer the question, I wouldn't want to be picks 6-10.

[Ace Matherton]

it's so true though. people make horrible assumptions that the first round of fantasy is so important that they can't mess up but the truth is that fantasy teams are made and lost in the middle rounds when you can find sleepers and such. plus being in the middle of a round prevents missing out on a run on a position as we have just discussed. basically people at the ends need to start these runs on a position otherwise they get horribly screwed.
I agree to an extent, my belief is you cant win your fantasy league with your first pick (first three really) but you can lose the league with them (if they flop so do you). As far as runs, I dont really pay much attention to them, I'm cognisant of them but I'll take the BPA in most cases regardless of the run on a position and find some trade later (though that does not always work) that works. The only time I'll bite is if I have 1-2 guys left at a tier with more than 1 owner needing that position in between my picks then I usually will over pay so to speak.

[majesstik1]

I agree with Ace, runs have no effect on my strategy, in fact, I love when they happen. I go into drafts with targets, and I know when it's time to pull the trigger. So, when everyone else is chasing a position, I'm still working my draft board to my liking. When you plan ahead, and do a few mock drafts, you'll get an idea of when you need to get certain positions/players, sometimes you got to do it earlier than you originally planned (for instance, last year, I took Caddy in round 1 of a 3 player keeper league, at the 10th out of 10 teams position. People were scratching their heads a little, but I wasn't feeling good about the other guys available, and it worked out just fine), but keeping an eye on everyone else's depth chart clues you into when a run may happen, so you snag the top teir guy before you miss him.

Last year, I had 8th pick in a ten team (1 player keeper) league. Teams 9 and 10 both held over QBs, so I took a RB (Juice) first, and got McNabb in the second. Juice was a bust, and McNabb couldn't finish the season, however, using knob's theory, I was able to draft well throughtout, and still made the superbowl.

So, to say one strategy works more than others depends on situation. If you know what you're doing, you're going to be able to put together a solid team. If you follow runs, you may end up with a roster that you don't like. Preperation, having a plan, and knowing the players is really all you can do, never let other owners dictate how you draft.

[Ice Train]

not true at all, plenty of 'first round' players flop every year and it's even happened to me but i manage to win fantasy league's because the middle rounds. the first round players are so over-rated it crazy especially in order to get a top 3 RB because by the time it snakes back to you the talent is so low. last year i took a risk on Priest Holmes in the first and still managed to win my league even though i didn't land Larry Johnson. but you see plenty of player's seen in the first round flop like Priest, Faulk, Culpepper, Vick, Dillon, and the list goes on every year. personally, the middle rounds are by far the best for me.

I agree on the middle rounds. I look to get as solid as possible players who are consistent in their production, I also love the sleepers. But I think the first round is your best shot at your go to guy, this is where you should be able to get the guy you know will rack up the points every week. Yes there are busts but hey, that's football. I get more pissed when my first pick is a bust than when any other is just because he was my first choice and should be able to carry my team on a bad week.