Safest Position to Draft in the 1st Round in the Last Decade

[FinerNiner]

As we start to consider who the 49ers should draft in the 1st round, let's consider the relative risk of drafting at each position. I've analyzed 2003-2006 and only the first round. I've made the distinction about "starhood" and "busthood." If a player has made a Pro Bowl, they are likely (not always) a "star." If they are a backup or worse, they are a "bust." Major discipline issues (Pacman Jones, Tommie Harris) earn demerits as do serious injury problems.

I have created a risk index (RI) as follows: stars worth 3 points, starters worth 1 point, and busts worth -3 to emphasize the devastation that a bad 1st rounder can cause and the bonus a great one can be ((Star points + Starters Points + Bust points)/Selections). I've also included a Star Index (SI) to show the chance of picking a star (Star points/Selections)

Ranked by RI with SI second:

OG = 1, .5 (Not many chosen)
C = 1, .5 (See OG)
TE = 1, 0 (Safe but no stars)
DB = .90, .35 (2nd Best return with over 1/3 reaching stardom)
LB = .87, .33 (See DB)
OT = .78, .375 (Pretty good in both respects)
RB = .50, .25 (Good but not great as injuries are common at RB)
DT = .36, .15 (Too many total whiffs to make up for a couple studs)
WR = .29, .24 (See DT)
DE = .09, .27 (See DT)
QB = -.21, .33 (Ultimate Boom or Bust position where backups are worth nothing)

What does this all mean? It's all a matter of risk and reward. The 49ers' biggest holes are at ROT, FS, LDE, and QB. It would seem ROT would be a relatively safe pick as the only OT bust was K. Harris. However, the FA pool is deep this year. DB's do quite well too and Mays and Moore have gotten a lot of attention on this board. DE and QB seem pretty risky in the 1st especially since the 49ers have decent placeholders.

The raw data follows:

QB (5 Stars, 3 Starters, 7 Busts) RI= -.21
E. Manning, P. Rivers, B. Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, A. Smith, A. Rodgers, J. Campbell, V. Young, M. Leinart, J. Cutler, C. Palmer, B. Leftwich, K. Boller, R. Grossman

RB (3 Stars, 6 Starters, 3 Busts) RI= .50
S. Jackson, C. Perry, K. Jones, R. Brown, C. Benson, C. Williams, R. Bush, L. Maroney, D. Williams, J. Addai, W. McGahee, L. Johnson

WR (4 Stars, 8 starters, 5 busts) RI= .29
R. Woods, M. Jenkins, M. Clayton, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, L. Fitzgerald, L. Evans, B. Edwards, T. Williamson, M. Williams, M. Jones, M. Clayton, R. White, S. Holmes, C. Rogers, A. Johnson, B. Johnson,

TE (6 Starters) RI=1
B. Watson, K. Winslow, H. Miller, V. Davis, M. Lewis, D. Clark

OT (3 Stars, 4 Starters, 2 busts) RI = .78
R. Gallery, S. Andrews, V. Carey, J. Brown, A. Barron, D. Ferguson, J. Gross, G. Foster, K. Harris

OG (2 Starters) RI = 1
L. Mankins, D. Joseph

C (3 Starter) RI = 1
C. Spencer, N. Mangold, J. Faine

DE (3 Stars, 4 starters, 4 busts) RI = .09
K. Udeze, W. Smith, M. Spears, D. Ware, T. Johnson, E. James, T. Hali, M. Kiwanuka, M. Haynes, J. McDougle, T. Brayton

DT (2 Stars, 8 Starters, 3 Busts) RI = .36
T. Harris, M. Tubbs, V. Wilfork, L. Castillo, M. Patterson, H. Ngata, B. Bunkley, J. McCargo, J. Sullivan, K Williams, D, Robertson, K. Williams, J. Kennedy, T. Warren, W. Joseph

LB (5 Stars, 7 Starters, 3 Busts) RI = .87
J. Babin, DJ Williams, J. Vilma, S. Merriman, D. Johnson, D. Pollack, K. Wimbley, AJ Hawk, E. Sims, C. Greenway, B. Carpenter, M. Lawson, T. Suggs, C. Pace, N. Barnett

DB (7 Stars, 9 Starters, 4 Busts) RI = .90
C. Gamble, A. Carroll, D. Robinson, D. Hall, S. Taylor, A. Jones, A. Rolle, C. Rogers, T. Davis, M. Jackson, M. Huff, D. Whitner, T. Hill, J. Allen, A. Cromartie, K. Jennings, N. Asomugha, T. Newman, S. Davis, T. Polamalu

[odu73]

Overall good job, but...

-G Mankins and Joseph are both stars. (my opinion)
-DT Harris, Wilfork, Castillo are all stars. (my opinion)
-LB Barnett, Suggs, Sims, Hawk, Merriman, Johnson, all stars (possibly vilma and williams)
-WR Roy Williams, Fitz, Evans, Edwards (one so so year), White all stars (my opinion)
- RB almost all but 3 are stars. (Fact)

[9erfanfromday1]

Interesting post, thanks.

[majesstik1]

Nice work. I'd change a few categorizations of the players, but you did a good job coming up with it.

[Nevyn]

Interesting work, but I'd like to see a breakdown of who you consider a star, starter, or bust at OT.

Kwame Harris is starting at LT for the raiders, but is a bust regardless. Gallery is starting, but at Guard, which should make him at least a partial bust. And George Foster is the starter on the NFL.com draft chart, but the Lions drafted Gosder Cherilus to replace him, and I'd certainly call him a bust.

[majesstik1]

Interesting work, but I'd like to see a breakdown of who you consider a star, starter, or bust at OT.

Kwame Harris is starting at LT for the raiders, but is a bust regardless. Gallery is starting, but at Guard, which should make him at least a partial bust. And George Foster is the starter on the NFL.com draft chart, but the Lions drafted Gosder Cherilus to replace him, and I'd certainly call him a bust.

Foster and Cherilus have shared starting duties all year, with Cherilus holding the job last. Foster should be listed in the bust category, IMO.

[49ersRus]

Lets do this again, but for the top 10 picks. The might narrow things down a bit for us.

[FinerNiner]

I didn't include Harris as a star because of his off-field troubles.
You're right about Mankins. I've also given Mangold more cred for his Pro Bowl selection.
I didn't include Hawk or Johnson. They're good but not stars. Maybe next year. Vilma has a better shot in my opinion.
I'll change Foster to bust. You guys are right. I want to "bust" Gallery but he is a starter. K. Harris is not and is a bust.
Edwards has never had over 80 catches. You didn't mention Andre Johnson who clearly qualifies. I didn't include R. Williams because he's never been selected to a Pro Bowl (made it as an alternate one year).
As far as the RB's are concerned, the only player to make the Pro Bowl that I didn't include was Ronnie Brown. He wasn't even considered the starter at the beginning of this year. Like many on this list, he has had serious injury issues. Many of the others are good or great players but do not qualify as stars (players that are elite at their position).

[Nevyn]

-LB Barnett, Suggs, Sims, Hawk, Merriman, Johnson, all stars (possibly vilma and williams)


First of all, 3-4 OLB should be another category from the others.

Secondly, I wouldn't put Hawk or Sims down as stars just yet. Hawk has talent, but like Lawson in SF, they've been taking him off the field on clear passing downs. He has yet to be the guy they expected him to be.

Sims has shown flashes, but I'm not willing to call anyone on that Detroit defense a star.

Vilma has already been a star and a bust, and is now trying to work his way back to star. The short version is 4-3 star, 3-4 bust, with a major injury mixed in for fun.

[moTIGS]

What did Tommie Harris do off the field? I don't remember any issues like that with him.

While interesting, I would hope this doesn't enter into the equation in determining who to pick. Any scout who looks at this stuff is not trusting his own evaluations, and if he can't trust that, I don't want him picking for my team.

It's not like the failure of Kwame Harris makes it more likely that Andre Smith will be a bust. If anything, I think this just indicates which positions are easiest or most difficult to project to the NFL, not how likely a guy is to bust based on his position.